Predicting participation, early onset and later persistence in officially recorded offending

Abstract

Data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 London males, were analysed to identify predictors of participation (prevalence) in officially recorded offending between ages 10 and 20 years; of early onset (between ages 10 and 13 years) vs later onset of offending (between ages 14 and 20 years); and of persistence vs desistance of offending in adulthood (between ages 21 and 32 years) to investigate whether the same or different variables predicted these different aspects of criminal involvement. Generally, the three crime outcomes were predicted by different variables measured in childhood. Early antisocial behaviour, interaction with antisocial others, temperament (daring and low nervousness), low academic skills (school attainment), poor parental child‐rearing practices and a low level of commitment to the family were independent predictors of participation in offending. In contrast, an early onset of offending was predicted particularly by low paternal involve‐ment with the boy in leisure activities and was negatively related to interaction with antisocial others (parents and siblings). Persistence in crime between ages 21 and 32 years was predicted by low paternal involvement with the boy in leisure activities, a low degree of commitment to school and low verbal IQ at ages 8–10 years. It was not predicted by self‐reported delinquent involvement at age 18, but it was pre‐dicted by heavy drinking and unemployment in the teenage years. The data show the utility of considering different aspects of the ‘criminal career’ separately in seeking to understand and predict crime. Implications of the findings for criminological theories and interventions are discussed.