CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 51Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesConservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Africa: a data-driven assessment

Open access
Duku, Confidence, Hein, Lars·2021·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/abfcfb
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Forests play an important role in maintaining rainfall patterns worldwide by recycling water back to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. We present a novel spatiotemporal data-driven model and assessment of the impacts of various deforestation scenarios on rainfall patterns in sub-Saharan Africa, where rainfed agriculture is the main source of income and provides food for a large part of the population. Our model is based on the convolutional long short term memory neural network and uses a combination of climate and vegetation time-series data to predict rainfall and to perform simulation experiments. Our results show that complete deforestation (i.e. conversion of all humid forests to short grasslands) would greatly reduce rainfall magnitude in the deforested areas. Above the equator, the large majority of areas not currently forested would also receive less rainfall. However, complete deforestation would slightly increase rainfall in some parts of Southern Africa and decrease it in other parts. The impacts of partial deforestation also differ across Africa. In West Africa, even moderate tree cover loss (i.e. 30%) reduces rainfall magnitude whereas in Central and Southern Africa, a threshold of 70% tree cover loss is required to reduce rainfall magnitude. Deforestation of remaining humid rainforest areas is thus likely to dramatically affect rainfed agriculture across the continent, in particular in the maize-based cropping systems north of the equator.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

A ConvLSTM data-driven model trained on 2000–2015 African climate and vegetation data finds that deforestation in the Guineo-Congolian region would substantially reduce rainfall in deforested areas and in many areas above the equator, with mixed effects in Southern Africa. Partial deforestation responses are nonlinear: West Africa loses rainfall even at 30% tree cover loss, while Central Africa requires about 70% loss to reduce rainfall.

Key findings

  • The model explains 75% of variance in daily rainfall across space and time, with a test-sample RMSE of 5.3 mm d⁻¹ and PBIAS of −6%, indicating slight underestimation of peak wet-season rainfall.
  • Complete deforestation reduces rainfall magnitude in deforested areas; the Central African Republic and South Sudan would lose around 50% of their current average annual rainfall of about 1000 mm yr⁻¹, and the Soudan-Sahel zone up to 40%. Wet-season duration would fall by up to 2 weeks in worst-affected areas, peak rainfall would delay in West Africa and arrive early in Central Africa, and Southern Africa shows mixed increases and decreases.
  • Partial deforestation differs across Africa: in West Africa, even 30% tree cover loss reduces rainfall magnitude, while in Central and Southern Africa, 50% loss or less increases rainfall in most deforested areas and rainfall reduces only after a 70% tree cover loss threshold.
  • Local grid-cell deforestation in West Africa reduces rainfall locally and in neighboring areas; deforestation in northern Liberia reduces rainfall by about 80 mm yr⁻¹ in north-west Liberia and Sierra Leone, while local deforestation in Central Africa decreases rainfall locally but increases remote rainfall by about 10 mm yr⁻¹.

Methods

  • A convolutional long short-term memory neural network (ConvLSTM) predicts daily rainfall over Africa at 50 × 50 km using ERA-Interim climate covariates (wind speed and direction, net solar radiation, surface air pressure, evaporation from water bodies only) and MODIS tree cover and LAI; atmospheric moisture was excluded, and vegetation covariates were downscaled to daily timesteps. Training used 2000–2012 and testing used 2013–2015.
  • The network has four stacked ConvLSTM layers between two stacked CNN layers and two stacked transposed convolutional layers, using a 3 × 3 neighborhood; rainfall magnitude, duration, and timing of peak rainfall were computed following Feng et al (2013).
  • Simulation experiments changed only vegetation inputs while holding climate inputs constant: complete and partial (30%, 50%, 70%) deforestation in the Guineo-Congolian region, plus individual high-tree-cover/high-LAI grid cells replaced by short grassland.

Limitations

  • The paper states that the model analyses 2000–2015 relationships and extrapolates them to future forest cover much lower than experienced in that period; the complete deforestation scenario is therefore illustrative and a first estimate, and a process-based ocean-atmosphere-land surface model could be more accurate for forest losses far exceeding current deforestation patterns.
  • The paper states that it did not address ecosystem feedbacks, such as increased fire risk from reduced rainfall, so it may underestimate deforestation effects; it also notes that higher spatial resolution and more extensive vegetation data beyond LAI and tree cover would improve the model but are computationally costly or mostly unavailable for Africa.
  • The paper states that its scenario is extreme because some forests are protected and current land-use change is partly to plantations with higher evapotranspiration than short grasslands, which would lead to somewhat lower rainfall impacts.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1088/1748-9326/abfcfb

Cites

39 of 39 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

22 of 43 cited sources checked · 12 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    There is increasing evidence that deforestation affects rainfall patterns.

