The DOI matches its Crossref record; 33 of the 33 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio
Open accessAbstract
Quantitative assessment of modeling and forecasting of continuous quantities uses a variety of approaches. We review existing literature describing metrics for forecast accuracy and bias, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. Of these accuracy metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is one of the most common across many fields and has been widely applied in recent space science literature and we highlight the benefits and drawbacks of MAPE and proposed alternatives. We then introduce the log accuracy ratio and derive from it two metrics: the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias. Robust methods for estimating the spread of a multiplicative linear model using the log accuracy ratio are also presented. The developed metrics are shown to be easy to interpret, robust, and to mitigate the key drawbacks of their more widely used counterparts based on relative errors and percentage errors. Their use is illustrated with radiation belt electron flux modeling examples.
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Cites
Another look at measures of forecast accuracy
Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001 · Cited by 5,757
On the Theory of Scales of Measurement
Stevens, S. S. (1946) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.103.2684.677 · Cited by 4,761 · cited 2×
“We also note that unless the data used are positive-valued ratio-level data (having a meaningful, nonarbitrary zero point) (Sheskin, 2007; Stevens, 1946), the APE has limited meaning (Hyndman & Anathasopoulos, 2014).”
BackgroundForecasting principles and practice
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) · Cited by 4,405
The Influence Curve and its Role in Robust Estimation
Hampel, F. R. (1974) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1974.10482962 · Cited by 2,706
Alternatives to the Median Absolute Deviation
Rousseeuw, P. J., & Croux, C. (1993) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1993.10476408 · Cited by 1,949
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
Briggs, W. (. (2007) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2007.s163 · Cited by 1,531
Alternatives to the Median Absolute Deviation
Rousseeuw, P. J., & Croux, C. (1993) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2291267 · Cited by 1,466
Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
(2011) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119960003 · Cited by 1,267
Science Objectives and Rationale for the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission
Mauk, B. H., Fox, N. J., Kanekal, S. G., Kessel, R. L., Sibeck, D. G., & Ukhorskiy, A. (2013) · Space Science Reviews · doi:10.1007/s11214-012-9908-y · Cited by 1,055
Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns
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Cited by
Botchkarev, A. (2019) · Interdisciplinary Journal of Information, Knowledge, and Management · doi:10.28945/4184 · Cited by 616
Pahlevan, N., Mangin, A., Balasubramanian, S. V., Smith, B., Alikas, K., Arai, K., Barbosa, C., Bélanger, S., Binding, C., Bresciani, M., et al. (2021) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2021.112366 · Cited by 369
Wojtyniak, J., Selzer, D., Schwab, M., & Lehr, T. (2021) · Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1002/cpt.2111 · Cited by 38
Assessing City-Wide Pharmaceutical Emissions to Wastewater via Modelling and Passive Sampling
Zillien, C., Groenveld, T., Schut, O., Beeltje, H., Blanco-Ania, D., Posthuma, L., Roex, E., & Ragas, A. (2024) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2024.108524 · Cited by 13
Metadata
- Authors
- Morley, S. K., Brito, T. V., & Welling, D. T.
- Venue
- Space Weather
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-01
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 69-88
- ISSN
- 1542-7390 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2781763657
- Cited by
- 313
- References
- 33
- FWCI
- 17.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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