The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions
Abstract
The impact of the circulation shift under climate warming on the distribution of precipitation extremes and the associated sensitivity to model resolution are investigated using Community Atmosphere Model Version 3.0 in an aquaplanet configuration. The response of the probability density function of the precipitation to a uniform sea surface temperature warming can be interpreted as superimposition of a dynamically induced poleward shift and a thermodynamically induced upward shift toward higher intensities, which give rise to manyfold increase in the frequency of the most extreme categories of the precipitation events at the poleward side of the midlatitude storm track. Coarser resolutions underestimate not only the intensity of the precipitation extremes but also the dynamical contribution to the increase of precipitation extremes. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic contribution to the intensification of the precipitation extremes is substantially less than expected from the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation, implicative of significant change in the vertical structure of the precipitation processes.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A stronger dynamical contribution resembling a poleward shift has been found in idealized aquaplanet simulations.
“A stronger dynamical contribution resembling a poleward shift has been found in idealized aquaplanet simulations [51, 62].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [51]
Cites
Solomon, S. (2007) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 4,156 · see citing works
The Changing Character of Precipitation
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., & Parsons, D. B. (2003) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-84-9-1205 · Cited by 3,196 · see citing works
Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)
Collins, W. D., Rasch, P., Boville, A. E., McCaa, J. R., Williamson, L., Kiehl, J., Briegleb, B. P., Bitz, C. M., Lin, S., Zhang, M., et al. (2004) · doi:10.5065/d63n21ch · Cited by 2,209 · see citing works
Self-citationExpansion of the Hadley cell under global warming
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A., & Reichler, T. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl028443 · Cited by 1,219 · see citing works
Self-citationO’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0907610106 · Cited by 1,159 · see citing works
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
Kharin, V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Wehner, M. F. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 · Cited by 1,084 · see citing works
Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
Emori, S., & Brown, S. J. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl023272 · Cited by 663 · see citing works
Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations
Lorenz, D. J., & DeWeaver, E. T. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd008087 · Cited by 455 · see citing works
A standard test for AGCMs including their physical parametrizations: I: the proposal
Neale, R., & Hoskins, B. J. (2000) · Atmospheric Science Letters · doi:10.1006/asle.2000.0022 · Cited by 338 · see citing works
Scaling of Precipitation Extremes over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM
O’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2701.1 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
A fundamental probability distribution for heavy rainfall
Wilson, P. S., & Toumi, R. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl022465 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models
Sugiyama, M., Shiogama, H., & Emori, S. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0903186107 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Toreti, A., Naveau, P., Zampieri, M., Schindler, A., Scoccimarro, E., Xoplaki, E., Dijkstra, H. A., Gualdi, S., & Luterbacher, J. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50940 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
The Zonally Averaged Circulation of the Middle Atmosphere
Schoeberl, M. R., & Strobel, D. F. (1978) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Model projected changes of extreme wind events in response to global warming
Gastineau, G., & Soden, B. J. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl037500 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Li, F., Collins, W. D., Wehner, M. F., Williamson, D. L., Olson, J. G., & Algieri, C. A. (2011) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00544.x · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Response of the Extratropical Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Lorenz, D. J., & DeWeaver, E. T. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4192.1 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Chen, G., Ming, Y., Singer, N. D., et al. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl046435 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationLi, F., Collins, W. D., Wehner, M. F., Williamson, D. L., & Olson, J. G. (2011) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00543.x · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationModeling evidence that ozone depletion has impacted extreme precipitation in the austral summer
Kang, S. M., Polvani, L. M., Fyfe, J. C., Son, S., Sigmond, M., & Correa, G. J. P. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50769 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
O’Gorman, P. A. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3 · Cited by 831 · see citing works
“A stronger dynamical contribution resembling a poleward shift has been found in idealized aquaplanet simulations [62,51].”
Background
- Authors
- Lu, J., Ruby Leung, L., Yang, Q., Chen, G., Collins, W. D., Li, F., Jason Hou, Z., & Feng, X.
- Affiliations
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland Washington USA
- Cornell University (US)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- George Mason University (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-04-17
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2971-2978
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1484972652
- Cited by
- 33
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 5 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 2
- FWCI
- 3.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
- NSF (ATM-1064079)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, thermodynamic contribution, poleward shift, model resolution sensitivity, aquaplanet, midlatitude storm tracks, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, sea surface temperature warming, Community Atmosphere Model
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
