The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall
Open accessAbstract
We completed a meta‐analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1 σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was −12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business‐as‐usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.
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There is increasing evidence that deforestation affects rainfall patterns.
“There is increasing evidence that deforestation affects rainfall patterns (Lawrence and Vandecar 2014, Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015, Van Noordwijk and Ellison 2019).”
From The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Africa: a data-driven assessment (2021) · cites this paper as Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015
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High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change
Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V., Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T. R., et al. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1244693 · Cited by 11,704 · see citing works
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Research works printed but not linked: 11
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The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Africa: a data-driven assessment
Duku, C., & Hein, L. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abfcfb · Cited by 51 · see citing works
- Authors
- Spracklen
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-11-12
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 21
- Pages
- 9546-9552
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2103232509
- Cited by
- 281
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 28 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 11
- FWCI
- 15.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/G015015/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Amazon deforestation, climate model simulation, rainfall reduction, interannual rainfall variability
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