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Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
Open accessAbstract
The checkered history of predicting the future — e.g., “Man will never fly” — has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.
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Cites
Breiman, L. (1996) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/bf00058655 · Cited by 16,325
“Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.”
Ellsberg, D. (1961) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/1884324 · Cited by 7,891
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Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change
Kasprzyk, J. R., Nataraj, S., Reed, P. M., & Lempert, R. J. (2013) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.12.007 · Cited by 508
Self-citationFormalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling
DeCarolis, J., Daly, H., Dodds, P., Keppo, I., Li, F., McDowall, W., Pye, S., Strachan, N., Trutnevyte, E., Usher, W., et al. (2017) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.001 · Cited by 389
Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., & Walker, W. E. (2016) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 · Cited by 261
Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. J., & Bryan, B. A. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 · Cited by 130
Metadata
- Authors
- Lempert, R., Popper, S., & Bankes, S.
- Venue
- RAND Corporation eBooks
- Publisher
- RAND Corporation
- Published
- 2003
- OpenAlex
- W607674676
- Cited by
- 1,244
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 10.01
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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