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PreprintCited by 114Marine and coastal ecosystemsAquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton DynamicsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

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Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., John, J. G.·2014·Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bgd-11-11331-2014

Preprint — published as 10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014

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Abstract

Abstract. Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties – zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), were demonstrated to be responsible for the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics already have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production, the primary target of herbivorous mesozooplankton. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice – both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases associated with declining sea ice in the Artic and damped projected NPP declines associated with decreased mixing in the Northwest Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Improved understanding of the complex interactions governing these food web properties is essential to further refine estimates of climate-driven productivity changes across trophic levels.

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., & John, J. G.
Affiliations
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
Corresponding author
Stock, C. A.
ORCID
Venue
Biogeosciences
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2014-07-24
Volume
11
Issue
24
Pages
7125-7135
ISSN
1726-4170 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.5194/bgd-11-11331-2014
OpenAlex
W2156892695
Cited by
114
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 7 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 1
FWCI
5.29
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Biogeosciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Keywords
climate change projections, Southern Ocean, Northwest Atlantic, sea ice decline, spring bloom

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