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Cited by 429

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 53 of the 53 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

Open access
Vousdoukas, Michalis I., Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Verlaan, Martin, Feyen, Luc·2017·Earth's Future
DOI 10.1002/2016ef000505
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Abstract

Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100‐year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high‐concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100‐year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high‐end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST. Plain Language Summary: Future extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100‐year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100‐year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high‐end warming.

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Metadata

Authors
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., & Feyen, L.
Venue
Earth's Future
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2017-03
Volume
5
Issue
3
Pages
304-323
ISSN
2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1002/2016ef000505
OpenAlex
W2729766392
Cited by
429
References
53
FWCI
31.05
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
gold

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