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Orbital control on late Miocene climate and the North African monsoon: insight from an ensemble of sub-precessional simulations

Marzocchi, A., Lunt, D. J., Flecker, R., Bradshaw, C. D., Farnsworth, A., Hilgen, F. J.·2015·Climate of the Past
DOI 10.5194/cp-11-1271-2015

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Abstract

Abstract. Orbital forcing is a key climate driver over multi-millennial timescales. In particular, monsoon systems are thought to be driven by orbital cyclicity, especially by precession. Here, we analyse the impact of orbital forcing on global climate with a particular focus on the North African monsoon, by carrying out an ensemble of 22 equally spaced (one every 1000 years) atmosphere–ocean–vegetation simulations using the HadCM3L model, covering one full late Miocene precession-driven insolation cycle with varying obliquity (between 6.568 and 6.589 Ma). The simulations only differ in their prescribed orbital parameters, which vary realistically for the selected time period. We have also carried out two modern-orbit control experiments, one with late Miocene and one with present-day palaeogeography, and two additional sensitivity experiments for the orbital extremes with varying CO2 forcing. Our results highlight the high sensitivity of the North African summer monsoon to orbital forcing, with strongly intensified precipitation during the precession minimum, leading to a northward penetration of vegetation up to ~ 21° N. The modelled summer monsoon is also moderately sensitive to palaeogeography changes, but it has a low sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentration between 280 and 400 ppm. Our simulations allow us to explore the climatic response to orbital forcing not only for the precession extremes but also on sub-precessional timescales. We demonstrate the importance of including orbital variability in model–data comparison studies, because doing so partially reduces the mismatch between the late Miocene terrestrial proxy record and model results. Failure to include orbital variability could also lead to significant miscorrelations in temperature-based proxy reconstructions for this time period, because of the asynchronicity between maximum (minimum) surface air temperatures and minimum (maximum) precession in several areas around the globe. This is of particular relevance for the North African regions, which have previously been identified as optimal areas to target for late Miocene palaeodata acquisition.

