Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abstract
Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty‐first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human‐caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.
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Globally, anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a significant driver of increased fire danger, independent of natural climate variability.
“Globally, anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a significant driver of increased fire danger, independent of natural climate variability (Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019
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The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system
Coppola, A. I., Wagner, S., Lennartz, S. T., Seidel, M., Ward, N. D., Dittmar, T., Santín, C., & Jones, M. W. (2022) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00316-6 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire
Balch, J. K., Abatzoglou, J. T., Joseph, M. B., Koontz, M. J., Mahood, A. L., McGlinchy, J., Cattau, M. E., & Williams, P. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04325-1 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Self-citationLarge California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context
Keeley, J. E., & Syphard, A. D. (2021) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-021-00110-7 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
“Causes for these fires are multiple, but climate change has been implicated as a critical factor (Williams et al. 2019; Abatzoglou et al. 2019).”
BackgroundKreider, M. R., Higuera, P. E., Parks, S. A., Rice, W. L., White, N. D., & Larson, A. J. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46702-0 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
“Please verify these equafions, and either correct them or provide more informafion so that readers can reproduce the curves in Figure S12.”
Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California
Brown, P. T., Hanley, H., Mahesh, A., Reed, C., Strenfel, S. J., Davis, S. J., Kochanski, A. K., & Clements, C. B. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
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“Such an increase is consistent with earlier findings (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Jolly et al., 2015; Pechony & Shindell, 2010; Turco et al., 2018), but we acknowledge that future changes in direct human influences on wildfires have the potential to reverse this trend, as they have done in the past…”
ResultGlobal rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
Jones, M. W., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Doerr, S. H., Kolden, C. A., Mataveli, G., Pettinari, M. L., Quéré, C. L., Rosan, T. M., van der Werf, G. R., et al. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adl5889 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
“One of the drivers of change in forest fire potential is anthropogenic climate change, which is causing more frequent and extreme periods of drought and fire-favorable weather, often referred to as fire weather ( 4 , 6 , 31 ).”
BackgroundSelf-citationClimate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States
Touma, D., Stevenson, S. L., Swain, D. L., Singh, D., Kalashnikov, D. A., & Huang, X. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm0320 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
“By mid21st century, a “new normal” of heightened fire weather conditions are expected under projected warming (12, 20).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe role of large wild animals in climate change mitigation and adaptation
Malhi, Y. S., Lander, T. A., le Roux, E., Stevens, N., Macias‐Fauria, M., Wedding, L. M., Girardin, C. A. J., Kristensen, J. A., Sandom, C. J., Evans, T., et al. (2022) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.041 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Wildfire Danger Prediction and Understanding With Deep Learning
Kondylatos, S., Prapas, I., Ronco, M., Papoutsis, I., Camps‐Valls, G., Piles, M., Fernández‐Torres, M., & Carvalhais, N. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl099368 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
“To mitigate this difficulty, many studies have focused on identifying the links between fire weather and wildfire activity (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Bedia et al., 2015), following the assumption that weather has the most important control on fire.”
BackgroundImpacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Knutzen, F., Averbeck, P., Barrasso, C., Bouwer, L., Gardiner, B., Grünzweig, J., Hänel, S., Haustein, K., Johannessen, M. R., Kollet, S., et al. (2025) · Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events’ clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
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Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
Stevenson, S. L., Coats, S., Touma, D., Cole, J. E., Lehner, F., Fasullo, J., & Otto‐Bliesner, B. L. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2108124119 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models
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High fire frequency and the impact of the 2019–2020 megafires on Australian plant diversity
Gallagher, R. V., Allen, S. P., Mackenzie, B. D. E., Yates, C. J., Gosper, C. R., Keith, D. A., Merow, C., White, M., Wenk, E. H., Maitner, B., et al. (2021) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13265 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
“Projected changes to fire conditions under future climates (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Bowman et al., 2020) may expose many plant species to “interval squeeze”— a narrowing the favourable interval between fires, hence increasing local extinction risk by accelerating demographic processes associated…”
BackgroundD’Evelyn, S. M., Jung, J., Alvarado, E., Baumgartner, J. C., Caligiuri, P., Hagmann, R. K., Henderson, S. B., Hessburg, P. F., Hopkins, S., Kasner, E. J., et al. (2022) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-022-00355-7 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
“While large fire years can be seen in the historical record throughout the western US [38], large fire events are now responsible for over 90% of burned area and significant increases in fire severity [3, 39].”
