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Cited by 0Biblical Studies and InterpretationArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesAncient Egypt and Archaeology

A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

Open access
Dickin, Alan·2025·Christian Perspectives on Science and Technology
DOI 10.58913/nzya6759
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Abstract

Archaeological evidence records the sacking of the city of Jericho, but radiocarbon dating of this event puts it much earlier than the generally accepted dates for the exodus of the Israelites from Egypt.Since the Bible claims that Jericho was destroyed forty years after the exodus, this discrepancy has led most scholars to question the historicity of the biblical account.Many have concluded that the exodus from Egypt and the Israelite conquest of Canaan were not real events.Surprisingly, radiocarbon dating of the Late Bronze Age is also in question, because at several critical sites such as Akrotiri, Avaris, and Jericho, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than dates from pottery stratigraphy.These discrepancies are a huge problem for both biblical and secular archaeology.On the one hand, there is a lack of evidence to support the historicity of the biblical account; on the other hand, secular archaeologists have failed to explain the Middle Bronze Age "collapse" in Canaan, of which the fall of Jericho was a part.This paper reviews radiocarbon constraints for several important sites, and concludes that the coherence of biblical and archaeological accounts would be greatly improved by adopting an early sixteenth-century date for the biblical exodus.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This review argues that radiocarbon and archaeological evidence fit an early sixteenth-century exodus better than the traditional early (ca. 1446 BC) or late (13th-century) dates, proposing ca. 1575 BC for the exodus and ca. 1535 BC for Jericho’s destruction. It also argues the Middle Bronze Age Canaanite collapse can be attributed to the Israelites rather than an Egyptian invasion.

Key findings

  • Jericho: Bruins and Van Der Plicht’s six carbonised grain samples gave a weighted average of 3306 +/-14 BP (2 sigma), with a maximum-likelihood calibrated age of 1530–1540 BC (1535 +/-5 BC) and a possible range of 1520–1600 BC; charcoal samples averaged around 3370 BP, giving a secure upper limit in the late seventeenth century BC. Based on the 1535 BC destruction date, the paper derives a most likely exodus date of 1575 BC.
  • Thera/exodus link: Bruins and Van Der Plicht’s ca. 1630 BC exodus and ca. 1590 BC Jericho sack are not supported; if the exodus were 1611 BC, the implied 1571 BC sack of Jericho falls outside the confidence limits of the Jericho grain dates, making the 1611 BC exodus relatively unlikely and probably not associated with Thera. Thera’s eruption is best fitted to the 1611 BC ice-core horizon, while olive-branch ages of ca. 1540, 1563, and 1608 BC disagree.
  • Traditional 1446 BC exodus / 1406 BC Jericho destruction is rejected: the proposed 1406 BC date is ca. 130 years younger than the calibrated radiocarbon age for Jericho’s destruction, described as “vanishingly unlikely”; Amenhotep III scarabs indicate occupation into the mid-fourteenth century BC, refuting 1406 BC.
  • Avaris and conquest: the major abandonment of Avaris at the end of horizon D2 is linked to an Israelite exodus around 1575 BC, while radiocarbon data for the top of the Avaris sequence are consistent with Ahmose beginning around 1550 BC. The Middle Bronze Age collapse at Canaanite cities, including Megiddo’s Mid/Late Bronze transition dated to 1536 BC (modified from 1554 BC using IntCal20), is attributed to the Israelites, seventy-five years before Thutmose III’s campaign.

Methods

  • Review and synthesis of published radiocarbon and archaeological data for Mid/Late Bronze Age sites, including Thera/Akrotiri, Avaris/Tell el-Daba, Jericho, Megiddo, and Lachish, alongside ice-core sulphate records and Egyptian historical/scarab evidence.
  • Main analysis compares conventional radiocarbon ages with IntCal 1998, IntCal 2020, and an eastern Mediterranean calibration curve, using visual calibration-curve fitting and wiggle matching; Bayesian modelling is discussed but the author deliberately uses the calibration curve alone for visual assessment.
  • Data include Bruins and Van Der Plicht’s Jericho samples (six carbonised grains and charcoal), Bronk Ramsey’s sixteen charred Thera seeds, Friedrich et al.’s olive branch, Pearson et al.’s olive shrub, Kutschera et al.’s Tell el-Daba sequence, and Megiddo radiocarbon dating.

