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Predictive modeling for targeted archaeological survey of arsacid period sites in the iranian borderland region of the araxes river valley

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Wang, Jiayue, Soroush, Mehrnoush, Maziar, Sepideh, Khazraee, Emad·2026·Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory
DOI 10.1007/s10816-025-09733-5
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Abstract

We have applied predictive modeling to archaeological sites, datable to the Arsacid period (ca. 3rd c. BCE–3rd c. CE), in the southern side of the Araxes River valley, in modern day Iran. Araxes River valley is a contested borderland between Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Systematic fieldwork has been historically limited by geopolitical tensions. The only systematic survey in the region and two salvage surveys have yielded a large number of sites that could belong to the Arsacid period—with varying levels of certainty—a period often undermined by scholarly attention to the subsequent Sasanian period (ca. 3rd–7th c. CE). We use this data as a training dataset to specify areas with high probability of finding more Arsacid period sites for future targeted surveys. Our paper follows previous research which has emphasized using machine learning approaches for archaeological predictive modeling. Acknowledging the inevitable oversight of social factors involved in settlement distribution, our statistical models produce probability of finding Arsacid period sites while also offering some insight into the physical attributes of settlement positioning in the Arsacid period. We tested several common machine learning (ML) models and suggested the suitability of Random Forest models for archaeological predictive modeling. We have applied Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to ensure component independence in modeling. Finally, we have investigated various theories regarding working with a subselection of principal components (PCs). Our study recommends using all PCAs, especially when the number of predictors does not create computational challenges. We support the argument made by Kvamme (2023) that lower PCs are particularly relevant for archaeological predictive modeling, but, we disagree with using them without other PCs.

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Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. Abedi, A., Shahidi, H. K., Chataigner, C., Niknami, K., Eskandari, N., Kazempour, M., Pirmohammadi, A., Hoseinzadeh, J., & Ebrahimi, G. (2014). Excavation at Kul Tepe (Hadishahr), North-Western Iran, 2010: First preliminary report. Ancient near Eastern Studies, 51, 33–165. https://doi.org/10.2143/ANES.SI.0.3038717 · DOI
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  3. Aqalari, B., & Dehpahlevan, M. (2011). Cultural characteristics of North-Western Iran during Parthian period with a view to findings of the second season of explorations in the old mound of Pāsgāh Tappeh Si. Journal of Archaeological Studies, 3(1), 15–43.
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  5. Kohler, T. A. (1988). Predictive locational modelling: History and current practice. In W. L. Judge & L. Sebastian (Eds.), Quantifying the present and predicting the past: Theory, method and application of archaeological predictive modeling (pp. 19–59). US Bureau of Land Management, Denver, CO.
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  8. Parikh, S. J., & James, B. R. (2012). Soil: The foundation of agriculture. Nature Education Knowledge, 3(10), 2.
  9. Santhanam, R., Uzir, N., Raman, S., & Banerjee, S. (2016). Experimenting XGBoost algorithm for prediction and classification of different datasets. International Journal of Control Theory and Applications, 9(40), 651–662. https://serialsjournals.com/index.php?route=product/product/volumearticle&issue_id=291&product_id=365
  10. Ur, J. A., & Alizadeh, K. (2013). The Sasanian colonization of the Mughan Steppe, Ardebil Province, Northwestern Iran. Journal of Iranian Archaeology, 4, 98–110.
  11. Zalaghi, A., Maziar, S., Aghalari, B., Mashkour, M., & Jayezi, M. (2021). Kohne Tepesi: A Kura-Araxes and Parthian Settlement in the Araxes River Basin, Northwest Iran. Iran National Museum. https://doi.org/10.22034/JINM.2021.253201 · DOI

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Related

Authors
Wang, J., Soroush, M., Maziar, S., & Khazraee, E.
Affiliations
  • Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
  • University of Chicago (US)
Venue
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2025-08-25
Volume
33
Issue
1
ISSN
  • 1072-5369 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-7764
DOI
10.1007/s10816-025-09733-5
OpenAlex
W4413631074
Cited by
3
References
43
Citations by year
2026: 3
FWCI
4.81
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
ReCor Medical
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Archaeological Research and Protection
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Geophysical Methods and Applications
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Image Processing and 3D Reconstruction
Keywords
predictive modeling, archaeological site prediction, settlement distribution, principal component analysis, random forest, Sasanian period

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