Global warming and changes in drought
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There are numerous types of droughts: agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological.
“First, there are numerous types of droughts: agricultural, metrological, and hydrological.23”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
One study highlighted that the opposing drought results arose partly because each study relied on a different precipitation dataset.
“One study 23 further highlighted the disparate results by pointing out (among other reasons) that each study relied on a different precipitation dataset.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
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BackgroundWill drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?
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BackgroundMethodInfluentialA first assessment of the impact of the extreme 2018 summer drought on Central European forests
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Self-citationLarger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide
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BackgroundResultMultifaceted characteristics of dryland aridity changes in a warming world
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“Global warming from natural and anthropogenic factors has accelerated the hydrological cycle, resulting in more extremes, including drought, and a strong tendency of the wet areas getting wetter and dry areas getting drier (Dai, 2011; Held & Soden, 2006; Seager et al., 2010; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundDrivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests
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Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe
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“It is well documented that following the peak development of El Niño during boreal winter the tropical North Atlantic Ocean becomes anomalously warm during the subsequent boreal spring and early summer (Huang, 2004; Klein et al., 1999; Trenberth et al., 2014); similarly, the tropical North Atlantic Ocean tends to cool…”
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Global water scarcity including surface water quality and expansions of clean water technologies
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“…et al., 2014) and geology (Stoelzle et al., 2014; Kumar et al., 2016) on drought severity; drought monitoring and forecasting (Sheffield et al., 2014; Trambauer et al., 2015); and the effects of climate change on drought (Prudhomme et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Wanders et al., 2015).”
Self-citationDrought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
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“Nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that evapotranspiration plays a major role in the generation of droughts in the warmer world (4, 17).”
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Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China
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“Furthermore, a few recent studies have claimed that the drought indices provide better estimates of the true global drought trend when using the PM evapotranspiration framework because of its more comprehensive physics (Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Contrasting responses of water use efficiency to drought across global terrestrial ecosystems
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“Climate warming causes an increase in atmospheric water demand and terrestrial evapotranspiration (Greve et al., 2014; Novick et al., 2016; Trenberth et al., 2014; Will, Wilson, Zou, & Hennessey, 2013), which may profoundly change the soil water resources available for vegetation growth.”
BackgroundRapid responses of plants to temperature changes
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“Indeed, attempts to evaluate changes in drought over the instrumental record have yielded conflicting results, with contradictions attributable at least in part to discrepancies in the data used, as well as to the selection of the comparison period (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
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“Nevertheless, given the projected climate warming in the 21st century and the forcing factor of climate change, drought is likely to set in more quickly, be more intense and last longer (Cook et al., 2015; Dai, 2011, 2013; Shef fi eld & Wood, 2008; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMethodThe biggest drought events in Europe from 1950 to 2012
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Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers
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Recent advances in photocatalytic treatment of pollutants in aqueous media
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Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
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Self-citationRETRACTED ARTICLE: Warming accelerates global drought severity
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“45 The results of global studies analyzing the effect of warming processes on drought severity differ in 46 the magnitude of the drought trends and in their spatial patterns as a consequence of differences in 47 the forcing precipitation data sets used (Trenberth et al., 2014), the models used to estimate ETo and 48 t…”
MethodClimate-resilient strategies for sustainable management of water resources and agriculture
Srivastav, A. L., Dhyani, R., Ranjan, M., Madhav, S., & Sillanpää, M. E. T. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14332-4 · Cited by 392 · see citing works
“It is expected that CC can alter the hydrological as well as energy cycles of the earth due to increased atmospheric temperature and further aggravate water-related sustainability of agricultural production (Stewart et al. 2004; Seneviratne et al. 2010; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundClimate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils
Schlaepfer, D. R., Bradford, J. B., Lauenroth, W. K., Munson, S. M., Tietjen, B., Hall, S. A., Wilson, S. D., Duniway, M. C., Jia, G., Pyke, D. A., et al. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms14196 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
“Model projections largely agree, however, that drylands will likely continue to expand during the twenty first century 1–3, 5, 10 due to This uncertainty is especially complicated for soil moisture availability, which is dictated by the combination of weather, vegetation, soil and landscape…”
InfluentialDrought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought
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“…change has been and will likely be causing a significant increase in the severity and frequency of drought events (IPCC, 2021; Spinoni et al., 2018; Trenberth et al., 2014) with strong repercussions on ecosystem processes and services (Bastos et al., 2020; Ciais et al., 2005; Feeley et al., 2020;…”
BackgroundThe Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century
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“…is assumed to be zero, while the net energy transfer to the ocean basins is assumed to be 0.6Wm22 with an uncertainty of 0.4Wm22, based upon recent estimates of ocean heat storage from the Argo array [Willis et al. 2009; Lyman et al. 2010; see Trenberth et al. (2014b) for a thorough discussion].”
BackgroundSelf-citationRepresenting the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models
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“Although projections of future droughts vary between models and also largely depend on the methodology and baseline periods chosen (Trenberth and Dai 2014), an increase in extreme drought conditions around the Mediterranean, Northern Africa and the Middle East is consistently projected across a variety of studies (IPC…”
Having the right neighbors: how tree species diversity modulates drought impacts on forests
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Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health
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“Over the past 50 years, drought frequency and intensity have increased with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns for some parts of the globe (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundDrought Stress in Plants: Causes, Consequences, and Tolerance
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Root Response to Drought Stress in Rice (Oryza sativa L.)
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“The frequency, severity, and long-term trends of global drought remain contentious [17,18], yet the incidence and extremity of drought have been increasing globally, such as in the Mediterranean [19], Central China [20], and West Africa [21].”
BackgroundHuman and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought
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“As there is a strong linkage between climate and the hydrological cycle, warming can also enhance drought (Wrona et al., 2006; Trenberth et al., 2014) with strong implications for water level and salinity in lakes in arid and semi-arid climates (Wantzen et al.”
BackgroundMethodology of Drought Stress Research: Experimental Setup and Physiological Characterization
Osmolovskaya, N., Shumilina, J., Kim, A., Didio, A., Grishina, T., Bilova, T. E., Keltsieva, O. A., Zhukov, V. A., Tikhonovich, I. A., Tarakhovskaya, E., et al. (2018) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms19124089 · Cited by 355 · see citing works
“Due to oncoming climate changes, the frequency and duration of drought periods will increase, making this factor one of the most important threats of the current century [8,9].”
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“Drought-induced economic losses were estimated to be about 29 billion dollars during 2005 to 2015, and it is predicted to become more persistent and extensive in the coming decades [2,3].”
BackgroundGlobal drought trends and future projections
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Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda
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Soil Constraints in an Arid Environment—Challenges, Prospects, and Implications
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“…may increase temperature (about 2-4°C globally) and frequency and severity of extreme droughts, elevate evapotranspiration (Stocker et al. 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014), result in more frequent and intense precipitation and flooding in temperate regions (Taylor et al. 2013), and even prolong…”
BackgroundClimate risk: The price of drought
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- Authors
- Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Trenberth, Kevin E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2013-12-20
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17-22
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2108886061
- Cited by
- 3,382
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming
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