Limitations

  • The paper states that space does not permit comparison with the book of Judges; Bayesian analysis tends to be a “black box”; Thera olive-branch data suffer from inadequate sampling (two-point sampling is insufficient for wiggle matching, and intermediate samples are needed for branches 72-2 and 88-2); Tell el-Daba data have not been recalibrated for IntCal 2020 or the new Mediterranean curve; and Bietak’s pottery stratigraphy assumes equal durations for excavation levels.
  • Evident from the text: the conclusions depend on contested calibration curves and local offsets, and the author selects among competing radiocarbon interpretations—such as favouring the 1611 BC ice-core date and a 1575 BC exodus—without presenting new primary measurements.
  • Evident from the text: the argument is explicitly framed to harmonize biblical chronology with archaeology, and some historical reconstructions (e.g., Hyksos as oppressors, Israelite conquest of Canaan) rely on contested readings of Manetho/Josephus and biblical texts.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.58913/nzya6759

Cites

0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 42 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingnone given

    Radiocarbon dating of the Late Bronze Age is in question because at several critical sites such as Akrotiri, Avaris, and Jericho, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than dates from pottery stratigraphy.

    “Surprisingly, radiocarbon dating of the Late Bronze Age is also in question, because at several critical sites such as Akrotiri, Avaris, and Jericho, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than dates from pottery stratigraphy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    The age span of the blocks calculated by fitting to the calibration curve, twenty-three years, is less than a third of the seventy-two rings estimated by X-ray analysis of the wood.

    “However, the age span of the blocks calculated in this way (twenty-three years on the x-axis) is less than a third of the seventy-two rings estimated by X-ray analysis of the wood.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    The 1611 BC ice-core event is the only one after 1650 BC with a signature consistent with a Mediterranean subtropical eruption.

    “In fact, the 1611 event is the only one after 1650 BC that has a signature consistent with a Mediterranean (subtropical) eruption, whereas the other eruptions all have Arctic or Southern Hemisphere signatures.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    The four radiocarbon analyses of Friedrich et al.'s olive branch define a good fit to a straight section of the calibration curve, anchoring the youngest wood sample's bark surface to a calendar age of 1608 (+/-10) BC.

    “The four radiocarbon analyses define a good fit to one of the few straight sections of the calibration curve, firmly anchoring the youngest of the wood samples, so that its bark surface (arrow) defines a calendar age of 1608 (+/-10 years) BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [37]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingcitation

    The largest sulphate deposit in the period of interest, at 1628 BC, was caused by the eruption of an Aleutian volcano, Aniakchak, not by Thera.

    “However, analysis of dust from the 1628 BC horizon showed that this signal was actually caused by the eruption of an Aleutian volcano, Aniakchak.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. 50
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 32
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Archaeological evidence records the sacking of the city of Jericho, but radiocarbon dating of this event puts it much earlier than the generally accepted dates for the exodus of the Israelites from Egypt.

    “Archaeological evidence records the sacking of the city of Jericho, but radiocarbon dating of this event puts it much earlier than the generally accepted dates for the exodus of the Israelites from Egypt.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The IntCal 2020 calibration exercise caused substantial increases in the apparent age of the calibration curve in the interval of interest, removing the low wiggly part of the curve between 1650 and 1690 BC.

    “These new samples were used in the 2020 international calibration exercise (IntCal 2020), and were found to cause substantial increases in the apparent age of the calibration curve in the interval of interest (Figure 3).The most dramatic change is the removal of the low wiggly part of the curve between 1650 and 1690 BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The IntCal 2020 calibration greatly reduces the likelihood of calibrated Thera ages over 1650 BC relative to IntCal 1998, and creates a steeper section of the curve between 1640 and 1610 BC.

    “The resulting probability distribution (pale pink shading) greatly reduces the likelihood of calibrated Thera ages over 1650 BC, relative to IntCal 1998.The new calibration also creates a steeper section of the curve between 1640 and 1610 BC”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Although there is no evidence for a destruction layer at this horizon, there is a clear cultural break between well-dated sequences at Megiddo.

    “Although there is no evidence for a destruction layer at this horizon, there is a clear cultural break between well-dated sequences.102”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [102]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The charcoal samples from Jericho yield a consensus of conventional ages around 3370 BP, giving the age of the Jericho conflagration a secure upper limit in the late seventeenth century BC.