    “There is increasing evidence that deforestation affects rainfall patterns (Lawrence and Vandecar 2014, Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015, Van Noordwijk and Ellison 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Lawrence and Vandecar 2014 source
    • cites Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015 source
    • cites Van Noordwijk and Ellison 2019 source
  • Premisecitation

    Forests affect cloud formation by releasing volatile organic compounds that form nuclei for raindrops.

    “In addition, forests affect cloud formation by releasing volatile organic compounds that form nuclei for raindrops (Kavouras et al 1998, Riccobono et al 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kavouras et al 1998 source
    • cites Riccobono et al 2014 source

      The Main Text (page unavailable) reports that oxidized biogenic vapors contribute to particle nucleation and that aerosol particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei. It does not show that forest-released compounds themselves form nuclei for raindrops: the studied mechanism involves oxidation products together with sulfuric acid, and the paper does not establish a direct link to raindrop formation. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    A major share of Africa's population is dependent upon rainfed agriculture.

    “Given that a major share of Africa's population is dependent upon rainfed agriculture (Gassner et al 2019)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gassner et al 2019 source

      In “The trouble with mixing food and income targets” (page unavailable), the paper says farming in sub-Saharan Africa is almost exclusively rainfed. “The rationale for mixing poverty and food security” says most people living on less than US$1.90 a day are rural and depend to some extent on agriculture. Neither passage establishes that a major share of Africa’s total population depends on rainfed agriculture. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationcitation

    The paper's results are well aligned, both in magnitude and spatial patterns, with Semazzi and Song (2001).

    “Our results are also well aligned, both in terms of magnitude and spatial patterns, with Semazzi and Song (2001), who model the effects of replacing tropical rainforest with savanna grassland with the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCM3 global climate model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Semazzi and Song (2001) source
  • Premisecitation

    Over Central and West Africa, the impact of deforestation is primarily characterized by a reduction in rainfall (Semazzi and Song 2001).

    “Over Central and West Africa, the impact of deforestation is primarily characterized by a reduction in rainfall (Semazzi and Song 2001).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Semazzi and Song 2001 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 33
  • May combine two claims. 27
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In relative terms, the forests of Central Africa, especially in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo, have been comparatively well preserved.

    “In relative terms, the forests of Central Africa, especially in the Democratic republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo have been comparatively well preserved (Hansen et al 2013, Keenan et al 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Hansen et al 2013 source
    • cites Keenan et al 2015 source

      Section 3.1 identifies the Democratic Republic of Congo as one of the countries with the most forest area, which lends limited support to the idea that substantial forest remains there. But section 3.2 reports declining forest area in West-Central Africa, and section 3.5 lists the DRC among Africa’s largest net forest losses in 2010–2015. The cited passages do not establish that Central Africa—or the Republic of Congo in particular—was comparatively well preserved. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Forests play an important role in maintaining rainfall patterns worldwide by recycling water back to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration.

    “Forests play an important role in maintaining rainfall patterns worldwide by recycling water back to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ellison et al 2017 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forests have evapotranspiration rates that are high compared to other ecosystems and thereby recycle rainfall back into the atmosphere where it becomes available to form clouds and new rainfall.

    “Forests have evapotranspiration rates that are high compared to other ecosystems and thereby recycle rainfall back into the atmosphere where it becomes available to form clouds and forms new rainfall (Ellison et al 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ellison et al 2017 source

      Section 2 says forest evapotranspiration supplies atmospheric moisture for precipitation and discusses its role in cloud formation and rainfall. It compares rainfall after air passes over forests versus sparse vegetation, but does not establish that forests have higher evapotranspiration rates than other ecosystems. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Pressure on sub-Saharan African forests from smallholder and commercial agriculture is rapidly intensifying.

    “However pressure on sub-Saharan African forests, from among others smallholder and commercial agriculture, is rapidly intensifying (Ordway et al 2017, FAO, UNEP 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ordway et al 2017 source
    • cites FAO, UNEP 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation has been forecasted to lead to lower rainfall in the Amazon.

