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PreprintCited by 5Ocean Acidification Effects and ResponsesCO2 Sequestration and Geologic InteractionsCalcium Carbonate Crystallization and Inhibition

Biological thresholds for marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR): the effect of changes in carbonate chemistry

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McElhany, Paul, Cape, Mattias, Faucher, Giulia, Frieder, Christina, Hemery, Lenaïg G., Iglesias-Rodriguez, Debora, Murray, Christopher S., Noble, Wesley·2026
DOI 10.5194/egusphere-2026-1597
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Abstract

Abstract. Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) encompasses a variety of approaches to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere, which, given current and projected emissions, is necessary to keep global average temperature increases to less than 2 °C. In addition to the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, mCDR projects would have effects on the marine environment, including changes in ocean carbonate chemistry. These changes in carbonate chemistry can affect marine organisms through multiple physiological pathways. Although research on the effects of ocean acidification over the last fifteen years has advanced understanding of the effects of low pH/high CO2 conditions on marine organisms, much less is known about organismal response to the high pH/low CO2 or high alkalinity conditions that can be generated by some mCDR methods. We created a database of available information on marine species response to the carbonate chemistry conditions that can be generated by mCDR with a focus on identifying carbonate chemistry thresholds at which biological responses occur. The database contains 310 studies, from which we estimated 276 thresholds. In addition to all mCDR studies available to date, we reviewed studies not explicitly designed to address mCDR. These studies used natural and artificially manipulated variations in carbonate chemistry, including increasing pH and alkalinity, to explore basic physiological and biological responses as well as approaches to mitigate ocean acidification. In analyzing the database, we considered a variety of biological responses, both positive and negative, and considered sensitivity by taxa, exposure duration, treatment method and other factors. Using practical definitions of a threshold, including one based on the treatment level leading to the first statistically significant biological response, we describe the distribution of pH and alkalinity threshold values. The data reveal a high tolerance for high pH (>12) and high alkalinity for some species responses under some experimental conditions, but negative response to experimental conditions only slightly above ambient (pH 8.3) for other species responses. A positive effect of pH above ambient levels was observed in six cases, just 3 % of the total. We summarize results by presenting the distributions of threshold estimates collected from individual studies. The uncertainty and variation in organismal response represents a challenge for the development of management guidelines for the developing mCDR industry. Building on our review of existing studies, we suggest several paths forward for improved biological threshold estimates for mCDR-relevant carbonate chemistry conditions.

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  • Existing studies report variable biological responses, ranging from substantial shifts in plankton biomass and community structure to negligible ecological effects under different OAE scenarios.

    “Existing studies report variable biological responses, ranging from substantial shifts in plankton biomass and community structure to negligible ecological effects under different OAE scenarios (Guo et al., 2025; McElhany et al., 2026; Sánchez et al., 2024; Xin et al., 2024).”

    From Biogeochemical responses to ocean alkalinity enhancement in the North China Sea (2026) · cites this paper as McElhany et al., 2026

    Section 3.2.1 (page unavailable) reports variable phytoplankton responses under OAE conditions, including a 30% decline in primary production, shifts in cell size and diatom selection, and neutral effects. It also reports no significant change in the overall planktonic community under mild alkalinity increases. These passages support the range of responses and community changes, but do not establish the claimed substantial shifts in plankton biomass. (LLM, conf=0.82)

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Authors
McElhany, P., Cape, M., Faucher, G., Frieder, C., Hemery, L. G., Iglesias-Rodriguez, D., Murray, C. S., & Noble, W.
Affiliations
  • NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center (US)
  • Environmental Defense Fund (US)
  • GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
  • Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (US)
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
  • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US)
  • University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
Corresponding author
McElhany, Paul
ORCID
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2026-03-26
DOI
10.5194/egusphere-2026-1597
OpenAlex
W7140558308
Cited by
3
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 3
Type
posted content
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Northwest Fisheries Science Center (na)
  • Ocean Acidification Program (na)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
  • Physical Sciences › Materials Science › Biomaterials › Calcium Carbonate Crystallization and Inhibition
Keywords
marine carbon dioxide removal, carbonate chemistry, biological thresholds, ocean alkalinity, high pH, ocean acidification, marine organisms, physiological responses, threshold estimation, ocean alkalinity enhancement

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