    “As such (and omitting the early outlier) the charcoal samples from Jericho are important in yielding a consensus of conventional ages around 3370 BP.Based on its intersection with a steep section of the new Mediterranean calibration curve (Figure 4), this gives the age of the Jericho conflagration a secure upper limit in the late seventeenth century BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [65]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Based on the shape of the calibration curve, the calibrated age for the unit below the abandonment horizon is securely within the seventeenth century (ca.1650 BC), whereas the most probable date for units above the abandonment is 1540 BC, consistent with the radiocarbon corroborated reign of Ahmose beginning around 1550 BC.

    “Based on the shape of the calibration curve, we can see that the calibrated age for the unit below the abandonment horizon is securely within the seventeenth century (ca.1650 BC), whereas the most probable date for units above the abandonment is 1540 BC, consistent with the radiocarbon corroborated reign of the first king of the eighteenth dynasty (Ahmose), beginning around 1550 BC. 80”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [80]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Canaanite cities record a 'collapse' at the end of the Middle Bronze age (ca 1550 BC).

    “In contrast to limited evidence for an Israelite conquest at these later dates, Canaanite cities record a”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Middle Bronze Age Jericho was surrounded by a large stone revetment, on top of which a mud brick wall had been erected; this wall suffered a catastrophic collapse, presumably due to a major earthquake.

    “These expeditions showed that Middle Bronze Age Jericho was surrounded by a large stone revetment, on top of which a mud brick wall had been erected.This mud brick wall had evidently suffered a catastrophic collapse, presumably due to a major earthquake event.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The average conventional age for the unit below the abandonment horizon (D2) is 3399 ±37 years BP, whereas the average for the units above the abandonment (C2/3 and D1) is 3313 ±25 years.

    “The average conventional age for the unit below the abandonment (D2) is 3399 +/-37 years BP, whereas the average for the units above the abandonment (C2/3 and D1) is 3313 +/-25 years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The wood age is 85 years older than the grain age for the destruction layer, a difference within the range of excess ages normally obtained from construction timbers.

    “This is 85 years older than the age of the destruction layer obtained from the grains, a difference within the range of excess ages normally obtained from construction timbers.68”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [68]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingcitation

    The conventional radiocarbon age of 3306 years BP for the Jericho destruction layer is slightly below the long plateau in the calibration curve, yielding a maximum likelihood calibrated age of 1535 ±5 BC (range 1530-1540 BC).

    “The conventional age of 3306 years BP is slightly below the long plateau in the calibration curve, yielding a maximum likelihood of cali- 65 Bruins and Van Der Plicht,”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [65]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

    Recent improvements in the radiocarbon calibration curve during the Mid/Late Bronze Age should dispel uncertainties about radiocarbon dating in this period.

    “However, recent improvements in the radiocarbon calibration curve during this period should dispel these uncertainties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

    Many scholars doubt that the exodus occurred in the form described in the Bible, and even those who believe it happened disagree about its timing.

    “These difficulties have now become so great that many scholars doubt that the exodus occurred in the form described in the Bible, and even those who believe it happened disagree about its timing.6”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The effect of the regional calibration is to reduce further the likelihood of calibrated age-peaks above 1650 BC and correspondingly to increase the likelihood of calibrated ages below 1600 BC.

    “We do not need to reprocess the data completely in order to see the expected result of this change on the Thera data discussed above: the effect is to reduce further the likelihood of calibrated age-peaks above 1650 BC, and correspondingly to increase the likelihood of calibrated ages below 1600 BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In the Mid/Late Bronze Age, other dating methods such as king lists appear sufficiently precise to challenge radiocarbon dating, but not sufficiently accurate to allow dating certainty.

    “The first is that within this period, other dating methods (such as those based on king lists) appear sufficiently precise to challenge radiocarbon dating, but not sufficiently accurate to allow dating certainty (as we might claim for many dates AD).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

    Amongst those who believe in a real historical exodus there are two main scholarly camps, arguing for either an early or a late exodus.

    “Amongst those who believe in a real historical exodus there are two main scholarly camps, arguing for either an early or a late exodus.7”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    There is a lack of evidence to support the historicity of the biblical account.

