The DOI matches its Crossref record; 90 of the 90 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
Open accessAbstract
Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply‐demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north‐west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South‐eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100‐year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.
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A review of environmental droughts: Increased risk under global warming?
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Quiring, S. M., Peña-Gallardo, M., Yuan, S., & Domínguez-Castro, F. (2020) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102953 · Cited by 733
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Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change
Grillakis, M. G. (2019) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001 · Cited by 404
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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts
Hao, Z., Hao, F., Xia, Y., Feng, S., Sun, C., Zhang, X., Fu, Y., Hao, Y., Zhang, Y., & Meng, Y. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241 · Cited by 313
Metadata
- Authors
- Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R. A., Carrao, H., Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., & Feyen, L.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-04-13
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 3285-3296
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2790864323
- Cited by
- 829
- References
- 90
- FWCI
- 35.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R. A., Carrao, H., Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., & Feyen, L. (2018). Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076521
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