The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
Open accessAbstract
Abstract. Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this sink to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) contributing simulations to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We used a reduced complexity model based on temperature and moisture sensitivities to analyze the drivers of SOC change for the historical and high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850 and 2100. ESM estimates of SOC changed over the 21st century (2090–2099 minus 1997–2006) ranging from a loss of 72 Pg C to a gain of 253 Pg C with a multi-model mean gain of 65 Pg C. Many ESMs simulated large changes in high-latitude SOC that ranged from losses of 37 Pg C to gains of 146 Pg C with a multi-model mean gain of 39 Pg C across tundra and boreal biomes. All ESMs showed cumulative increases in global NPP (11 to 59%) and decreases in SOC turnover times (15 to 28%) over the 21st century. Most of the model-to-model variation in SOC change was explained by initial SOC stocks combined with the relative changes in soil inputs and decomposition rates (R2 = 0.89, p < 0.01). Between models, increases in decomposition rate were well explained by a combination of initial decomposition rate, ESM-specific Q10-factors, and changes in soil temperature (R2 = 0.80, p < 0.01). All SOC changes depended on sustained increases in NPP with global change (primarily driven by increasing CO2). Many ESMs simulated large accumulations of SOC in high-latitude biomes that are not consistent with empirical studies. Most ESMs poorly represented permafrost dynamics and omitted potential constraints on SOC storage, such as priming effects, nutrient availability, mineral surface stabilization, and aggregate formation. Future models that represent these constraints are likely to estimate smaller increases in SOC storage over the 21st century.
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Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
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A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests
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Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change
Davidson, E. A., & Janssens, I. A. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04514 · Cited by 6,919
Stabilization mechanisms of soil organic matter: Implications for C-saturation of soils
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Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
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Self-citationRobustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1716 · Cited by 1,569
Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire
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Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization
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Carbon input to soil may decrease soil carbon content.
Fontaine, S., Bardoux, G., Abbadie, L., & Mariotti, A. (2004) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00579.x · Cited by 814
Ecological Lessons from Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) Experiments
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Bradford, M. A., Wieder, W. R., Bonan, G. B., Fierer, N., Raymond, P. A., & Crowther, T. W. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3071 · Cited by 894
A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO2
Terrer, C., Phillips, R. P., Hungate, B. A., Rosende, J., Pett-Ridge, J., Craig, M. E., van Groenigen, K. J., Keenan, T. F., Sulman, B. N., Stocker, B. D., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03306-8 · Cited by 690
Understanding the dominant controls on litter decomposition
Bradford, M. A., Berg, B., Maynard, D. S., Wieder, W. R., & Wood, S. A. (2016) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12507 · Cited by 669
Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models
Luo, Y., Ahlström, A., Allison, S. D., Batjes, N. H., Brovkin, V., Carvalhais, N., Chappell, A., Ciais, P., Davidson, E. A., Finzi, A., et al. (2016) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2015gb005239 · Cited by 533
Self-citationThe fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment
Jiang, M., Medlyn, B. E., Drake, J. E., Duursma, R. A., Anderson, I. C., Barton, C. V. M., Boer, M. M., Carrillo, Y., Castañeda-Gómez, L., Collins, L., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2128-9 · Cited by 448
Metadata
- Authors
- Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Randerson, J. T., Hopkins, F., Arora, V., Hajima, T., Jones, C., Shevliakova, E., Tjiputra, J., Volodin, E., Wu, T., Zhang, Q., & Allison, S. D.
- Venue
- Biogeosciences
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2014-04-25
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2341-2356
- ISSN
- 1726-4170 (ISSN-L)
- 1726-4189
- OpenAlex
- W2158704307
- Cited by
- 408
- References
- 11
- FWCI
- 41.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Randerson, J. T., Hopkins, F., Arora, V., Hajima, T., Jones, C., Shevliakova, E., Tjiputra, J., Volodin, E., Wu, T., Zhang, Q., & Allison, S. D. (2014). Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century. Biogeosciences. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014
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