    “On the one hand, there is a lack of evidence to support the historicity of the biblical account;”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

    Bruins and Van Der Plicht argued that the Thera eruption dates the exodus to around 1630 BC, so that after forty years the Israelites would have sacked Jericho around 1590 BC.

    “Bruins and Van Der Plicht argued that this event dates the exodus to around 1630 BC, so that after a forty-year period in the wilderness the Israelites would have sacked Jericho around 1590 BC.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical exodus and conquest are historical events that can be dated by archaeological and radiocarbon evidence.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § A Reassessment of Scientific Evidence for the Exodus and Conquest

    Bruins and Van Der Plicht argued that the Israelite exodus actually occurred around 150 years before the so-called early date and coincided with the eruption of Thera volcano.

    “Bruins and Van Der Plicht argued that the Israelite exodus actually occurred around 150 years before the so-called early date discussed above, and coincided with the eruption of Thera volcano (Santorini).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical exodus and conquest are historical events that can be dated by archaeological and radiocarbon evidence.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Thutmose III is credited in contemporary inscriptions with several successful invasions of Canaan, while his son Amenhotep II was also fairly successful, with two campaigns in Syria mentioned on stelae at Amada, Memphis, and Karnak.

    “Thutmose is credited in contemporary inscriptions with several successful invasions of Canaan, while his son Amenhotep II was also fairly successful, with two campaigns in Syria mentioned on stelae at Amada, Memphis, and Karnak.91”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [91]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    Bietak's pottery dating stratigraphy makes the unproven assumption that most of the Tell el-Daba excavation levels in Figure 9 had the same thirty-year duration.

    “In turn, Bietak's pottery dating stratigraphy makes the unproven assumption that most of the Tell el-Daba excavation levels in Figure 9 had the same thirty-year duration.75”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [75]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Josephus quotes Manetho as saying that the Egyptian dynasty of Thebes under king Alisphragmuthosis rose up against the Hyksos and confined them to Avaris, after which his son Thummosis laid siege to Avaris.

    “Regarding the end of the Hyksos rule, Josephus quotes Manetho as saying that the Egyptian dynasty of Thebes under king Alisphragmuthosis rose up against the Hyksos and confined them to Avaris, after which his son Thummosis laid siege to Avaris (Thummosis is evidently Thutmose-probably Thutmose I).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Manetho supposedly said that 240,000 of the Hyksos left Egypt, and went via the wilderness to Judea, but stopped there because of fear of the Assyrians.

    “Manetho supposedly said that 240,000 of the Hyksos left Egypt, and went via the wilderness to Judea, but stopped there because of fear of the Assyrians.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Based on the biblically stated forty-year interval between the exodus and the sack of Jericho, the wider calibrated age range (1520-1600 BC) is consistent with an exodus in 1611 BC.

    “Based on the biblically stated interval of forty years between the exodus and the sack of Jericho, this wider age range would be consistent with an exodus in 1611 BC.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical interval of forty years between the exodus and the sack of Jericho is historically accurate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    These constraints are usually much weaker at the ends of the sequence, resulting in larger calibration uncertainties.

    “These constraints are usually much weaker at the ends of the sequence, resulting in larger calibration uncertainties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Several scholars, beginning with William Shea and more recently followed by James Hoffmeier and Felix Hoflmayer, have argued that the 'archaeological model' for the Middle Bronze Age collapse is seriously flawed.

    “However, several scholars, beginning with William Shea and more recently followed by James Hoffmeier and Felix Hoflmayer, have argued that the”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [96]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Thummosis was apparently unable to take the city, but negotiated a settlement whereby the Hyksos would leave Egypt and go back to Syria.

    “He was apparently unable to take the city, but supposedly negotiated a settlement whereby the Hyksos would leave Egypt and go back to Syria.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Josephus identifies a date for the exodus near the beginning of the New Kingdom (eighteenth dynasty), but he also suggests that Manetho's account seems contradictory and to some extent fictitious.

    “In this work, Josephus identifies a date for the exodus near the beginning of the New Kingdom (in the eighteenth dynasty), but he also suggests that Manetho's account seems to be contradictory and to some extent fictitious.83”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [83]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Hatshepsut scarabs do not provide a minimum age for the occupation of Jericho, but a maximum age.