BackgroundClarke, H. G., Nolan, R. H., de Dios, V. R., Bradstock, R. A., Griebel, A., Khanal, S., & Boer, M. M. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
“We have bias corrected all global climate model data using a quantile mapping approach (Cannon et al. 2015) commonly used in wildfire research (Abatzoglou et al. 2019; Kirschmeier-Young et al. 2019; Ruffault et al. 2020).”
MethodTouma, D., Stevenson, S. L., Lehner, F., & Coats, S. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20570-w · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Krikken, F., Lehner, F., Haustein, K., Drobyshev, I., & van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2021) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
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“Although numerous studies have linked recent record-breaking fire events in boreal, temperate, and tropical regions to climate change (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021; Gutierrez et al., 2022; Williams et al., 2019), the global influence of climate on net emissions remains uncertain. These uncertainties…”
InfluentialGlobal burned area increasingly explained by climate change
Burton, C., Lampe, S., Kelley, D. I., Thiery, W., Hantson, S., Christidis, N., Gudmundsson, L., Forrest, M., Burke, E., Chang, J., et al. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w · Cited by 166 · see citing works
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“Several authors have emphasized the impact of climate change on fire occurrence, particularly the increasing frequency of drought periods and heat waves [243] leading to extreme events [244].”
BackgroundAbrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s
Parisien, M., Barber, Q. E., Bourbonnais, M., Daniels, L. D., Flannigan, M., Gray, R. W., Hoffman, K. M., Jain, P., Stephens, S. L., Taylor, S. W., et al. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
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Increasing Synchronous Fire Danger in Forests of the Western United States
Abatzoglou, J. T., Juang, C. S., Williams, P., Kolden, C. A., & Westerling, A. L. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl091377 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
“Climate projections show continued increases in the occurrence of synchronous fire danger through the 21st century, congruent with regional increases in fire weather indices (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Flannigan et al., 2013).”
BackgroundSelf-citationClimate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally
Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Cullen, A. C., Sadegh, M., Williams, E. L., Turco, M., & Jones, M. W. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
“I believe that the manuscript is acceptable for publication.”
Self-citationAnne Ganteaume, A., Barbero, R., Jappiot, M., & Maillé, E. (2021) · Journal of Safety Science and Resilience · doi:10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.01.001 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
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Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate
Garroussi, S. E., Giuseppe, F. D., Barnard, C., & Wetterhall, F. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
The Carbon Cycle of Southeast Australia During 2019–2020: Drought, Fires, and Subsequent Recovery
Byrne, B., Liu, J., Lee, M., Yin, Y., Bowman, K. W., Miyazaki, K., Norton, A., Joiner, J., Pollard, D. F., GRIFFITH, D. W. T., et al. (2021) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2021av000469 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Loss of terrestrial biodiversity in Australia: Magnitude, causation, and response
Legge, S., Rumpff, L., Garnett, S. T., & Woinarski, J. C. Z. (2023) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adg7870 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
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Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate
Xie, Y., Lin, M., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Horowitz, L. W., Lawrence, D. M., Li, F., & Séférian, R. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2111372119 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development
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Climate Change Penalty to Ozone Air Quality: Review of Current Understandings and Knowledge Gaps
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Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective
Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Bloomfield, K. J., Dong, N., Forkel, M., Forrest, M., Ningthoujam, R. K., Pellegrini, A. F. A., Shen, Y., Baudena, M., et al. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac39be · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Rapid bacterial and fungal successional dynamics in first year after chaparral wildfire
Pulido‐Chavez, M. F., Randolph, J. W. J., Zalman, C. A., Larios, L., Homyak, P. M., & Glassman, S. I. (2022) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.16835 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
“The rapid increase in wildfire frequency, severity, and extent in the western United States (Riley & Loehman, 2016) and around the globe (Abatzoglou et al., 2019) has renewed interest in secondary succession.”
