MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF MALARIA VACCINES ON THE CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND NATURAL HISTORY OF PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA: OVERVIEW
Abstract
We report a major project to develop integrated mathematical models for predicting the epidemiologic and economic effects of malaria vaccines both at the individual and population level. The project has developed models of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum that have been fitted to parasite density profiles from malaria therapy patients, and simulations of P. falciparum epidemiology fitted to field malariologic datasets from a large ensemble of settings across Africa. The models provide a unique platform for predicting both the short- and long-term effects of malaria vaccines on the burden of disease, allowing for the temporal dynamics of effects on immunity and transmission. We discuss how the models can be used to obtain robust cost-effectiveness estimates for a wide range of malaria vaccines and vaccination delivery strategies in different eco-epidemiologic settings. This paper outlines for a non-mathematical audience the approach we have taken and its underlying rationale.
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Advanced agent-based malaria models tend to neglect larval habitat representation.
“While widely used in malaria intervention studies (Galactionova et al., 2021), these models tend to neglect the larval habitat representation (Griffin et al., 2010; T. Smith et al., 2006) or rely only on rainfall to quantify larval habitats (Eckhoff, 2011).”
From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as T. Smith et al., 2006
Cites
Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes
Drummond, M. E., Sculpher, M. J., Torrance, G. W., O’Brien, B. J., & Stoddart, G. L. (2005) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198529446.001.0001 · Cited by 13,648 · see citing works
The economic and social burden of malaria
Sachs, J., & Malaney, P. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/415680a · Cited by 2,248 · cited 1× · see citing works
“international trade, but the causal relationships of how malaria delays social and economic advancement of whole societies remain elusive.(35,36) Interdependence of hosts.”
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A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology
Eckhoff, P. A. (2011) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-303 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control
Smith, D. L., Perkins, T. A., Reiner, R. C., Barker, C. M., Niu, T., Chaves, L. F., Ellis, A. M., George, D. B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J. R. C., et al. (2014) · Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · doi:10.1093/trstmh/tru026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Jiang, A., Lee, M., Selvaraj, P., Degefa, T., Getachew, H., Merga, H., Yewhalaw, D., Yan, G., & Hsu, K. (2023) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2023gh000868 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“While widely used in malaria intervention studies (Galactionova et al., 2021), these models tend to neglect the larval habitat representation (Griffin et al., 2010; T. Smith et al., 2006) or rely only on rainfall to quantify larval habitats (Eckhoff, 2011).”
Background
- Authors
- SMITH, T., KILLEEN, G. F., MAIRE, N., ROSS, A., MOLINEAUX, L., TEDIOSI, F., HUTTON, G., UTZINGER, J., DIETZ, K., & TANNER, M.
- Affiliations
- Ifakara Health Institute (TZ)
- Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
- ORCID
- Venue
- The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
- Published
- 2006-08
- Volume
- 75
- Issue
- 2_suppl
- Pages
- 1-10
- ISSN
- 0002-9637 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2186365207
- Cited by
- 225
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 20
- FWCI
- 12.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Travel-related health issues
- Keywords
- malaria vaccine, Plasmodium falciparum, mathematical modeling, parasite density, malaria epidemiology, cost-effectiveness, vaccination strategies, immunity, transmission dynamics, disease burden
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Models, Biological, Plasmodium falciparum, Models, Statistical, Malaria, Falciparum, Malaria Vaccines
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