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Figure 1 Top: orbital parameters for the Messinian derived from the Laskar (2004) orbital solution. Obliquity (green), eccentricity (blue) and climatic precession (red), which is defined as e sin $ , where $ is the longitude of perihelion and e is eccentricity. Bottom: experimental design for the set of 22 late Miocene orbital simulations with 280 ppm atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Simulations are spanned 1 kyr apart throughout this precession cycle. Each simulation is indicated by a number (1 to 22) and all simulations are designed based on the precession cycle, but orbital parameters all vary at the same time, as shown by the dotted line for experiment 22. The precession maximum experiment is indicated as pMAX and the precession minimum as pMIN. Obliquity is expressed both in radians and degrees, and insolation in W m 2 .
Figure 1 Top: orbital parameters for the Messinian derived from the Laskar (2004) orbital solution. Obliquity (green), eccentricity (blue) and climatic precession (red), which is defined as e sin $ , where $ is the longitude of perihelion and e is eccentricity. Bottom: experimental design for the set of 22 late Miocene orbital simulations with 280 ppm atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Simulations are spanned 1 kyr apart throughout this precession cycle. Each simulation is indicated by a number (1 to 22) and all simulations are designed based on the precession cycle, but orbital parameters all vary at the same time, as shown by the dotted line for experiment 22. The precession maximum experiment is indicated as pMAX and the precession minimum as pMIN. Obliquity is expressed both in radians and degrees, and insolation in W m 2 .CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 2 Evolution throughout the precession cycle (indicated in the top panel) of surface air temperature (blue lines) and incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (green lines), both in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and including global means in panel (a) . (a) Annual mean, (b) winter - DJF in the NH and JJA in the SH, (c) summer - JJA in the NH and DJF in the SH, (d) spring - MAM in the NH and SON in the SH, (e) autumn - SON in the NHand MAM in the SH. Note that different scales are used in each panel and that in panel (a) the variation in incoming solar variation is much smaller than in the other panels (less than 1 W m 2 ).
Figure 2 Evolution throughout the precession cycle (indicated in the top panel) of surface air temperature (blue lines) and incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (green lines), both in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and including global means in panel (a) . (a) Annual mean, (b) winter - DJF in the NH and JJA in the SH, (c) summer - JJA in the NH and DJF in the SH, (d) spring - MAM in the NH and SON in the SH, (e) autumn - SON in the NHand MAM in the SH. Note that different scales are used in each panel and that in panel (a) the variation in incoming solar variation is much smaller than in the other panels (less than 1 W m 2 ).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 3 Anomaly plots of SAT between the two precession extremes, where the difference is pMIN - pMAX, in (a) DJF, (b) JJA, (c) cold month mean (CMM), (d) warm month mean (WMM) and (e) annual mean. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white. 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations.
Figure 3 Anomaly plots of SAT between the two precession extremes, where the difference is pMIN - pMAX, in (a) DJF, (b) JJA, (c) cold month mean (CMM), (d) warm month mean (WMM) and (e) annual mean. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white. 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 4 Absolute values of summer (JJA) precipitation during (a) precession maximum and (b) precession minimum, with 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations and anomaly plots of precipitation between the two precession extremes, where the difference is pMIN - pMAX, in (c) DJF and (d) JJA. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white.
Figure 4 Absolute values of summer (JJA) precipitation during (a) precession maximum and (b) precession minimum, with 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations and anomaly plots of precipitation between the two precession extremes, where the difference is pMIN - pMAX, in (c) DJF and (d) JJA. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 5 Anomaly plots of SAT (top panels) and precipitation (bottom panels) between the two precession extremes at different CO 2 concentrations, where the difference is [(pMIN pMAX)400ppm (pMIN pMAX)280ppm]. (a) SAT anomalies in DJF, (b) SAT anomalies in JJA, (c) precipitation anomalies in DJF, (d) precipitation anomalies in JJA. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white.
Figure 5 Anomaly plots of SAT (top panels) and precipitation (bottom panels) between the two precession extremes at different CO 2 concentrations, where the difference is [(pMIN pMAX)400ppm (pMIN pMAX)280ppm]. (a) SAT anomalies in DJF, (b) SAT anomalies in JJA, (c) precipitation anomalies in DJF, (d) precipitation anomalies in JJA. Differences with significance outside of the 99 % confidence interval ( T test) are represented in white.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 6 Phasing of SAT throughout a full precession cycle. Each colour indicates the temporal offset from the maximum/minimum SAT per model grid square for (a) warm-month maximum SAT (maximum SAT) and (b) cold-month minimum SAT (minimum SAT). Simulations are indicated on the left and in relation to the precession cycle, as shown in Fig. 1b.
Figure 6 Phasing of SAT throughout a full precession cycle. Each colour indicates the temporal offset from the maximum/minimum SAT per model grid square for (a) warm-month maximum SAT (maximum SAT) and (b) cold-month minimum SAT (minimum SAT). Simulations are indicated on the left and in relation to the precession cycle, as shown in Fig. 1b.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 7 (a) -(d) Illustrative definition of model-data mismatch and overlap. (e) Definition of orbital, model, and data ranges. (f) Model-data mismatch is defined as the minimum possible distance to overlap, but here we show that the maximum possible differences could be much greater if the true values for both the model and the data were to lie at the extremes of the uncertainty ranges (Bradshaw et al., 2012a). Note that the relative contributions of model and data uncertainties will vary depending on the variable analysed and for each experiment. The real values are not indicated here as this figure is schematic.
