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Cited by 76Smoking Behavior and CessationGlobal Public Health Policies and EpidemiologyHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life

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Burden of smoking in Brazil and potential benefit of increasing taxes on cigarettes for the economy and for reducing morbidity and mortality

Open access
Pinto, Marcia, Bardach, Ariel, Palacios, Alfredo, Biz, Aline, Alcaraz, Andrea, Belen Rodriguez, Augustovski, Federico, Pichon-Riviere, Andres·2019·SciELO journals
DOI 10.6084/m9.figshare.9739616
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Abstract

The prevalence of smoking in Brazil has decreased considerably in recent decades, but the country still has a high burden of disease associated with this risk factor. The study aimed to estimate the burden of mortality, morbidity, and costs for society associated with smoking in 2015 and the potential impact on health outcomes and the economy based on price increases for cigarettes through taxes. Two models were developed: the first is a mathematical model based on a probabilistic microsimulation of thousands of individuals using hypothetical cohorts that considered the natural history, costs, and quality of life of these individuals. The second is a tax model applied to estimate the economic benefit and health outcomes in different price increase scenarios in 10 years. Smoking was responsible for 156,337 deaths, 4.2 million years of potential life lost, 229,071 acute myocardial infarctions, 59,509 strokes, and 77,500 cancer diagnoses. The total cost was BRL 56.9 billion (USD 14.7 billion), with 70% corresponding to the direct cost associated with healthcare and the rest to indirect cost due to lost productivity from premature death and disability. A 50% increase in cigarette prices would avoid 136,482 deaths, 507,451 cases of cardiovascular diseases, 64,382 cases of cancer, and 100,365 cases of stroke. The estimated economic benefit would be BRL 97.9 billion (USD 25.5 billion). In conclusion, the burden of disease and economic losses associated with smoking is high in Brazil, and tax increases are capable of averting deaths, illness, and costs to society.

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Metadata

Authors
Pinto, M., Bardach, A., Palacios, A., Biz, A., Alcaraz, A., Rodriguez, B., Augustovski, F., & Pichon-Riviere, A.
ORCID
Venue
SciELO journals
Publisher
SciELO journals
Published
2019
DOI
10.6084/m9.figshare.9739616
OpenAlex
W4394194186
Cited by
20
References
0
Citations by year
2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 2
FWCI
1.89
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
Locations
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (cc-by)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
Keywords
smoking, cigarette taxes, tobacco control, disease burden, mortality, morbidity, economic burden, cardiovascular disease, cancer, stroke, acute myocardial infarction, health care costs, productivity loss, Brazil

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