    “Deforestation has been forecasted to lead to lower rainfall in the Amazon (Salazar et al 2015)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Salazar et al 2015 source

      Section 3.2.2.2 (page unavailable) reports modeled drying in the Amazon–Cerrado transition zone when the cumulative influence of Amazon deforestation is considered. It does not establish the more specific claim that deforestation was forecast to lower rainfall within the Amazon itself. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The effects of deforestation are noticeable at watershed to continental scales, with changes in forests in one country or watershed potentially affecting rainfall in other countries or watersheds.

    “The effects of deforestation are noticeable at watershed to continental scales, with changes in forests in one country or watershed potentially affecting rainfall in other countries or watersheds (Wang-Erlandsson et al 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wang-Erlandsson et al 2018 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    This service is underestimated-it is not usually included in either ecosystem services assessments or accounting efforts.

    “This service is underestimated-it is not usually included in either ecosystem services assessments or accounting efforts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hein et al 2020 source

      The indexed passages contain bibliographic metadata rather than the paper’s discussion. Searches for an underestimated ecosystem service and its omission from assessments or accounts found no passage addressing the claim, so our copy cannot verify it. (LLM, conf=0.72)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    In Africa, a large proportion of the population is dependent upon rainfed agriculture.

    “In Africa, a large proportion of the population is dependent upon rainfed agriculture (Gassner et al 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gassner et al 2019 source

      In “The trouble with mixing food and income targets,” the paper says farming in sub-Saharan Africa is almost exclusively rainfed. In “Policy implications,” it describes families depending on smallholder farms, but it does not establish that a large proportion of Africa’s population depends on rainfed agriculture. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Reduced rainfall generally increases fire risks.

    “For instance, reduced rainfall generally increases fire risks (Hoffmann 2003).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hoffmann 2003 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Semazzi and Song (2001) find that deforestation results in substantial rainfall reduction over Mozambique but a rainfall increase in other parts of Southern Africa, connected to changes in trapped Rossby wave train activity (McIntosh and Hendon 2018).

    “Similar to our results, they find that deforestation results in substantial rainfall reduction over Mozambique but a rainfall increase in other parts of Southern Africa, connected to changes in the trapped Rossby wave train activity generated by the mid-tropospheric latent heating over the tropical forest region (McIntosh and Hendon 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Semazzi and Song (2001) source
    • cites McIntosh and Hendon 2018 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationcitation

    The service 'maintaining rainfall patterns' is important to consider in ecosystem services studies, including those of IPBES and SEEA-EA.

    “Finally, our paper shows the importance of considering the service 'maintaining rainfall patterns' in ecosystem services studies including those of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and the System of Environmental Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting (e.g.Hein et al 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hein et al 2020 source

      The passages available from our copy are bibliographic metadata (labeled Abstract, no page given), not discussion of ecosystem services. Searches for “maintaining rainfall patterns” and for rainfall or precipitation in relation to IPBES and SEEA-EA found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Climate change is expected to reduce rainfall and increase temperatures in large parts of Africa, reducing the growing season.

    “Climate change is expected to reduce rainfall and increase temperatures in large parts of Africa, reducing the growing season (e.g.Duku et al 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Duku et al 2018 source

      The available Abstract passage discusses yield gaps, food availability, and forest conservation in Benin, but does not address the claimed rainfall decline, temperature increase, or shorter growing season across large parts of Africa. Searches for those terms and their paraphrases found no passage supporting the claim. (LLM, conf=0.73)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Maize-based farming systems are spread across Africa and provide food to some six to seven hundred million people.

    “For instance, maize-based farming systems are spread across Africa and provide food to some six to seven hundred million people (Dixon et al 2001, Van Ittersum et al 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Dixon et al 2001
    • cites Van Ittersum et al 2016 source

      The Results and Discussion describe rainfed maize as the dominant crop in sub-Saharan Africa, supporting the broad point that maize farming is widespread there. The paper does not say that maize-based farming systems provide food to 600–700 million people; its population and food-demand figures concern five cereals jointly, not maize-based systems. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation has been severe in most West African countries and is still continuing, for instance in Ivory Coast where forests are converted to cocoa plantations.

    “In general terms, deforestation has been severe in most West African countries (Hansen et al 2013, CILSS 2016), and is still continuing, for instance, in Ivory Coast where forests are still converted to, among others, cocoa plantations (Barima et al 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Hansen et al 2013 source
    • cites CILSS 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Barima et al 2016 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Semazzi and Song (2001) find rainfall reductions in deforested areas with 2-3 mm d -1 in July-September and less than 1 mm d -1 during the wetter autumn and spring months.

