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The Role of Forts in the Local Market System in the Lower Rhine: Towards a Method of Multiple Hypothesis Testing Through Comparative Modelling

Weaverdyck, Eli J. S.·2019·Computational Social Sciences
DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-04576-0_9
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Abstract

This paper analyses rural settlement patterns in the Lower Rhine frontier zone to elucidate the role of forts in the rural economy. Von Thünen’s model of rural marketing suggests that market centres attract intensive cultivation, making them identifiable through spatial analysis of rural settlements. Environmental factors that influenced production capacity, however, can also be expected to exert a strong influence on settlement location, so a multivariate method of spatial analysis is necessary. Using a process of comparative modelling with logistic regression analysis, I test the hypotheses that rural settlements responded to the location of market centres, both civilian and military. I use univariate analysis of settlement territories to identify influential local environmental factors and combine these into a logistic regression model. Then I add a market potential (MP) variable that quantifies the accessibility of marketing opportunities from any location within a market system to see if this factor also shaped settlement patterns. Finally, I vary the centres included in the MP variable to determine whether rural settlements responded to the locations of forts in addition to civilian centres. I find that forts did not generally attract settlements and conclude that smallholders sold their produce primarily in civilian market places.

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  • The military occupation and the fortifications along the river Rhine involved a decentralized supply of livestock and people through local crop cultivation and extensive agricultural utilization.

    “The military occupation and the fortifications along the river Rhine involved a decentralized supply of livestock and people through local crop cultivation and extensive agricultural utilization (Weaverdyck 2019).”

    From From landscape affordances to landscape connectivity: contextualizing an archaeology of human ecology (2020) · cites this paper as Weaverdyck 2019

    Section 9.6 says the army spurred agricultural intensification and surplus production, while exchange took place in civilian market centres rather than forts. Section 9.5.2 discusses changes in livestock production and cereals that could have been locally grown, but does not establish local crop cultivation as a definite means of supplying both livestock and people. The claim also turns agricultural intensification into the broader assertion of extensive agricultural utilization. (LLM, conf=0.82)

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Metadata

Authors
Weaverdyck, E. J. S.
Venue
Computational Social Sciences
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Published
2019
Pages
165-190
ISSN
  • 2509-9574
  • 2509-9582
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-04576-0_9
Cited by
8
References
1
Language
en
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