Cited by 1,608Meta-analysis and systematic reviewsStatistical Methods in EpidemiologyPsychology Research and Bibliometrics

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Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.

Rice, Marnie E., Harris, Grant T.·2005·Law and Human Behavior

DOI 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7

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Abstract

In order to facilitate comparisons across follow-up studies that have used different measures of effect size, we provide a table of effect size equivalencies for the three most common measures: ROC area (AUC), Cohen's d, and r. We outline why AUC is the preferred measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology or psychiatry, and we urge researchers and practitioners to use numbers rather than verbal labels to characterize effect sizes.

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Fokkema, M., & Strobl, C. (2020) · Psychological Methods · doi:10.1037/met0000256 · Cited by 38
Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?
Kebbell, M. (2019) · Psychology, Crime and Law · doi:10.1080/1068316x.2019.1597087 · Cited by 29
“An AUC of .56 can be considered small predictive validity, .64 medium predictive validity and .71 large predictive validity (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Background
Predictors of post-concussion symptom severity in a university-based concussion clinic
Houck, Z. M., Asken, B., Bauer, R., & Clugston, J. (2019) · Brain Injury · doi:10.1080/02699052.2019.1565897 · Cited by 29
“A previous study published the following cutoffs, which will be used in the current study, describing the relationships between AUC values and traditional conventions for Cohen’s d effect sizes (39): 0.”
Method
Diagnostic Efficiency of the CBCL Thought Problems and DSM-Oriented Psychotic Symptoms Scales for Pediatric Psychotic Symptoms
Salcedo, S., Rizvi, S. H., Freeman, L., Youngstrom, J., Findling, R., & Youngstrom, E. (2018) · European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-018-1140-1 · Cited by 29
“Guidelines by Rice and Harris [21] suggest that AUCs in the mid 0.50 s are considered small, mid 0.60 s are medium (and may provide incremental clinical value), low-to-mid 0.70 s are large (clinically useful), low 0.80 s are excellent, and high 0.80 s are exceptional under clinically rigorous studies, as well as highl…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Factors Predicting Desistance From Reoffending: A Validation Study of the SAPROF in Sexual Offenders
Yoon, D., Turner, D., Klein, V., Rettenberger, M., Eher, R., & Briken, P. (2018) · International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology · doi:10.1177/0306624x16664379 · Cited by 29
“According to the critical values proposed by several researchers (Cohen, 1992; Dahle, Schneider, & Ziethen, 2007; Rice & Harris, 2005; AUC ≥ .72 = large effect size; .64 ≤ AUC ≤ .71 = moderate; .56 < AUC < .64 = small), the results showed overall a rather small to moderate predictive accuracy of…”
Background
Screening for potential child maltreatment in parents of a newborn baby: The predictive validity of an Instrument for early identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN).
van der Put, C. E., Bouwmeester-Landweer, M. B. R., Landsmeer-Beker, E. A., Wit, J., Dekker, F., Kousemaker, N. P. J., & Baartman, H. E. M. (2017) · International Journal of Child Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2017.05.016 · Cited by 29
Risk and Protective Factors for Inpatient Aggression
Robbé, M. D. V., de Vogel, V., Wever, E. C., Douglas, K., & Nijman, H. (2016) · doi:10.1177/0093854816637889 · Cited by 29
Neurobiological Factors as Predictors of Prisoners’ Response to a Cognitive Skills Training
Cornet, L. J. M., van der Laan, P. H., Nijman, H., Tollenaar, N., & de Kogel, C. D. (2015) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2015.02.003 · Cited by 29
Assessing Protective Factors of Youth Who Sexually Offended in Singapore
Zeng, G., Chu, C., & Lee, Y. (2015) · Sexual abuse. A Journal of Research and Treatment · doi:10.1177/1079063214561684 · Cited by 29