    “They find rainfall reductions in deforested areas with 2-3 mm d -1 in July-September and less than 1 mm d -1 during the wetter autumn and spring months.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Semazzi and Song (2001) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Duration of the wet season and timing of rainfall are likely to be affected by conversion of humid forests to grasslands.

    “Duration of the wet season and timing of rainfall are also likely to be affected by conversion of humid forests to grasslands.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Complete deforestation would slightly increase rainfall in some parts of Southern Africa and decrease it in other parts, with some areas, particularly in the eastern part, receiving more rainfall and other areas receiving less.

    “However, complete deforestation would slightly increase rainfall in some parts of Southern Africa and decrease it in other parts.”
    • Also stated in: § 3.2. Effects of deforestation on rainfall patterns · plain
      “However, in Southern Africa, the picture is mixed, with some areas, in particular in the eastern part of the region, receiving more rainfall, and other areas receiving less rainfall.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Based on the test sample, a percent bias (PBIAS) of -6% was recorded, indicating that the model tends to underestimate daily rainfall during peak rainfall events in the wet season.

    “Based on the test sample, a percent bias (PBIAS) of -6% was recorded indicating that the model has the tendency to underestimate daily rainfall during peak rainfall events in the wet season.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Predictive accuracy of the model increases from daily to annual rainfall.

    “Generally, predictive accuracy of the model increases from daily to annual rainfall.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The forest-rainfall relationship is not always monotonic and critical thresholds exist.

    “Policy-making should also consider that the forest-rainfall relationship is not always monotonic and critical thresholds exist which, together with teleconnection effects, call for transnational or regional cooperation in forest management.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In West Africa, even moderate tree cover loss (30%) reduces rainfall magnitude whereas in Central Africa, a threshold of 70% loss of remaining tree cover is required to reduce rainfall magnitude.

    “In West Africa, even moderate tree cover loss (i.e.30%) reduces rainfall magnitude whereas in Central Africa, a threshold of 70% loss of remaining tree cover is required to reduce rainfall magnitude.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In remote locations, complete deforestation reduces rainfall magnitude in areas above the equator whereas large areas below the equator experience slight increases in rainfall magnitude.

    “In remote locations, complete deforestation reduces rainfall magnitude in areas above the equator whereas large areas below the equator experience slight increases in rainfall magnitude.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning

    The greater the tree cover loss, the greater the reduction in rainfall magnitude.

    “The greater the tree cover loss the greater the reduction in rainfall magnitude.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Timing of peak rainfall will delay in large areas in West Africa, whereas peak rainfall would be early in large areas in Central Africa.

    “Timing of peak rainfall will also delay in large areas in West Africa, whereas peak rainfall would be early in large areas in Central Africa (figure 4(f)).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Central Africa, local deforestation decreases rainfall locally and increases rainfall, to a lesser extent, in remote locations.

    “However, in Central Africa, it decreases rainfall locally and increases rainfall, to a lesser extent, in remote locations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The worst affected areas will be in the deforested areas and/or nearby areas where the wet season is likely to be reduced by up to 2 weeks.

    “The worst affected areas will be in the deforested areas and/or the nearby areas where the wet season is likely to be reduced by up to 2 weeks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forests lead to local cooling, affecting turbulence and cloud formation.

    “Finally, forests lead to local cooling, affecting turbulence and cloud formation (Li et al 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Li et al 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The result of many grid cells having near-zero error could be influenced by the large number of dry days in several grid cells.

    “This result could be influenced by the large number of dry days in several grid cells.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation has been linked to decreases in rainfall in eastern Australia.

    “and has been linked to decreases in rainfall in eastern Australia (McAlpine et al 2009)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites McAlpine et al 2009 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation has been linked to decreases in rainfall in West Africa.

    “and West Africa (Zeng 2003).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Zeng 2003 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Given the low PBIAS, underestimation across space and time is either infrequent and/or not substantial.

    “Given the low PBIAS, underestimation across space and time is either infrequent and/or not substantial.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation has been linked to decreases in rainfall in Kalimantan.

    “Kalimantan (McAlpine et al 2018)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites McAlpine et al 2018 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The model was evaluated using an independent test sample held out during training.

    “The test sample, however, was an independent data held out during the training process and which was used to evaluate the performance of the model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    In both simulation experiments, only vegetation input data were changed and climate input data remained the same.

