Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Coastal flood damages are expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels rise and socioeconomic development increases the number of people and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future damages and adaptation costs are essential for supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as for designing strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk. This paper presents such estimates derived by taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in socioeconomic development, sea-level rise, continental topography data, population data, and adaptation strategies.
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- Authors
- Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A.
- Affiliations
- Global Climate Forum (DE)
- Global Climate Forum, 10829 Berlin, Germany;
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Tyndall Centre (GB)
- University of Sussex (GB)
- Universität Innsbruck (AT)
- University of Liège (BE)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-02-03
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 3292-3297
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3948227
- OpenAlex
- W2124614231
- Cited by
- 1,461
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 121 · 2025: 111 · 2024: 158 · 2023: 159 · 2022: 157 · 2021: 188 · 2020: 124 · 2019: 127 · 2018: 105 · 2017: 92 · 2016: 63 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 18
- FWCI
- 57.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Open Repository and Bibliography (University of Liège) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (282746)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Keywords
- sea level rise, coastal flooding, flood damage, sea level rise scenarios, dikes, economic losses, population exposure, climate model uncertainty, global mean sea level
- MeSH terms
- Computer Simulation, Forecasting, Geography, Humans, Oceans and Seas, Population Dynamics, Socioeconomic Factors, Risk Assessment, Models, Economic, Uncertainty, Floods, Climate Change
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