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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall: FUTURE INTENSITY OF SUB-DAILY RAINFALL
Open accessAbstract
Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and describes our current physical understanding of the association between subdaily extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature. We also examine the nature, quality, and quantity of information needed to allow society to adapt successfully to predicted future changes, and discuss the roles of observational and modeling studies in helping us to better understand the physical processes that can influence subdaily extreme rainfall characteristics. We conclude by describing the types of research required to produce a more thorough understanding of the relationships between local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and subdaily extreme rainfall intensity.
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“Long-term observational records of subdaily precipitation are relatively sparse, which makes it difficult to give a general assessment of trends in subdaily extremes [92].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [92]
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., & Roberts, N. M.
- Affiliations
- The University of Adelaide (AU)
- Newcastle University (GB)
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE)
- Met Office (GB)
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Westra, S.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Reviews of Geophysics
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-08-27
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 522-555
- ISSN
- 0096-1043 (ISSN-L)
- 8755-1209
- OpenAlex
- W1590065089
- Cited by
- 1,533
- References
- 247
- Citations by year
- 2026: 170 · 2025: 184 · 2024: 193 · 2023: 165 · 2022: 160 · 2021: 174 · 2020: 140 · 2019: 96 · 2018: 89 · 2017: 82 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 44.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Reviews of Geophysics (publishedVersion)
- UNSWorks (UNSW Sydney) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council (DP120100338, CE110001028, FT110100576)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Keywords
- rainfall intensity, flash floods, climate change, anthropogenic climate change, air temperature, large-scale circulation, thermodynamic effects, climate change adaptation, heavy rainfall
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