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Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity
Open accessAbstract
Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely used P − E (precipitation − evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5‐based assessment that projected changes in mean annual P − E are generally not significant, except for high‐latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical and also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that approximately 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Based on these findings, we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas.
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Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11575 · Cited by 1,978
Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.
Durack, P. J., Wijffels, S. E., & Matear, R. J. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1212222 · Cited by 1,070
Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension
Orlowsky, B., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9 · Cited by 549
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Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., et al. (2017) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001 · Cited by 1,521
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Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change
Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., et al. (2020) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.14337 · Cited by 687
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Metadata
- Authors
- Greve, P., & Seneviratne, S. I.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-07-04
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 5493-5499
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1942855934
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 13.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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