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Climate drivers of global wildfire burned area
Grillakis, M., Voulgarakis, A., Rovithakis, A., Seiradakis, K., Koutroulis, A., Field, R., Kasoar, M., Papadopoulos, A., & Lazaridis, M. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5fa1 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires
Higuera, P. E., Cook, M., Balch, J. K., Stavros, E. N., Mahood, A. L., & Denis, L. A. S. (2023) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
“Mitigating anthropogenic climate change, given its impacts on fuel aridity (6, 14, 19), is a clear overarching necessity for addressing the wildfire crisis.”
BackgroundKelley, D. I., Burton, C., Giuseppe, F. D., Jones, M. W., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., McNorton, J., Liu, Z., Bradley, A. S. I., Blackford, K. R., et al. (2025) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Self-citationExtratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires
Janssen, T. A. J., Jones, M. W., Finney, D., van der Werf, G. R., van Wees, D., Xu, W., & Veraverbeke, S. (2023) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z · Cited by 88 · see citing works
“In these forests, increases in lightning occurrence are likely to further exacerbate the effects of increased flammability on fire occurrence and burned area 17,35 .”
Systems knowledge for sustainable soil and land management
Löbmann, M. T., Maring, L., Prokop, G., Brils, J. M., Bender, J., Bispo, A., & Helming, K. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153389 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
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Self-citationThe Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information
Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Ranasinghe, R., Sillmann, J., Coppola, E., Arnell, N. W., Cruz, F. A. T., Dessai, S., Iles, C. E., Islam, A. K. M. S., et al. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002803 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
“capacity and firefighting efforts (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
BackgroundUnderstanding fire regimes in Europe
Galizia, L. F., Curt, T., Barbero, R., & Rodrígues, M. (2021) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf21081 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationChanges in land use enhance the sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to fire-climate extremes
Kumar, S. V., Getirana, A., Libonati, R., Hain, C., Mahanama, S., & Andela, N. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-05130-0 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Cordero, R. R., Feron, S. C., Damiani, A., Carrasco, J. F., Karas, C., Wang, C., Kraamwinkel, C. T., & Beaulieu, A. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-52481-x · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Ecological resilience and vegetation transition in the face of two successive large wildfires
Steel, Z. L., Foster, D. E., Coppoletta, M., Lydersen, J. M., Stephens, S. L., Paudel, A., Markwith, S. H., Merriam, K. E., & Collins, B. M. (2021) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.13764 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
“While topography is fixed, weather is highly dynamic at short (diurnal) and intermediate (annual) time- scales and sensitive to climate change at longer (multidecadal) time- scales (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Collins, 2014).”
BackgroundBoaggio, K. L., LeDuc, S. D., Rice, R. B., Duffney, P. F., Foley, K. M., Holder, A. L., McDow, S. R., & Weaver, C. P. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c02099 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
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Socio-Psychological, Economic and Environmental Effects of Forest Fires
Kalogiannidis, S., Chatzitheodoridis, F., Kalfas, D., Patitsa, C. D., & Papagrigoriou, A. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6070280 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
“Fires have become more intense as a result of global climate change, with far-reaching ecological and social consequences [66–69].”
What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?
Park, T., Hashimoto, H., Wang, W., Thrasher, B. L., Michaelis, A., Lee, T. J., Brosnan, I. G., & Nemani, R. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003330 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
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“Hotter temperatures from a warming climate coupled with lower moisture from chang-es in precipitation regimes also produce drier conditions, intensifying the risk for larger wildfires ( 9 , 10 ).”
Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes
Menor, I. O., Prat‐Guitart, N., Spadoni, G. L., Hsu, A., Fernandes, P. M., Puig-Gironès, R., Ascoli, D., Bilbao, B., Bacciu, V., Brotons, L., et al. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“Climate change modi fi es the fi re weather 3 promoting extreme fi re behaviour 4 and, in many regions, it has increased vegetation fl ammability 1,3 , the frequency and intensity of wild fi res 5 (Table 1).”