    “In both simulation experiments, only vegetation input data were changed and climate input data remained the same.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The service of maintaining rainfall patterns is even more important in Africa than in any other place in the world because the continent has vast agricultural zones dependent upon secondary rainfall, a large and growing population for which rainfed agriculture is the main source of income and food, and extensive areas already constrained in cropping potential by low rainfall.

    “Arguably, the service is even more important in Africa than in any other place in the world because the continent has vast agricultural zones that are dependent upon secondary rainfall (i.e.rainfall not generated from evaporation in oceans), a large and growing population for which rainfed agriculture is the main source of income and food, and extensive areas that are already constrained in Cropp”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    A process-based ocean-atmosphere-land surface model could be more accurate in representing impacts of forest losses that far exceed current deforestation patterns.

    “A process-based oceanatmosphere-land surface model (e.g.McAlpine et al 2009) could be more accurate in representing impacts of forest losses that far exceed current deforestation patterns.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites McAlpine et al 2009 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The population of Africa is expected to double between now and 2050.

    “At the same time, the population of Africa is expected to double between now and 2050 (UN 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UN 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Plantations have a higher evapotranspiration rate than short grasslands and therefore lead to a somewhat lower impact on rainfall patterns.

    “which have a higher evapotranspiration rate than short grasslands and therefore lead to a somewhat lower impact on rainfall patterns.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Specific effects of deforestation on rainfall depend on both local and remote characteristics, and these effects are non-linear.

    “These different rainfall responses go to show that specific effects depend on both local and remote characteristics, and that these effects are non-linear.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The values from Abiodun et al (2008) are higher than what this paper finds, but their scenario also involves deforestation in the sub-humid forests of West Africa.

    “These values are higher than what we find, but we note that their scenario also involves deforestation in the sub-humid forests of West Africa.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abiodun et al (2008) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Abiodun et al (2008) find that extreme deforestation reduces average monsoon rainfall across West Africa with approximately 50-400 mm yr -1.

    “Our results can be compared with those of Abiodun et al (2008) who deploy the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model and find that extreme deforestation reduces average monsoon rainfall across West Africa with approximately 50-400 mm yr -1 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abiodun et al (2008) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is of paramount importance to recognize the dependency of African rainfed agriculture, especially cropland areas above the equator and in West Africa, on forest conservation, and to protect remaining forests in order to safeguard farmers' livelihoods.

    “Hence, it is of paramount importance to recognize the dependency of African rainfed agriculture, especially cropland areas above the equator and in West Africa, on forest conservation, and to protect remaining forests in order to safeguard farmers' livelihoods.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: There is as yet very little consideration of the ecosystem service of maintaining rainfall patterns provided by African forests in policy and decision making.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The forecast of how rainfall would change as a function of complete deforestation should be seen as illustrative, showing a first estimate of the potential consequences of the loss of African forests.

    “Consequently, our forecast of how rainfall would change as a function of complete deforestation should be seen as illustrativeshowing a first estimate of the potential consequences of the loss of African forests.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The model analyses changes in rainfall patterns as they occurred in the period 2000-2015 and extrapolates the correlation between deforestation and rainfall to the future with a forest cover much lower than experienced in the period 2000-2015.

    “A first point is that the model analyses changes in rainfall patterns as they have occurred in the period 2000-2015, and extrapolates the correlation between deforestation and rainfall to the future with a forest cover much lower than experienced in the period 2000-2015.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    With increasing deforestation, positive feedbacks with negative societal consequences may occur.

    “With increasing deforestation, positive feedbacks (with negative societal consequences) may occur.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Scheffer et al 2001 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation continues across Africa, for instance in Tanzania and Zambia, both as a consequence of large scale land conversion and due to smallholders establishing new farms and wood harvesting for firewood and charcoal production.

    “Nevertheless, deforestation continues across Africa, for instance in Tanzania and Zambia (Hansen et al 2013), both as a consequence of large scale land conversion and due to smallholders establishing new farms and wood harvesting for firewood and charcoal production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hansen et al 2013 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The extrapolation effect is particularly relevant for the complete deforestation scenario and less so for the single-pixel deforestation analysis.

    “This effect, of course, is particularly relevant for the scenario where we deforest all humid tropical forests of Africa and replace them with short grassland, and less so for the analysis where we deforest a single pixel (50 × 50 km) in order to assess impacts on rainfall.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The deforestation scenario presented is extreme because some forests are protected and current land-use change is partly to plantations.

