Tetlock, Philip E.

The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals.

Tetlock, P. E., Kristel, O. V., Elson, S. B., Green, M. C., & Lerner, J. S. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsSocial and Intergroup Psychology

Cited by 1,400

Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?

Tetlock, P. E. (2006) · Choice Reviews Online

Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Cited by 1,260

The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward A Social Contingency Model

Tetlock, P. E. (1992) · Advances in Experimental Social Psychology

Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsSocial and Intergroup Psychology

Cited by 926

AI and the transformation of social science research

Grossmann, I., Feinberg, M., Parker, D. C., Christakis, N. A., Tetlock, P. E., & Cunningham, W. A. (2023) · Science

Ethics and Social Impacts of AIComputational and Text Analysis Methods

Cited by 377

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S. A., et al. (2014) · Psychological Science

Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Cited by 312

Allocating scarce resources: A contingency model of distributive justice

Skitka, L. J., & Tetlock, P. E. (1992) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Social and Intergroup PsychologyExperimental Behavioral Economics Studies

Cited by 265

Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme

Baron, J., Mellers, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., Stone, E., & Ungar, L. H. (2014) · Decision Analysis

Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsSports Analytics and Performance

Cited by 130

“Improving Intelligence Analysis with Decision Science.”

Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., Mellers, B. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015) · Perspectives on Psychological Science

Intelligence, Security, War StrategyDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Cited by 104

Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

Chang, W., Chen, E., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. (2016) · Judgment and Decision Making

Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsForecasting Techniques and Applications

Cited by 89

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Minster, A., Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Tetlock, P., Yang, H. H. J., & Tenney, E. R. (2017) · Management Science

Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Cited by 74

The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Friedman, J. A., Baker, J. D., Mellers, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., & Zeckhauser, R. (2018) · International Studies Quarterly

Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsIntelligence, Security, War Strategy

Cited by 58

SECOND THOUGHTS ABOUT EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT:REPLY TO THE SYMPOSIUM

Tetlock, P. E. (2010) · Critical Review

Epistemology, Ethics, and MetaphysicsDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Cited by 12