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Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.

Rice, Marnie E., Harris, Grant T.·2005·Law and Human Behavior

DOI 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7

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Abstract

In order to facilitate comparisons across follow-up studies that have used different measures of effect size, we provide a table of effect size equivalencies for the three most common measures: ROC area (AUC), Cohen's d, and r. We outline why AUC is the preferred measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology or psychiatry, and we urge researchers and practitioners to use numbers rather than verbal labels to characterize effect sizes.

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BackgroundMethodInfluential
Validity of the youth assessment and screening instrument: A juvenile justice tool incorporating risks, needs, and strengths.
Jones, N. J., Brown, S. L., ROBINSON, D. H., & Frey, D. (2016) · Law and Human Behavior · doi:10.1037/lhb0000170 · Cited by 47
Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) with Indigenous and Caucasian female and male adolescents on probation.
Muir, N. M., Viljoen, J. L., Jonnson, M. R., Cochrane, D. M., & Rogers, B. J. (2020) · Psychological Assessment · doi:10.1037/pas0000816 · Cited by 41
Post-traumatic stress disorder associated with life-threatening motor vehicle collisions in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys
Stein, D. J., Karam, E. G., Shahly, V., Hill, E. D., King, A., Petukhova, M., Atwoli, L., Bromet, E. J., Florescu, S., Haro, J. M., et al. (2016) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-016-0957-8 · Cited by 40
“1), all of which represent intermediate levels of classification accuracy [35].”
Background
Reliability and validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in the assessment of risk for institutional violence: A cautionary note on DeMatteo et al. (2020).
Olver, M., Stockdale, K. C., Neumann, C., Hare, R., Mokros, A., Baskin-Sommers, A., Brand, E., Folino, J., Gacono, C., Gray, N., et al. (2020) · Psychology, public policy and law · doi:10.1037/law0000256 · Cited by 40
“We converted the ESs to d via a direct conversion from AUC per Rice and Harris (2005) or from rpb adjusting for base rates when this information was available.”
Method
Modifiable Risk Factors Discriminate Memory Trajectories in Non-Demented Aging: Precision Factors and Targets for Promoting Healthier Brain Aging and Preventing Dementia
McFall, G. P., McDermott, K. L., & Dixon, R. A. (2019) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-180571 · Cited by 55
“8 or greater is considered a strong effect size [64].”
Background
A Meta-Analytic Review of Pretrial Research: Risk Assessment, Bond Type, and Interventions
Bechtel, K. A., Holsinger, A. M., Lowenkamp, C. T., & Warren, M. J. (2017) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2741635 · Cited by 40
Profiling head accelerations using triaxial accelerometery during ‘bodies in front’ training play: a preliminary study of the sport of rugby league
Doherty, C., Zhao, L., Ryan, J., Komaba, Y., Inomata, A., & Caulfield, B. (2017) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.clinbiomech.2017.01.007 · Cited by 40
The Predictive Validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for Multiple Adverse Outcomes in a Secure Psychiatric Inpatient Setting
O'Shea, L., Picchioni, M., & Dickens, G. (2016) · Assessment (Odessa, Fla.) · doi:10.1177/1073191115573301 · Cited by 40
“Rice and Harris (2005) report that AUC values of .556, .638, and .714, respectively, are equivalent to small (.2), moderate (.5), and large (.8) Cohen’s d values (Cohen, 1992), which are one of the most commonly reported measures of effect size (Kraemer & Kupfer, 2006; Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Causal inference for violence risk management and decision support in forensic psychiatry
Constantinou, A., Freestone, M., Marsh, W., & Coid, J. (2015) · Decision Support Systems · doi:10.1016/j.dss.2015.09.006 · Cited by 40
“This is because the AUC of ROC is the preferred§ measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology and psychiatry (Rice & Harris, 2005), and more than half of violence risk assessment validation studies report only the AUC (Singh, 2013).”
Background
Criterion validity of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) with inpatient adolescents.
Kovacs, S., & Sharp, C. (2014) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2014.06.019 · Cited by 40
Test Validity and Performance Validity: Considerations in Providing a Framework for Development of an Ability-Focused Neuropsychological Test Battery
Larrabee, G. J. (2014) · Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology · doi:10.1093/arclin/acu049 · Cited by 47
