A contrail cirrus prediction model
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Abstract
Abstract. A new model to simulate and predict the properties of a large ensemble of contrails as a function of given air traffic and meteorology is described. The model is designed for approximate prediction of contrail cirrus cover and analysis of contrail climate impact, e.g. within aviation system optimization processes. The model simulates the full contrail life-cycle. Contrail segments form between waypoints of individual aircraft tracks in sufficiently cold and humid air masses. The initial contrail properties depend on the aircraft. The advection and evolution of the contrails is followed with a Lagrangian Gaussian plume model. Mixing and bulk cloud processes are treated quasi analytically or with an effective numerical scheme. Contrails disappear when the bulk ice content is sublimating or precipitating. The model has been implemented in a "Contrail Cirrus Prediction Tool" (CoCiP). This paper describes the model assumptions, the equations for individual contrails, and the analysis-method for contrail-cirrus cover derived from the optical depth of the ensemble of contrails and background cirrus. The model has been applied for a case study and compared to the results of other models and in-situ contrail measurements. The simple model reproduces a considerable part of observed contrail properties. Mid-aged contrails provide the largest contributions to the product of optical depth and contrail width, important for climate impact.
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In major air traffic corridors over the United States and Europe, contrail cirrus may warm the atmospheric column by more than 500 mW m−2 and contribute substantially to regional anthropogenic radiative forcing.
“For example, in major air traf fi c corridors over the United States and Europe, contrail cirrus may warm the atmospheric column by more than 500 mW m -2 , and hence contribute substantially to the regional anthropogenic radiative forcing 12,13 .”
From Cleaner burning aviation fuels can reduce contrail cloudiness (2021) · cites this paper as [13]
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Self-citationCleaner burning aviation fuels can reduce contrail cloudiness
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Self-citationIn-situ observations of young contrails – overview and selected results from the CONCERT campaign
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Self-citationDehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail-climate model
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Self-citationGlobal aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021
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Self-citationAviation effects on already-existing cirrus clouds
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- Authors
- Schumann, U.
- Affiliations
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Schumann, U.
- ORCID
- Schumann, U.
- Venue
- Geoscientific Model Development
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2012-05-03
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 543-580
- ISSN
- 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
- 1991-9603
- OpenAlex
- W2142869058
- Cited by
- 229
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 29 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 10.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- elib (German Aerospace Center) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- contrail cirrus, optical depth, aviation emissions, ice sublimation, precipitation, aircraft flight tracks
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