Attributing Increases in Fire Weather to Anthropogenic Climate Change Over France
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., Pimont, F., Ruffault, J., & Curt, T. (2020) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00104 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“Climate change projections suggest widespread increase in fire danger and fire weather extremes across much of the globe over the twenty-first century (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationHow climate change and fire exclusion drive wildfire regimes at actionable scales
Hanan, E. J., Ren, J., Tague, C., Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Bart, R. R., Kennedy, M. C., Liu, M., & Adam, J. C. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd78e · Cited by 79 · see citing works
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Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire’s role in the Earth system
Bowring, S., Jones, M. W., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., & Abiven, S. (2022) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00892-0 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Ecological consequences of Australia's “Black Summer” bushfires: Managing for recovery
Dickman, C. R. (2021) · Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management · doi:10.1002/ieam.4496 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Tang, W., He, C., Emmons, L. K., & Zhang, J. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad31da · Cited by 67 · see citing works
New seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Buchholz, R. R., Park, M., Worden, H. M., Tang, W., Edwards, D. P., Gaubert, B., Deeter, M. N., Sullivan, T., Ru, M., Chin, M., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29623-8 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
The importance of antecedent vegetation and drought conditions as global drivers of burnt area
Kuhn-Régnier, A., Voulgarakis, A., Nowack, P. J., Forkel, M., Prentice, I. C., & Harrison, S. P. (2021) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“…by a number of regional studies (e.g. Westerling, 2006; van Oldenborgh et al., 2021; Goss et al., 2020; Barbero et al., 2015) At the global scale, Abatzoglou et al. (2019) showed that anthropogenic climate change had led to an increase in fire weather over 22 % of the global burnable area by…”
McEvoy, D. J., Pierce, D. W., Kalansky, J. F., Cayan, D. R., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001736 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
“Several studies have examined climate change impacts on fire weather and fire danger indices in the region (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Brown et al., 2004; Goss et al., 2020), but thus far, no studies have evaluated projected changes in extreme EDDI days for fire danger applications.”
BackgroundSelf-citationTowards a systemic approach to fire risk management
Bacciu, V., Sirca, C., & Spano, D. (2021) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.12.015 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece
Rovithakis, A., Grillakis, M. G., Seiradakis, K. D., Giannakopoulos, C., Karali, A., Field, R. D., Lazaridis, M., & Voulgarakis, A. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5f94 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Predicting Paradise: Modeling future wildfire disasters in the western US
Ager, A. A., Day, M. A., Alcasena, F., Evers, C., Short, K. C., & Grenfell, I. C. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147057 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“Given predicted climate change effects on the global fire footprint (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2010), analytical templates need to begin incorporating the assessment of wildfire exposure from extreme wildfire events aswith other natural disasters.”
BackgroundXu, Y., Uhl, D., Zhang, N., Zhao, C., Qin, S., Liang, H., & Sun, Y. (2020) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2020.109819 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Ocean carbon from space: Current status and priorities for the next decade
Brewin, R. J. W., Sathyendranath, S., Kulk, G., Rio, M., Concha, J. A., Bell, T. G., Bracher, A. U., Fichot, C. G., Frölicher, T. L., Galí, M., et al. (2023) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104386 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Climate-induced fire regime amplification in Alberta, Canada
Whitman, E., Parks, S. A., Holsinger, L. M., & Parisien, M. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac60d6 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Extreme weather in a changing climate
Capua, G. D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acfb23 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
“Model experiments estimate that anthropogenic induced changes in fire weather indices have already emerged from natural variability for 22% of the burnable land area globally by 2019, while by the mid twenty-first century the emergence will reach 30%–60% (Abatzoglou et al 2019).”
BackgroundVirgilio, G. D., Evans, J. P., Clarke, H. G., Sharples, J. J., Hirsch, A. L., & Hart, M. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl088893 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
“Climate change is already driving wildfire weather conditions away from the expected range of internal variability for a large portion of the globe, and this will become more widespread with continued global warming (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
Background
- Authors
- Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University New York NY USA
- Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Abatzoglou, John T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-01-08
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 326-336
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2902663386
- Semantic Scholar
- cb21fa91c7c190d89887888cce536eccbcd405fb
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 16.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DMS‐1520873)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- fire weather, fire weather index, emergence timing, anthropogenic climate change, climate model projections, global temperature change, Amazon fires, fire adaptation
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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