An Examination of Criminogenic Needs, Mental Health Concerns, and Recidivism in a Sample of Violent Young Offenders: Implications for Risk, Need, and Responsivity
Guebert, A. F., & Olver, M. (2014) · International Journal of Forensic Mental Health · doi:10.1080/14999013.2014.955220 · Cited by 40
“AUC magnitudes were interpreted using the Rice and Harris (2005) guidelines of small/low (AUC D .556), moderate/medium (AUC D .639), and large/high (AUC D .714).”
Method
A machine learning-based diagnostic model for children with autism spectrum disorders complicated with intellectual disability
Song, C., Jiang, Z., Hu, L.-F., Li, W., Liu, X., Wang, Y., Jin, W.-Y., & Zhu, Z.-W. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2022.993077 · Cited by 36
“proposed that AUC can be converted to effect sizes, such as Cohen’s d and Pearson’s rpb (50).”
Method
The Application of Machine Learning to a General Risk–Need Assessment Instrument in the Prediction of Criminal Recidivism
Ghasemi, M., Anvari, D., Atapour, M., Wormith, J. S., Stockdale, K. C., & Spiteri, R. J. (2020) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854820969753 · Cited by 55
“…selected recidivist will obtain a higher score than a randomly selected nonre-cidivist (Rice & Harris, 1995). we use the interpretive rubric of Rice and Harris (2005) in which the magnitude of AUC values is mapped to predictive effect sizes as follows: 0.55 to 0.63 (small/low), 0.64 to 0.70…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Risk Assessment in Juvenile and Young Adult Offenders: Predictive Validity of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV
Kleeven, A., Robbé, M. D. V., Mulder, E., & Popma, A. (2020) · Assessment (Odessa, Fla.) · doi:10.1177/1073191120959740 · Cited by 39
“AUC values between .56 and .64 are perceived as small, AUC values above .64 are perceived as medium, and AUC values above .71 are perceived as large (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Background
Age, risk assessment, and sanctioning: Overestimating the old, underestimating the young.
Monahan, J. T., Skeem, J. L., & Lowenkamp, C. T. (2017) · Law and Human Behavior · doi:10.1037/lhb0000233 · Cited by 58
The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START): A Prospective Study of Inpatient Behavior
Gray, N., Benson, R. D., Craig, R. L., Davies, H., Fitzgerald, S., Huckle, P., Maggs, R., Taylor, J., Trueman, M., Williams, T., et al. (2011) · doi:10.1080/14999013.2011.631692 · Cited by 39
“The Strength scale produced a large effect size (Rice & Harris, 2005 ).”
Background
Modeling Driver Risk Perception on City Roads Using Deep Learning
Ping, P., Yuan, S., Qin, W., Miyajima, C., & Takeda, K. (2018) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2018.2879887 · Cited by 49
“7 is considered to be very effective [40].”
Background
Criterion and construct validity of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) to measure depression in patients with cancer: The contribution of somatic items
Almeida, S., Camacho, M., Barahona-Corrêa, J. B., Oliveira, J., Lemos, R., da Silva, D. R., da Silva, J. A., Baptista, T., Grácio, J., & Oliveira-Maia, A. (2022) · International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.ijchp.2022.100350 · Cited by 38
A comparison of perceptual anticipation in combat sports between experts and non-experts: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Zhang, Z., Piras, A., Chen, C., Kong, B., & Wang, D.-X. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.961960 · Cited by 38
On prediction, refutation, and explanatory reach: A consideration of the Interpersonal Theory of Suicidal Behavior.
Joiner, T., Jeon, M. E., Lieberman, A., Janakiraman, R., Duffy, M., Gai, A. R., & Dougherty, S. P. (2021) · Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106453 · Cited by 38
Identifying Risk of Opioid Use Disorder for Patients Taking Opioid Medications with Deep Learning
Dong, X.-Y., Deng, J., Rashidian, S., Abell-Hart, K., Hou, W., Rosenthal, R., Saltz, M., Saltz, J., & Wang, F.-S. (2020) · J. Am. Medical Informatics Assoc. · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2010.04589 · Cited by 38
Applications of the Chinese version of the primary care PTSD screen for DSM-5 (PC-PTSD-5) for children
Li, J., Zhang, W., Chen, W., Yuan, H., Zhang, S., Tian, M., & Qu, Z. (2019) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2019.05.021 · Cited by 42
“The results of previous studies have indicated that criteria finding AUCs > 0.56 tend to have small effect sizes, while those with AUCs > 0.64 have medium, and those with AUCs > 0.71 have large effect sizes (Rice and Harris, 2005).”
ResultInfluential
Evaluation of the Functional Movement Screen and a Novel Basketball Mobility Test as an Injury Prediction Tool for Collegiate Basketball Players.
Bond, C., Dorman, J. C., Odney, T. O., Roggenbuck, S. J., Young, S. W., & Munce, T. (2017) · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research · doi:10.1519/jsc.0000000000001944 · Cited by 38