    “Our paper presents the impacts of an extreme scenario, because some of the forests are protected and also because the current land-use change is in part to plantations, which have a higher evapotranspiration rate than short grasslands and therefore lead to a somewhat lower impact on rainfall patterns.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Zheng and Eltahir (1997) find that the monsoon collapses in West Africa should all tropical forests be replaced by savannah vegetation.

    “Zheng and Eltahir (1997), in an older paper, even find that the monsoon collapses in West Africa should all tropical forests be replaced by savannah vegetation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Zheng and Eltahir (1997) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Increased fire risks may further exacerbate pressure on forests leading to further reductions in forest cover, in particular, in sub-humid conditions.

    “Increased fire risks may further exacerbate pressure on forests leading to further reductions in forest cover, in particular, in sub-humid conditions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Reductions in rainfall patterns due to deforestation could have severe economic and food security implications that urgently need to be acknowledged in policy making.

    “Hence, reductions in rainfall patterns due to deforestation could have severe economic and food security implications that urgently need to be acknowledged in policy making.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Productivity of maize-based farming systems is constrained by water, and water shortages in dry years tend to lead to crop failures.
51 of 51

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Changes in tree cover and LAI are unlikely to substantially affect surface net solar radiation, wind speed and direction, and air pressure on the surface of the earth.

    “We assumed that changes in tree cover and LAI are unlikely to substantially affect surface net solar radiation, wind speed and direction and air pressure on the surface of the earth.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Rainfall pattern in a specific grid cell is determined by antecedent climatic and vegetation factors in that grid cell and in the immediate 3×3 neighborhood.

    “We formulated the interaction between forests and rainfall patterns as a spatiotemporal regression problem, where the rainfall pattern (i.e.magnitude, duration and timing of peak rainfall) in a specific grid cell is not only determined by antecedent climatic and vegetation factors in that grid cell but also in the immediate neighborhood (3 × 3 neighborhood area).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    For most of Africa, the effect of deforestation on rainfall has not yet been modelled.

    “However, for most of Africa, the effect of deforestation on rainfall has not yet been modelled”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Across Africa, rainfall is derived from water evaporated in the Atlantic or Indian Ocean and the major lakes spread across the continent, or water resulting from evapotranspiration in Africa's humid ecosystems, in particular the Central African rainforest.

    “Across Africa, rainfall is derived from water evaporated in the Atlantic or Indian Ocean and the major lakes spread across the continent, or water resulting from evapotranspiration in Africa's humid ecosystems, in particular, the Central African rainforest.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Deforestation in Africa is rapid, and a major share of forests in West Africa have already been lost.

    “As elsewhere in the tropics, deforestation in Africa is rapid, and a major share of forests in West Africa have already been lost.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Grassland LAI is the replacement vegetation after tree cover loss.

    “where nLAI is the LAI after tree cover loss, gLAI is grassland LAI which is assumed to be the replacement vegetation after tree cover loss”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Consistent and spatially-explicit time-series data needed to capture vegetation-climate interactions are mostly unavailable for Africa.

    “However, consistent and spatially-explicit time-series data needed are mostly unavailable for Africa.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many policy makers in Africa do not see deforestation as a serious concern and assume forest loss is an acceptable part of economic development.

    “To date, many policy makers in Africa do not see this as a serious concern, instead assuming that forest loss is an acceptable part of economic development.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Productivity of maize-based farming systems is constrained by water, and water shortages in dry years tend to lead to crop failures.

    “Productivity of these systems is constrained by water, and water shortages in dry years tend to lead to crop failures.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is as yet very little consideration of the ecosystem service of maintaining rainfall patterns provided by African forests in policy and decision making.

    “Unfortunately, there is as yet very little consideration of this key ecosystem service provided by African forests in policy and decision making.”
10 of 10

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 40 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Duku, C., & Hein, L.
Affiliations
Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Corresponding author
Duku, Confidence
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2021-05-26
Volume
16
Issue
6
Pages
064044
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/abfcfb
OpenAlex
W3157399840
Cited by
51
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 1
FWCI
3.48
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
Keywords
deforestation, rainfall patterns, evapotranspiration, tree cover loss, sub-Saharan Africa, rainfed agriculture, convolutional LSTM, precipitation forecasting, maize cropping systems, vegetation-climate interactions

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-03.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-03.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review