Figure 7 (a) -(d) Illustrative definition of model-data mismatch and overlap. (e) Definition of orbital, model, and data ranges. (f) Model-data mismatch is defined as the minimum possible distance to overlap, but here we show that the maximum possible differences could be much greater if the true values for both the model and the data were to lie at the extremes of the uncertainty ranges (Bradshaw et al., 2012a). Note that the relative contributions of model and data uncertainties will vary depending on the variable analysed and for each experiment. The real values are not indicated here as this figure is schematic.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 8 (ia-id) Difference between model-data comparison including orbital variability and using modern orbit with 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations. (iia-iid) Discrepancy between Messinian proxy data and model output including orbital variability at 280 ppm. (iiia-iiid) Discrepancy between Messinian proxy data and model output with 400 ppm (precession extremes only). (iva-ivd) Difference between model-data comparison with 400 ppm (precession extremes only) and 280 ppm (full precession cycle variability). A version of this figure with alternative colours is available in the Supplement (Fig. S6).
Figure 8 (ia-id) Difference between model-data comparison including orbital variability and using modern orbit with 280 ppm CO 2 concentrations. (iia-iid) Discrepancy between Messinian proxy data and model output including orbital variability at 280 ppm. (iiia-iiid) Discrepancy between Messinian proxy data and model output with 400 ppm (precession extremes only). (iva-ivd) Difference between model-data comparison with 400 ppm (precession extremes only) and 280 ppm (full precession cycle variability). A version of this figure with alternative colours is available in the Supplement (Fig. S6).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 9 (a) SAT and (b) precipitation difference between minimum (pMIN) and maximum (pMAX) precession during the monsoon season (JJAS). The dashed boxes in (a) illustrate how North Africa is split in two areas, northern 'box' and southern 'box', for analysis (where only the land component is considered these are defined as northern region and southern region). Latitudes and longitudes for the southern 'box' are defined according to Thorncroft and Lamb (2005) for the West African monsoon. Absolute values for the monsoon season (JJAS) precipitation at (c) precession minimum and (d) precession maximum.
Figure 9 (a) SAT and (b) precipitation difference between minimum (pMIN) and maximum (pMAX) precession during the monsoon season (JJAS). The dashed boxes in (a) illustrate how North Africa is split in two areas, northern 'box' and southern 'box', for analysis (where only the land component is considered these are defined as northern region and southern region). Latitudes and longitudes for the southern 'box' are defined according to Thorncroft and Lamb (2005) for the West African monsoon. Absolute values for the monsoon season (JJAS) precipitation at (c) precession minimum and (d) precession maximum.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 10 SAT and precipitation seasonal distribution over North Africa (averaged over land in the northern and southern 'boxes', as indicated in Fig. 8) for the two precession extremes (pMIN and pMAX) at 280 ppm, precession minimum at 400 ppm and the two control experiments (late Miocene and preindustrial at 280 ppm). Differences due to orbits, palaeogeography and CO 2 concentrations are highlighted by the vertical bars relative to the month of August when the seasonal distribution is not varying. Note that the scales in panel (b) and (d) are not the same, due to the strong differences in the amount of precipitation. Dashed lines in panel (d) represent precipitation in the northern region (from panel b ) on the same scale as precipitation in the southern region; the simulation-colour correspondence is the same as in the other panels.
Figure 10 SAT and precipitation seasonal distribution over North Africa (averaged over land in the northern and southern 'boxes', as indicated in Fig. 8) for the two precession extremes (pMIN and pMAX) at 280 ppm, precession minimum at 400 ppm and the two control experiments (late Miocene and preindustrial at 280 ppm). Differences due to orbits, palaeogeography and CO 2 concentrations are highlighted by the vertical bars relative to the month of August when the seasonal distribution is not varying. Note that the scales in panel (b) and (d) are not the same, due to the strong differences in the amount of precipitation. Dashed lines in panel (d) represent precipitation in the northern region (from panel b ) on the same scale as precipitation in the southern region; the simulation-colour correspondence is the same as in the other panels.CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 11
CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 12
CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 13 SAT (a, b) and precipitation (c, d) evolution throughout the simulated precession cycle, in the northern (left) and southern (right) regions. (a-d) Annual means relative to the corresponding panel above. On the horizontal axis is the geological time, represented by the 22 orbital experiments plotted with respect to climatic precession. In panels (a) and (d) the black dashed line highlights during which month the maximum value of temperature or precipitation, respectively, is reached. Note that panel (c) is not on the same scale as panel (d) , as all the values are below 0.86 mm day 1 (lowest contours and orange colours in panel d ). Also note that the four annual mean panels are not on the same scale, as their aim is to show the phasing with orbital forcing rather than to compare the actual values.
Figure 13 SAT (a, b) and precipitation (c, d) evolution throughout the simulated precession cycle, in the northern (left) and southern (right) regions. (a-d) Annual means relative to the corresponding panel above. On the horizontal axis is the geological time, represented by the 22 orbital experiments plotted with respect to climatic precession. In panels (a) and (d) the black dashed line highlights during which month the maximum value of temperature or precipitation, respectively, is reached. Note that panel (c) is not on the same scale as panel (d) , as all the values are below 0.86 mm day 1 (lowest contours and orange colours in panel d ). Also note that the four annual mean panels are not on the same scale, as their aim is to show the phasing with orbital forcing rather than to compare the actual values.CC-BY · From the PDF

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Metadata

Authors
Marzocchi, A., Lunt, D. J., Flecker, R., Bradshaw, C. D., Farnsworth, A., & Hilgen, F. J.
ORCID
Venue
Climate of the Past
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2015-10-01
Volume
11
Issue
10
Pages
1271-1295
ISSN
1814-9332
DOI
10.5194/cp-11-1271-2015
Cited by
55
References
0
Language
en
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (vor)

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Orbital control on late Miocene climate and the North African monsoon: insight from an ensemble of sub-precessional simulations. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.5194/cp-11-1271-2015
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Marzocchi, A., Lunt, D. J., Flecker, R., Bradshaw, C. D., Farnsworth, A., & Hilgen, F. J. (2015). Orbital control on late Miocene climate and the North African monsoon: insight from an ensemble of sub-precessional simulations. Climate of the Past. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1271-2015