“556 corresponds to a negligible level of diagnostic accuracy (23).”
Background
Use of the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender Version and the Stable 2007 to Assess Dynamic Sexual Violence Risk in a Sample of Treated Sexual Offenders
Sowden, J. N., & Olver, M. (2017) · Psychological Assessment · doi:10.1037/pas0000345 · Cited by 38
Applying an Evidence-Based Assessment Model to Identify Students at Risk for Perceived Academic Problems following Concussion
Ransom, D., Burns, A., Youngstrom, E., Vaughan, C., Sady, M., & Gioia, G. (2016) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617716000916 · Cited by 38
“Benchmarks provided by Rice and Harris (2005) indicate that AUCs in the mid .50s are small and not clinically useful; AUCs in the mid .60s are medium in size and may provide some incremental clinical value, but are not sufficient in isolation; AUCs in the low to mid .70s reflect large, clinically…”
Method
Computerized Assessment of Pedophilic Sexual Interest Through Self-Report and Viewing Time
Mokros, A., Gebhard, M., Heinz, V., Marschall, R. W., Nitschke, J., Glasgow, D., Gress, C. L. Z., & Laws, D. (2013) · Sexual abuse. A Journal of Research and Treatment · doi:10.1177/1079063212454550 · Cited by 38
Criminal thinking as a mediator of the mental illness–prison violence relationship: A path analytic study and causal mediation analysis.
Walters, G. (2011) · Psychological Services · doi:10.1037/a0024684 · Cited by 38
How Nonrecidivism Affects Predictive Accuracy
Hilton, N., & Harris, G. T. (2009) · Journal of Interpersonal Violence · doi:10.1177/0886260508316478 · Cited by 38
Self-citation
The Social Information Processing Model in Child Physical Abuse and Neglect: A Meta-analytic Review
Camilo, C., Garrido, M. V., & Calheiros, M. M. (2020) · Child Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104666 · Cited by 37
A Feasibility Study Using a Machine Learning Suicide Risk Prediction Model Based on Open-Ended Interview Language in Adolescent Therapy Sessions
Cohen, J., Wright-Berryman, J. L., Rohlfs, L., Wright, D., Campbell, M., Gingrich, D., Santel, D., & Pestian, J. P. (2020) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph17218187 · Cited by 48
Multivariate Pattern Analysis of fMRI in Breast Cancer Survivors and Healthy Women
Hosseini, S. M. H., & Kesler, S. R. (2013) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617713001173 · Cited by 40
“Cognitive dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a common side effect of breast cancer (BC) chemotherapy (Ahles, 2012; Janelsins et al., 2011; Rodin & Ahles, 2012; Wefel, Saleeba, Buzdar, & Meyers, 2010; Wefel & Schagen, 2012).”
Background
Predicting institutional violence in offenders with intellectual disabilities: the predictive efficacy of the VRAG and the HCR-20.
Fitzgerald, S., Gray, N., Alexander, R., Bagshaw, R., Chesterman, P., Huckle, P., Jones, S. K., Taylor, J., Williams, T., & Snowden, R. (2013) · Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities · doi:10.1111/jar.12032 · Cited by 37
“The risk-management subscale was able to predict physical aggression with a small– medium effect size (Rice & Harris 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Predicting Probability of Response to Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors for Individual Patients With Ankylosing Spondylitis
Wang, R.-S., Dasgupta, A., & Ward, M. (2022) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.2312 · Cited by 36
Whistleblowing Allegations, Audit Fees, and Internal Control Deficiencies*
Kuang, Y., Lee, G., & Qin, B. (2020) · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12619 · Cited by 36

Authors: Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T.
Affiliations: Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care (CA)
Venue: Law and Human Behavior
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 2005-10
Volume: 29
Issue: 5
Pages: 615-620
ISSN: 0147-7307 (ISSN-L)
1573-661X
DOI: 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7
OpenAlex: W2060774914
Cited by: 1,608
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 60 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 151 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 137 · 2018: 112 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 64 · 2013: 58 · 2012: 51
FWCI: 11.55
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Law and Human Behavior (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
Keywords: effect size, Cohen's d, diagnostic accuracy, prediction accuracy, forensic psychology, follow-up study
MeSH terms: Forecasting, Humans, ROC Curve, Risk Assessment

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Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.

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