On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2

Abstract

A recent interpretation of climate model projections concluded that “warmer is more arid.” In contrast, dust records and other evidence have led the geoscience community to conclude that “warmer is less arid” leading to an aridity paradox. The “warmer is more arid” interpretation is based on a projected increase in the vapour pressure deficit (∼ 7–9% K−1) that results in a projected increase in potential evaporation that greatly exceeds the projected increase in precipitation. However, the increase in potential evaporation does not result in an increase in (actual) evaporation which remains more or less constant in the model output. Projected changes in the long‐term aridity can be assessed by directly interrogating the climate model output. To that end, we equate lack of precipitation with meteorological aridity and lack of runoff with hydrologic aridity. A third perspective, agro‐ecological aridity, is not directly related to the water lost but rather to the carbon gain and is equated with the reduction in photosynthetic uptake of CO 2. We reexamine the same climate model output and conclude that “warmer is less arid” from all perspectives and in agreement with the geological records. Future research will need to add the critical regional and seasonal perspectives to the aridity assessments described here.