    “Therefore, these artefacts do not provide a minimum age for the occupation of the site, but a maximum age (given that time must pass between the veneration of the scarab and the death and interment of its owner).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [64]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Egyptians were mainly interested in the coastal plain, which could control trade from the north and supply tribute.

    “The Egyptians were mainly interested in the coastal plain, which could control trade from the north and supply tribute.100”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [100]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The original name of the city of Rameses was Avaris, which lies immediately adjacent to the later city.

    “The original name of the city of Rameses was Avaris, which lies immediately adjacent to the later city.71”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [71]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Karnak inscription of Thutmose III, which describes the battle of Megiddo, places it in the twenty-third year of his reign, and therefore sometime around 1460 BC.

    “For example, the Karnak inscription of Thutmose III, which describes the battle of Megiddo, places it in the twenty-third year of his reign, and therefore sometime around 1460 BC. 97”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [97]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The radiocarbon data for the top of the Avaris sequence are consistent with the established Egyptian dynastic chronology, but the levels immediately below may be compressed date-wise, contrary to Bietak's assumption of equal durations for each excavation level.

    “In other words, the radiocarbon data for the top of the Avaris sequence are consistent with the established Egyptian dynastic chronology, but the levels immediately below may be compressed date-wise, contrary to Bietak's assumption of equal durations for each excavation level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Pottery evidence is equivocal because it is based on gradual changes in style, which cannot necessarily be dated with a precision of less than a hundred years.

    “The pottery evidence is equivocal because it is based on gradual changes in style, which cannot necessarily be dated with a precision of less than a hundred years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [52]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The thirteenth and fifteenth century dates for the exodus are in conflict with archaeological evidence from several other Canaanite cities, apart from the failure to explain the radiocarbon dates from Jericho.

    “This is because (apart from the failure to explain the radiocarbon dates from Jericho), the thirteenth and fifteenth century dates for the exodus are in conflict with archaeological evidence from several other Canaanite cities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The idea that the Hyksos cannot have oppressed the Israelites because they were both 'Asiatics' is completely refuted by the Bible's universal anathema against the Canaanites.

    “However, this idea is completely refuted by the Bible's universal anathema against the Canaanites.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The Hyksos were Canaanites.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    According to the biblical account, the pharaoh of the Exodus or his immediate successor are required to be weak kings whose power had been decimated.

    “According to this account, the pharaoh of the Exodus or his immediate successor are required to be weak kings whose power had been decimated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical account of the pharaoh and his army being drowned in the Sea of Reeds is historically accurate.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given

    There is no claim in Joshua that the Israelites settled these cities.

    “However, there is no claim that the Israelites settled these cities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    There is good evidence that Semitic immigration to Avaris began in the twelfth dynasty (late Middle Kingdom), since Semitic burial practices and house architecture are already seen in the oldest (twelfth dynasty) parts of the city.

    “However, there is good evidence that Semitic immigration to Avaris began in the twelfth dynasty (late Middle Kingdom), since Semitic burial practices and house architecture are already seen in the oldest (twelfth dynasty) parts of the city.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If the exodus occurred around 1575 BC but the Israelites were building a city named after a pharaoh who reigned over 300 years later, this would be an anachronism.

    “If the exodus occurred around 1575 BC but the Israelites were building a city named after a pharaoh who reigned over 300 years later, this would clearly be an anachronism.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical account that Israelite slaves built the Egyptian store cities of Pithom and Rameses is historically accurate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Manetho is quoted as saying that the Hyksos had possessions in Egypt for 511 years, which implies that they were living in Egypt before they became its rulers.

    “However, Manetho is quoted as saying that the Hyksos had possessions in Egypt for 511 years, which implies that they were living in Egypt before they became its rulers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The 1611 BC date for the exodus is relatively unlikely, and the exodus was therefore probably not associated with the Thera eruption.

    “This means that the 1611 date for the exodus is relatively unlikely, and the exodus was therefore probably not associated with the Thera eruption.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    This account seems to be based on conflating the Hyksos with the Hebrews, borne out by Josephus quoting Manetho as saying 'in another book' that the Hyksos were called Captive Shepherds because they tended sheep, and because their ancestor Joseph had been a captive in Egypt.

    “This account seems to be based on conflating the Hyksos with the Hebrews, and this is borne out when Josephus quotes Manetho as saying”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    This collapse has traditionally been attributed to an invasion by the Egyptians, following their defeat of the Hyksos.

