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Cited by 62Atmospheric chemistry and aerosolsAtmospheric Ozone and ClimateClimate variability and models

The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone pollution

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Garcia‐Menendez, Fernando, Monier, Erwan, Selin, Noelle E.·2017·Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1002/2016gl071565
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Abstract

Climate change can impact air quality by altering the atmospheric conditions that determine pollutant concentrations. Over large regions of the U.S., projected changes in climate are expected to favor formation of ground‐level ozone and aggravate associated health effects. However, modeling studies exploring air quality‐climate interactions have often overlooked the role of natural variability, a major source of uncertainty in projections. Here we use the largest ensemble simulation of climate‐induced changes in air quality generated to date to assess its influence on estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone. We find that natural variability can significantly alter the robustness of projections of the future climate's effect on ozone pollution. In this study, a 15 year simulation length minimum is required to identify a distinct anthropogenic‐forced signal. Therefore, we suggest that studies assessing air quality impacts use multidecadal simulations or initial condition ensembles. With natural variability, impacts attributable to climate may be difficult to discern before midcentury or under stabilization scenarios.

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  • Our results align with the broader literature emphasizing that, while internal variability can obscure the precise effects of climate change and even of climate interventions on air quality, sustained emissions reductions remain critical for determining future air quality and health outcomes.

    “Our results therefore align with the broader literature emphasizing that, while internal variability can obscure the precise effects of climate change (Pienkosz et al., 2019; Garcia-Menendez et al., 2017) and even of climate interventions on air quality, sustained emissions reductions remain critical for determining future air quality and health outcomes.”

    From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Garcia-Menendez et al., 2017

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Authors
Garcia‐Menendez, F., Monier, E., & Selin, N. E.
Affiliations
  • Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
ORCID
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2017-03-28
Volume
44
Issue
6
Pages
2911-2921
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
DOI
10.1002/2016gl071565
OpenAlex
W2802853037
Cited by
62
References
82
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 2
FWCI
4.12
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 3 d)
Locations
  • Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Division (XA-83600001-0)
  • U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science
  • National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords
natural variation, climate change impacts, surface ozone, ozone pollution, air quality projections, anthropogenic forcing, ensemble simulation, initial condition ensembles, uncertainty in climate projections

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