“In general, AUCs of .56, .64, and .71 may be considered to be of small, medium, and large effect sizes, respectively (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Background
Specialization In and Within Sexual Offending in England and Wales
Howard, P., Barnett, G., & Mann, R. (2014) · Sexual abuse. A Journal of Research and Treatment · doi:10.1177/1079063213486934 · Cited by 29
“While no guidelines exist for what might be considered an acceptable C Index in criminal risk prediction, the similarity of this metric to AUC suggests that the advice of Rice and Harris (2005) can be copied over.”
Method
Crime Scene Behaviors Indicate Risk-Relevant Propensities of Child Molesters
Lehmann, R. J. B., Goodwill, A., Hanson, R. K., & Dahle, K. (2014) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854814521807 · Cited by 29
Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.
Lehmann, R. J. B., Goodwill, A., Gallasch-Nemitz, F., Biedermann, J., & Dahle, K. (2013) · Law and Human Behavior · doi:10.1037/lhb0000015 · Cited by 29
“For the prediction of previous sexual offenses and sexual recidivism, AUC was used as an effect size statistic for dichotomous outcome variables (Swets, Dawes, & Monahan, 2000) where AUCs of .56, .64, and .71 were considered as small, medium, and large (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Reducing Institutional Disorder: Using the Inmate Risk Assessment for Segregation Placement to Triage Treatment Services at the Front End of Prison Sentences
Labrecque, R., & Smith, P. (2019) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128717748946 · Cited by 29
“Even the lower limits of the CIs fall above the threshold for a large effect size according to Rice and Harris’ (2005) criteria, which suggests that there is a 95% probability that the population effect size of the RASP on these negative outcomes is large.”
Influential
Developing a clinical typology of dysfunctional anger.
Ahmed, A., Kingston, D. A., Digiuseppe, R., Bradford, J. M. W., & Seto, M. (2012) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2011.09.008 · Cited by 29
“Several effect size indicators were chosen based on the underlying properties of the statistic and the utility over other commonly used indicators when used with a particular statistical test (Rice and Harris, 2005).”
Method
Bidirectional associations between loneliness and problematic internet use: A meta-analytic review of longitudinal studies
Zhang, Y., Li, J., Zhang, M., Bote, A. I., & Jia, F. (2023) · Addictive Behaviors · doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2023.107916 · Cited by 35
Assessing protective factors in treated violent offenders: Associations with recidivism reduction and positive community outcomes.
Coupland, R., & Olver, M. (2020) · Psychological Assessment · doi:10.1037/pas0000807 · Cited by 28
On the validity of single tests, two-test combinations and the full Brief International Cognitive Assessment for Multiple Sclerosis (BICAMS) in detecting patients with cognitive impairment
Baetge, S., Filser, M., Renner, A., Ullrich, S., Lassek, C., & Penner, I. (2019) · Multiple Sclerosis · doi:10.1177/1352458519887897 · Cited by 28
Validity and Predictive Accuracy of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk in Criminal Forensic Evaluations
Abbiati, M., Azzola, A., Palix, J., Gasser, J., & Moulin, V. (2017) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854816677565 · Cited by 28
The Use of the State–Trait Anger Expression Inventory–II With Forensic Populations
Schamborg, S., Tully, R., & Browne, K. (2016) · International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology · doi:10.1177/0306624x15577932 · Cited by 28
“Second, predictive validity was measured using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) coefficient, which is the preferred measure of predictive accuracy in forensic samples (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Method
Does the LSI-R Have Utility for Sex Offenders?
Ragusa-Salerno, L. M., Ostermann, M., & Thomas, S. S. (2013) · doi:10.1177/0093854813481667 · Cited by 28
“A reviewer suggested using the AUC cutoffs established by Rice and Harris (2005), in which .556 indicates a small effect size, .639 indicates a moderate effect size, and .714 indicates a large effect size.”
BackgroundMethod
