Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer — China, 2003–2017
Open accessAbstract
Introduction This study reported the trends in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in China, and analyzed the corresponding age-period-cohort effects. Methods Data from 22 population-based cancer registries in China between 2003 and 2017 were analyzed. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using Segi’s world standard population. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and age-period-cohort effects were examined using the intrinsic estimator method. Results The ASIR for female breast cancer exhibited a more rapid increase in rural areas compared to urban areas across all age groups. The most substantial increase was observed in the 20–34 age group in rural areas [annual percent change (APC)=9.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.0%–11.0%, P<0.001]. The ASMR for females under 50 years old remained stable from 2003 to 2017 in both urban and rural areas. However, the ASMR for females over 50 in rural areas and those over 65 in urban areas demonstrated a significant increase, with the most pronounced increase observed among females over 65 in rural areas (APC=4.9%, 95% CI: 2.8%–7.0%, P<0.001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing period effects and decreasing cohort effects for female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in both urban and rural settings. Notably, the cohort effect for incidence displayed a slight upward trend for females born between 1983 and 1992 in rural areas. Conclusions Our study revealed a rapid increase in breast cancer incidence among younger generations and an accelerated mortality rate in older populations residing in rural areas. To effectively address the growing burden of female breast cancer in China, it is essential to develop and implement targeted intervention strategies.
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Substantial geographic and temporal variations in breast cancer mortality in different regions appear to be linked to the level of coverage of essential health services.
“There remain substantial geographic and temporal variations in breast cancer mortality in different regions 54,56 that appear to be linked to the level of coverage of essential health services.57”
From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [54]
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- Authors
- Sun, K., National Central Cancer Registry, N. C. C. C. R. C. F. C. H., Lei, L., Zheng, R., Zhang, S., Zeng, H., Wang, S., Li, L., Chen, R., Han, B., Peng, J., Wei, W., He, J., Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, S. C., & Department of Thoracic Surgery, N. C. C. C. R. C. F. C. H.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Wei, Wenqiang
- He, Jie
- ORCID
- Venue
- China CDC Weekly
- Published
- 2023
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 15
- Pages
- 340-346
- ISSN
- 2096-7071 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10182910
- OpenAlex
- W4365803554
- Cited by
- 27
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 3.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- China CDC Weekly (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Government of Jiangsu Province
- Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Breast Lesions and Carcinomas
- Keywords
- female breast cancer, cancer incidence trends, cancer mortality trends, age-period-cohort analysis, urban-rural differences, young women, older women, cohort effects, period effects, China
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