    “However, this collapse has traditionally been attributed to an invasion by the Egyptians, following their defeat of the Hyksos.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    This procedure acts to exclude the extreme age outliers that are otherwise generated as possible solutions to the calibration process.

    “This procedure acts to exclude the extreme age outliers that are otherwise generated as possible solutions to the calibration process.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Although these time periods appear inflated, the overall concept that the Hyksos lived in Egypt for a period during the SIP before they established their own fifteenth dynasty seems reasonable.

    “Although these time periods appear inflated, the overall concept that the Hyksos lived in Egypt for a period of time during the SIP before they established their own (fifteenth) dynasty seems reasonable.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Radiocarbon dating of the transition horizon at Lachish is not yet complete, but it seems likely that a mid/late sixteenth century date will be obtained.

    “Here, radiocarbon dating of the transition horizon is not yet complete, but it seems likely that a mid/late sixteenth century date will be obtained.104”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [104]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    An early sixteenth-century exodus satisfies many lines of evidence, including radiocarbon, archaeological, and historical data, and explains the mystery of the Middle Bronze Age collapse at several Canaanite cities.

    “In contrast, an early sixteenth-century exodus satisfies many lines of evidence, including radiocarbon, archaeological, and historical data, and explains the mystery of the Middle Bronze Age collapse at several Canaanite cities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The outliers in the Jericho grain samples are within two sigma confidence limits of the mean, suggesting a normal error distribution, so they should be included in the average.

    “However, the outliers are within two sigma confidence limits of the mean, suggesting a normal error distribution, so they should be included in the average.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The description of Canaan as the 'land of milk and honey' literally refers to the wild steppe, which is pastureland (not arable), and whose wildness is indicated by the availability of honey, which is mainly harvested from scrubland and open woodland.

    “Literally, this description refers to the wild steppe, which is pastureland (not arable), and whose wildness is indicated by the availability of honey, which is mainly harvested from scrubland and open woodland.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Egyptian sources attribute the conquest of Canaan to Thutmose III, in the mid-fifteenth century, which is several decades later.

    “Instead, Egyptian sources attribute the conquest of Canaan to Thutmose III, in the mid-fifteenth century, which is several decades later.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    A significant number of grain samples (six) were analysed, and the consistency of their data provided internal evidence of their reliability.

    “Firstly, a significant number of grain samples (six) were analysed, and the consistency of their data provided internal evidence of their reliability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Ancient Avaris (modern Tell el-Daba) was a large city on the eastern tributary of the Nile delta, and the capital of Egypt during the Semitic 'Hyksos' dynasty in the Second Intermediate Period.

    “It was a large city on the eastern tributary of the Nile delta, and the capital of Egypt during the Semitic”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Josephus quotes Manetho as saying that Egypt was earlier conquered without a battle by eastern peoples, whom we would call Semitic, and he names them as the Hyksos.

    “Josephus quotes Manetho as saying that Egypt was earlier conquered without a battle by eastern peoples, whom we would call Semitic.He names them as the Hyksos, which he translates as Shepherd Kings or Captive Shepherds.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The consistency of the grain data excludes the type of occasional low ages measured by other researchers, which are most likely due to contamination of the context and/or the samples themselves.

    “For example, this consistency excludes the type of occasional low ages measured by other researchers, which are most likely due to contamination of the context and/or the samples themselves.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The theory that the Middle Bronze Age collapse was caused by the Egyptians was espoused by both William Albright and Kathleen Kenyon.

    “The theory that the Middle Bronze Age collapse was caused by the Egyptians was espoused by both William Albright and Kathleen Kenyon.94”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [94]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Archaeological evidence suggests that Rameses II and his son Merneptah gained complete control over the coastal plain of Canaan, establishing it as a virtual 'Egyptian highway'.

    “Archaeological evidence suggests that Rameses II and his son Merneptah gained complete control over the coastal plain of Canaan, establishing it as a virtual”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [92]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Manetho, cited by Josephus, accuses the Hyksos of being extremely cruel rulers, and enslaving the population.

    “Manetho, cited by Josephus, actually accuses the Hyksos of being extremely cruel rulers, and enslaving the population.89”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [89]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    The popular mid-thirteenth century date for the Exodus is based in major part on the link between the Israelites and the city of Rameses.

