Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming.
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The frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events is likely to increase, which will affect the tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere system.
“The frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events is likely to increase (Cai et al., 2014(Cai et al., , 2015a,b,b), which will affect the tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere system.”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Cai et al., 2014
Previous studies found a stronger rainfall response to ENSO SST variability even if ENSO SST variability itself does not change.
“consistent with findings by previous studies of a stronger rainfall response to ENSO SST variability even if ENSO SST variability itself does not change 2-4 .”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [3]
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
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A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., et al. (2016) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Cited by 2,377 · see citing works
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2743 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Self-citationGobler, C. J., Doherty, O. M., Hattenrath-Lehmann, T. K., Griffith, A. W., Kang, Y., & Litaker, R. W. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1619575114 · Cited by 537 · see citing works
Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M., Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., et al. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x · Cited by 383 · see citing works
Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self-citationContinued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
Wang, G., Cai, W., Gan, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Lin, X., Chen, Z., & McPhaden, M. J. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3351 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Self-citationThe tropical atlantic observing system
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Self-citationMateria, S., García, L. P., van Straaten, C., O, S., Mamalakis, A., Cavicchia, L., Coumou, D., de Luca, P., Kretschmer, M., & Donat, M. (2024) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.914 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming
Callahan, C. W., Chen, C., Rugenstein, M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Yang, S., & Moyer, E. J. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems
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Greenhouse warming intensifies north tropical Atlantic climate variability
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Self-citationAbiotic Stress Responses are Governed by Reactive Oxygen Species and Age
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- Authors
- Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., van Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., England, M. H., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E., & Jin, F.-F.
- Affiliations
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Australian Research Council (AU)
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US)
- Ocean University of China (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Wenju
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-01-19
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 111-116
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W1977699466
- Cited by
- 2,198
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 124 · 2025: 200 · 2024: 160 · 2023: 166 · 2022: 184 · 2021: 238 · 2020: 227 · 2019: 214 · 2018: 214 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 133 · 2015: 118 · 2014: 46
- FWCI
- 128.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- handle.unsw.edu.au
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-nd
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- UNSWorks (UNSW Sydney) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion)
- UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I022841/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- extreme El Niño, global warming, atmospheric convection, climate change projections, CMIP3, CMIP5, perturbed physics ensemble, 1997-1998 El Niño, 1982-1983 El Niño
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