Cited by 3Psychiatric care and mental health servicesMental Health Treatment and AccessMachine Learning in Healthcare

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Predicting Psychiatric Hospitalizations among Elderly Veterans with a History of Mental Health Disease

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Burningham, Zachary, Leng, Jianwei, Peters, Celena B., Huynh, Tina, Halwani, Ahmad, Rupper, Randall, Hicken, Bret, Sauer, Brian C.·2018·eGEMs (Generating Evidence & Methods to improve patient outcomes)

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) care managers are tasked with identifying aging Veterans with psychiatric disease in attempt to prevent psychiatric crises. However, few resources exist that use real-time information on patient risk to prioritize coordinating appropriate care amongst a complex aging population. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a model to predict psychiatric hospital admission, during a 90-day risk window, in Veterans ages 65 or older with a history of mental health disease. METHODS: This study applied a cohort design to historical data available in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW). The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularization regression technique was used for model development and variable selection. Individual predicted probabilities were estimated using logistic regression. A split-sample approach was used in performing external validation of the fitted model. The concordance statistic (C-statistic) was calculated to assess model performance. RESULTS: Prior to modeling, 61 potential candidate predictors were identified and 27 variables remained after applying the LASSO method. The final model's predictive accuracy is represented by a C-statistic of 0.903. The model's predictive accuracy during external validation is represented by a C-statistic of 0.935. Having a previous psychiatric hospitalization, psychosis, bipolar disorder, and the number of mental-health related social work encounters were strong predictors of a geriatric psychiatric hospitalization. CONCLUSION: This predictive model is capable of quantifying the risk of a geriatric psychiatric hospitalization with acceptable performance and allows for the development of interventions that could potentially reduce such risk.

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Figure 1 The ROC Curve for the Final Fitted Logistic Model.
Figure 1 The ROC Curve for the Final Fitted Logistic Model.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 2 The ROC Curve of the Final Fitted Model during External Validation.
Figure 2 The ROC Curve of the Final Fitted Model during External Validation.CC BY · PubMed Central
Screenshot 1 Provider Summary Data View.
Screenshot 1 Provider Summary Data View.CC BY · PubMed Central
Screenshot 2 Drill-down Patient Summary Data View.
Screenshot 2 Drill-down Patient Summary Data View.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Authors
Burningham, Z., Leng, J., Peters, C. B., Huynh, T., Halwani, A., Rupper, R., Hicken, B., & Sauer, B. C.
Affiliations
  • University of Utah (US)
  • VA Salt Lake City Healthcare System (US)
Corresponding author
Burningham, Zachary
Venue
eGEMs (Generating Evidence & Methods to improve patient outcomes)
Published
2018-05-17
Volume
6
Issue
1
Pages
7
ISSN
2327-9214 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2803719419
Cited by
3
References
22
Citations by year
2023: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2019: 1
FWCI
0.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • eGEMs (Generating Evidence & Methods to improve patient outcomes) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychiatric care and mental health services
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
psychiatric hospitalization, geriatric mental health, older veterans, risk prediction model, Patient Aligned Care Team, psychosis, bipolar disorder, LASSO, external validation

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Predicting Psychiatric Hospitalizations among Elderly Veterans with a History of Mental Health Disease. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.5334/egems.207
The paper
Burningham, Z., Leng, J., Peters, C. B., Huynh, T., Halwani, A., Rupper, R., Hicken, B., & Sauer, B. C. (2018). Predicting Psychiatric Hospitalizations among Elderly Veterans with a History of Mental Health Disease. eGEMs (Generating Evidence & Methods to improve patient outcomes). https://doi.org/10.5334/egems.207