    “The link with Rameses is one of the major reasons for the popular mid-thirteenth century date for the Exodus (placing the exodus during or after the reign of Rameses II).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Bayesian modelling is only as good as the 'priors' (dating constraints) used.

    “However, Bayesian modelling is only as good as the”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Amenhotep III scarabs from Garstang's Tomb 4 refute the destruction of Jericho by the Israelites in 1406 BC, by showing that Jericho was occupied fifty years later, around the mid-fourteenth century BC.

    “Hence, far from providing support for the destruction of Jericho by the Israelites in 1406 BC, the Amenhotep III scarabs actually refute this date, by showing that Jericho was occupied fifty years later, around the mid-fourteenth century BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Royal scarabs bearing the name of a specific pharaoh can be identified with that pharaoh and provide a maximum age for a burial, corresponding to the beginning of that pharaoh's reign.

    “Specifically, since pharaonic reigns of the New Kingdom can be dated to within about ten years, they provide a maximum age for a burial, corresponding to the beginning of that pharaoh's reign.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Since pottery and scarab evidence cannot reliably date the destruction of Jericho, radiocarbon evidence is used instead.

    “Therefore, since pottery and scarab evidence cannot reliably date the destruction of Jericho, we turn to radiocarbon evidence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    According to the theory of Bruins and Van Der Plicht, the Israelite exodus from Egypt was in 1611, and the sack of Jericho was forty years later, around 1570.

    “According to the theory of Bruins and Van Der Plicht, this means that the Israelite exodus from Egypt was in 1611, and therefore the sack of Jericho was forty years later, around 1570.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: The biblical exodus and conquest are historical events that can be dated by archaeological and radiocarbon evidence.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The book of Joshua claims the conquest of many Canaanite cities and their kings (Joshua 12).

    “The book of Joshua does indeed claim the conquest of many Canaanite cities and their kings (Joshua 12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The Turin Canon is damaged in the section that describes the Hyksos dynasty; only one king, Khamudi, is clearly named, and another five entries seem to have been lost.

    “Unfortunately, the Turin Canon is damaged in the section that describes the Hyksos dynasty.Only one king, Khamudi, is clearly named, and another five entries seem to have been lost.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    If the Canaanite Hyksos attempted genocide against the Israelites in Egypt, the subsequent annihilation of Canaanite cities by the Israelites makes much more sense.

    “In fact, if the Canaanite Hyksos attempted genocide against the Israelites in Egypt (Exodus 1:16, 22), the subsequent annihilation of Canaanite cities by the Israelites makes much more sense.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The Hyksos were Canaanites.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These rulers apparently established a dynasty of six kings who ruled from Avaris in the Nile Delta, reputedly for a total of 254 years.

    “These rulers apparently established a dynasty of six kings who ruled from Avaris in the Nile Delta, reputedly for a total of 254 years.84”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [84]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

68 of 68

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical exodus and conquest are historical events that can be dated by archaeological and radiocarbon evidence.

    “This paper reviews radiocarbon constraints for several important sites, and concludes that the coherence of biblical and archaeological accounts would be greatly improved by adopting an early sixteenth-century date for the biblical exodus.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical interval of forty years between the exodus and the sack of Jericho is historically accurate.

    “Based on the biblically stated interval of forty years between the exodus and the sack of Jericho, this wider age range would be consistent with an exodus in 1611 BC.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical account that Israelite slaves built the Egyptian store cities of Pithom and Rameses is historically accurate.

    “In the Bible, it is claimed that the Israelite slaves built the Egyptian store cities of Pithom and Rameses (Exodus 1:11).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical account of the pharaoh and his army being drowned in the Sea of Reeds is historically accurate.

    “The biblical account of pharaoh's army and possibly the pharaoh himself being drowned in the Sea of Reeds also provides evidence relevant to dating the exodus.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical account of an Israelite conquest of Canaan is historically accurate.

    “However, an early sixteenth-century exodus solves this problem by attributing the Canaanite”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Hyksos were Canaanites.

    “In fact, if the Canaanite Hyksos attempted genocide against the Israelites in Egypt (Exodus 1:16, 22), the subsequent annihilation of Canaanite cities by the Israelites makes much more sense.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The biblical plagues that preceded the exodus occurred.

