Predictive modeling
Open accessAbstract
Predictive modeling is a technique to predict the location of archaeological sites in uninvestigated areas that has been used since the 1970s to aid spatial planning, for example, in cultural resource management. Predictive modeling is also used to develop and test scientific models of human locational behavior, as it is based on either statistical extrapolation of known archaeological data or explanatory models of site location preference. In practice, a number of methods can be used in predictive modeling, and the resulting maps of predicted site density can vary in accuracy. The main difficulties in producing accurate predictive models are coupled with the resolution and representativeness of the archaeological and nonarchaeological datasets used, the theoretical frameworks underlying the models, and the lack of model testing. Nonetheless, predictive models are very useful to provide basic protection to areas of high sensitivity, and can save costs for archaeological investigations.
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Cites
Spatial Technology and Archaeology
Wheatley, D., & Gillings, M. (2002) · Taylor & Francis eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203302392 · Cited by 429 · see citing works
Integrating Archaeological Theory and Predictive Modeling: a Live Report from the Scene
Verhagen, P., & Whitley, T. G. (2012) · Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory · doi:10.1007/s10816-011-9102-7 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Self-citationPredictive Models for Archaeological Resource Location
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1. Archaeological prediction and risk management
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Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Judge J. W., 1988, Quantifying the Present and Predicting the Past: Theory, Method and Application of Archaeological Predictive Modelling
- Verhagen P., 2008, Layers of Perception. Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology (CAA), Berlin, Germany, April 2–6, 2007. Kolloquien zur Vor‐ und Frühgeschichte, Vol. 10, 285
- Hudak G. J., 2002, Mn/Model Final Report 2002: A Predictive Model of Precontact Archaeological Site Location for the State of Minnesota
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- Authors
- Verhagen, P.
- Affiliations
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Verhagen, Philip
- Venue
- The Encyclopedia of Archaeological Sciences
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-12-05
- Pages
- 1-3
- OpenAlex
- W4249235227
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 3
- Type
- reference entry
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Wiley eBooks (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Archaeological Research and Protection
- Social Sciences › Cultural Studies › Archaeology and Cultural Heritage
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Geophysical Methods and Applications
- Keywords
- predictive modeling, archaeological site location, cultural resource management, spatial planning, model testing
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