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Development of a novel frailty index to predict mortality in patients with end‐stage liver disease
Open accessAbstract
Cirrhosis is characterized by muscle wasting, malnutrition, and functional decline that confer excess mortality not well quantified by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Sodium (MELDNa) score. We aimed to develop a frailty index to capture these extrahepatic complications of cirrhosis and enhance mortality prediction in patients with cirrhosis. Consecutive outpatients listed for liver transplantation at a single transplant center without MELD exceptions were assessed with candidate frailty measures. Best subset selection analyses with Cox regression identified subsets of frailty measures that predicted waitlist mortality (=death or delisting because of sickness). We selected the frailty index by balancing statistical accuracy with clinical utility. The net reclassification index (NRI) evaluated the %patients correctly reclassified by adding the frailty index to MELDNa. Included were 536 patients with cirrhosis with median MELDNa of 18. One hundred seven (20%) died/were delisted. The final frailty index consisted of: grip strength, chair stands, and balance. The ability of MELDNa and the frailty index to correctly rank patients according to their 3-month waitlist mortality risk (i.e., concordance-statistic) was 0.80 and 0.76, respectively, but 0.82 for MELDNa+frailty index together. Compared with MELDNa alone, MELDNa+frailty index correctly reclassified 16% of deaths/delistings (P = 0.005) and 3% of nondeaths/delistings (P = 0.17) with a total NRI of 19% (P < 0.001). Compared to those with robust frailty index scores (<20th percentile), cirrhotics with poor frailty index scores (>80th percentile) were more impaired by gait speed, difficulty with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, exhaustion, and low physical activity (P < 0.001 for each). CONCLUSION: Our frailty index for patients with cirrhosis, comprised of three performance-based metrics, has construct validity for the concept of frailty and improves risk prediction of waitlist mortality over MELDNa alone. (Hepatology 2017;66:564-574).
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“Finally, malnutrition [105], frailty [106, 107] and especially sarcopenia [108, 109, 110, 111] have become increasingly important in patients with advanced chronic liver disease and should be evaluated and treated in each patient.”
From Current treatment of non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (2022) · cites this paper as [106]
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Cites
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“The Fried score is too complex and timeconsuming for generalized use in the field of transplantation, and there is evidence that simplified scores can be developed (eg, Liver Frailty Index for the cirrhotic population).(8,9) The authors should lead the kidney transplant community in these efforts.”
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Hu, J., Zhang, X., & Pei, W. (2025) · Digestive Diseases and Sciences · doi:10.1007/s10620-025-09357-5
“For instance, Lai et al. developed the Frailty Index, a validated tool for prognostication in cirrhosis using direct performance-based tests [2].”
Capturing frailty in cirrhosis: Bridging disciplinary gaps, clinical decision-making, and research
Tanaka, T., & Axelrod, D. (2025) · Liver Transplantation · doi:10.1097/lvt.0000000000000738
Valenzuela, C. S. M., Gallego, J., Urios, A., Correa‐Ghisays, P., Tabarés‐Seisdedos, R., & Montoliú, C. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0333029
“[56] developed a liver-specific frailty index in patients with liver disease, which include three performance-based tests of physical frailty: grip strength, chair stands, and balance testing.”
Sharma, A. N., Usman, L., Lai, J. C., & Jutras, G. (2026) · Transplantation Proceedings · doi:10.1016/j.transproceed.2026.05.023
Self-citationFrailty in early HCC transplant candidates: It’s not only about the tumor
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Orange, S. T., Hallsworth, K., Brown, M. C., & Reeves, H. L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.19914843
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Orange, S. T., Hallsworth, K., Brown, M. C., & Reeves, H. L. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.19914849
2025: The Current State of Functional Assessment in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation
Bernstein, D. A., & Kappus, M. R. (2025) · Current Transplantation Reports · doi:10.1007/s40472-025-00493-5
“…and after transplant, of grip strength (an average of three measurements using a hand dynamometer), timed chair stands (number of seconds to complete five chair stands), and balance testing (number of seconds a patient can remain balanced in side-to-side, semi-tandem, and tandem positions) [68].”
Pashayee-Khamene, F., Hekmatdoost, A., Haidari, F., Anushiravani, A., Hatami, B., Sadeghi, A., Engali, K. A., & Helli, B. (2025) · Food Science & Nutrition · doi:10.1002/fsn3.71397
“Given that the LFI was specifically designed for cirrhotic patients, it was used as the reference tool for diagnosing frailty (Lai et al. 2017).”
Candidate Evaluation for Liver Transplantation
Aceituno, L., Seetahal, V., & Tsien, C. D. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-07072-2_3
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Evaluation and management of primary sclerosing cholangitis patients awaiting liver transplantation
Frolkis, A. D., Nayagam, J. S., Parente, A., Seager, M. J., Sadler, M. D., Montaño‐Loza, A. J., & Joshi, D. (2026) · JHEP Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jhepr.2026.101748
Li, G., Wang, Y., Wang, K., & Wang, K. (2026) · International Journal of Nursing Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.ijnss.2026.02.001
“Our results are consistent with a survey by Lai et al., which found a 25 % prevalence of frailty among 1,044 patients with cirrhosis [36].”
InfluentialSilva, D. E. S., Boulhosa, R. S. S. B., Arruda, M. R., Batista, A. C. V., LYRA, A. C., de Oliveira, L. P. M., & de Jesus, R. P. (2026) · Nutrition · doi:10.1016/j.nut.2026.113143
The Risk of Risk Stratification in Liver Transplant
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Prognostic Significance of Frailty in Liver Cirrhosis Patients: A Prospective Single-Center Study
Mıldanoğlu, M. M., Akpınar, A., Koçhan, K., Bilici, A. E., Keskin, E. B., & Şentürk, H. (2026) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm15051943
Metadata
- Authors
- Lai, J. C., Covinsky, K. E., Dodge, J. L., Boscardin, W. J., Segev, D. L., Roberts, J. P., & Feng, S.
- Affiliations
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lai, Jennifer C.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Hepatology
- Published
- 2017-06-28
- Volume
- 66
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 564-574
- ISSN
- 0270-9139 (ISSN-L)
- 1527-3350
- PMC
- PMC5519430
- OpenAlex
- W2606209221
- Cited by
- 556
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 75 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 71 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 69 · 2020: 60 · 2019: 59 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 10
- FWCI
- 27.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Hepatology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- American College of Gastroenterology (K23AG048337, P30 DK026743, P30AG044281)
- National Institutes of Health
- University of California, San Francisco (P30 AG044281, P30DK026743)
- National Institute on Aging (K23AG048337, R01AG042504, R03AG045072, P30AG044281)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (K24DK101828, P30DK026743)
- Liver Center, University of California, San Francisco (P30 DK026743, DK026743)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Liver Disease and Transplantation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Frailty in Older Adults
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
- Keywords
- frailty index, end-stage liver disease, liver cirrhosis, waitlist mortality, MELD-Na, liver transplantation, mortality prediction, grip strength, chair stand, balance, net reclassification improvement, instrumental activities of daily living, walking speed, exhaustion, physical activity
- MeSH terms
- Activities of Daily Living, Cause of Death, Disability Evaluation, Female, Humans, Liver Cirrhosis, Male, Middle Aged, Physical Fitness, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Waiting Lists, Reproducibility of Results, Cohort Studies, Survival Rate, Liver Transplantation, Databases, Factual, Risk Assessment, End Stage Liver Disease
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