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Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

Open access
Risser, Mark D., Wehner, Michael F.·2017·Geophysical Research Letters

Abstract

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate‐based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human‐induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

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Metadata

Authors
Risser, M. D., & Wehner, M. F.
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2017-12-23
Volume
44
Issue
24
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
OpenAlex
W2775754804
Cited by
386
References
21
FWCI
27.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1002/2017gl075888
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Risser, M. D., & Wehner, M. F. (2017). Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075888

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