    “However, the effect of Thera in causing the plagues that preceded the exodus can more definitely be excluded.”
7 of 7

Cites

The publisher hasn’t deposited this paper’s reference list.

Research works printed but not linked: 17

  1. Flavius Josephus, Antiquities of the Jews 7.3.2, in The Works of Josephus, trans. William Whiston (Peabody, MA: Hendrickson Publishers, 1987).
  2. Vronwy Hankey and Peter Warren, "The Absolute Chronology of the Aegean Late Bronze Age," Bulletin of the Institute of Classical Studies 21 (1974): 142-152.
  3. Carl Watzinger, "Zur Chronologie der Schichten von Jericho," Zeitschrift der Deutschen Morgenländischen Gesellschaft 80:2/3 (1926): 131-136;
  4. Gary A. Byers et al., "Excavations at Khirbet el-Maqatir: The 2009-2011 Seasons," Judea and Samaria Research Studies 25:2 (2016): 69.
  5. Regine Schulz, "Seals and Scarabs," in The Oxford Handbook of Egyptology, ed.
  6. John Garstang, "Jericho, City and Necropolis," Palestine Exploration Quarterly 64:3 (1932): 149-153.
  7. John Garstang and J. B. E. Garstang, The Story of Jericho, revised edition (London: Marshal & Morgan, 1948), 125.
  8. Felix I. Höflmayer et al., "An Early Date for Khyan and Its Implications for Eastern Mediterranean Chronologies," in The Hyksos Ruler Khyan and the Early Second Intermediate Period in Egypt: Proceedings of the Workshop of the Austrian Archaeological Institute and the Oriental Institute of the University of Chicago, Vienna, ed. Irene Forstner-Müller and Nadine Moeller (Vienna: Österreichisches Archäologisches Institut, 2014), 159.
  9. Flavius Josephus, Against Apion 1.14, trans. William Whiston (Project Gutenberg EBook). 83 Josephus, Against Apion 1.26. 84 Josephus, Against Apion 1.14.
  10. John Rea, "The Time of the Oppression and the Exodus," Bulletin of the Evangelical Theological Society 3:3 (1960): 58-66. 89 Josephus, Against Apion 1.14.
  11. William F. Albright, The Archaeology of Palestine (London: Penguin Books, 1960);
  12. Kathleen M. Kenyon and Iorwerth ES Edwards, "Palestine in the Middle Bronze Age," in The Cambridge Ancient History, 2:1: History of the Middle East and the Aegean region c. 1800-1380
  13. B.C., ed. I. E. S. Edwards et al. (Cambridge University Press, 1973), 77-116.
  14. William H. Shea, "The Conquests of Sharuḥen and Megiddo Reconsidered," Israel Exploration Journal (1979): 1-5;
  15. Felix Höflmayer, "The Expulsion of the Hyksos and the End of the Middle Bronze Age: A Reassessment in Light of Recent Chronological Research," Journal of Ancient Egyptian Interconnections 21 (2019): 20-30.
  16. James B. Pritchard, trans. John A. Wilson (Princeton University Press, 1958).
  17. Barbara J. Sivertsen, The Parting of the Sea: How Volcanoes, Earthquakes, and Plagues Shaped the Story of Exodus (Princeton University Press, 2009), 112. 100 Nadav Na'aman, "Economic Aspects of the Egyptian Occupation of Canaan," Israel Exploration Journal 31:3/4 (1981): 172-185. 101

Related

Authors
Dickin, A.
Affiliations
McMaster University (CA)
Corresponding author
Dickin, Alan
ORCID
Dickin, Alan
Venue
Christian Perspectives on Science and Technology
Publisher
Institute for the Study of Christianity in an Age of Science and Technology
Published
2024
Volume
3
Pages
136-173
ISSN
  • 2653-648X (ISSN-L)
  • 2653-7656
DOI
10.58913/nzya6759
OpenAlex
W4401343076
Cited by
0
References
0
FWCI
0.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Christian Perspectives on Science and Technology (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Religious studies › Biblical Studies and Interpretation
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Egypt and Archaeology
Keywords
Exodus, conquest of Canaan, Jericho, radiocarbon dating, Late Bronze Age, Akrotiri, Avaris, biblical archaeology

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