Allegiance or fidelity? A clarifying reply.
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (2010) · Clinical Psychology Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2850.2009.01197.x · Cited by 31
“…derived from Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCs) are preferred over correlation coefficients (Leistico, Salekin, deCoster, & Rogers, 2008; Rice & Harris, 1995, 2005), we analyzed areas under the ROC using standard conversions where required (Rice & Harris, 2005) instead of Pearson…”
InfluentialSelf-citation
Theoretical and practical issues for the measurement of protective factors
Cording, J. R., & Christofferson, S. B. B. (2017) · Aggression and Violent Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.avb.2016.12.007 · Cited by 28
Emotional Congruence With Children Is Associated With Sexual Deviancy in Sexual Offenders Against Children
Hermann, C. A., McPhail, I. V., Helmus, L. M., & Hanson, R. K. (2017) · International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology · doi:10.1177/0306624x15620830 · Cited by 28
“As a rough heuristic, an AUC of .56 corresponds to a small effect size, while .64 reflects a moderate effect, and .71 reflects a large effect size, as these values correspond to Cohen’s ds of .20, .50, and .80, when certain assumptions are satisfied (see Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Background
Sex-based thermal comfort zones and energy savings in spaces with joint operation of air conditioner and fan
Lyu, J., Shi, Y.-X., Du, H., & Lian, Z.-W. (2023) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2023.111002 · Cited by 27
Predicting adolescent depression and anxiety from multi-wave longitudinal data using machine learning
Hawes, M. T., Schwartz, H. A., Son, Y., & Klein, D. N. (2022) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291722003452 · Cited by 36
Psychometric Properties of the Primary Care PTSD Screen for DSM-5: Findings From Family Members of Chinese Healthcare Workers During the Outbreak of COVID-19
Cheng, P., Jasinski, N. E., Zheng, W., Yadava, A., Wang, L., Li, L., Xu, L., Zhou, Y., Zhang, L., & Li, W. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.695678 · Cited by 31
“71 is considered to have large effect sizes (33).”
Background
Integration of statistical models and ensemble machine learning algorithms (MLAs) for developing the novel hybrid groundwater potentiality models: a case study of semi-arid watershed in Saudi Arabia
Mallick, J., Talukdar, S., Alsubih, M., Almesfer, M. K., Shahfahad, Hoang, H. T., & Rahman, A. (2021) · Geocarto International · doi:10.1080/10106049.2021.1939439 · Cited by 27
“The area under curve (AUC) value more than 0.70 represents the good agreement between the ground truth and the predictive models (Rice and Harris 2005).”
BackgroundInfluential
Responsiveness of Objective vs. Clinical Balance Domain Outcomes for Exercise Intervention in Parkinson's Disease
Hasegawa, N., Shah, V., Harker, G., Carlson-Kuhta, P., Nutt, J., Lapidus, J., Jung, S.-H., Barlow, N., King, L. A., Horak, F., et al. (2020) · Frontiers in Neurology · doi:10.3389/fneur.2020.00940 · Cited by 27
“71 a high accuracy of the prediction for perceived change (36).”
Background
Use of a Patient Portal for Engaging Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Patterns and Prediction
Sun, R., Burke, L. E., Saul, M. I., Korytkowski, M. T., Li, D., & Sereika, S. M. (2019) · Diabetes Technology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1089/dia.2019.0074 · Cited by 29
The validity of risk assessment instruments for transition-age youth.
Vincent, G. M., Drawbridge, D. C., & Davis, M. (2018) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000366 · Cited by 30
Actuarial Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: The Psychometric Properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)
Rettenberger, M., Rice, M., Harris, G., & Eher, R. (2017) · Psychological Assessment · doi:10.1037/pas0000390 · Cited by 27
“…(e.g., Barbaree et al., 2001; Bartosh et al., 2003; Harris & Rice, 2003) and predominantly yielded indices that could be classified as a good predictive validity (i.e., area under curve [AUC] .71 derived from receiver operating characteristics [ROC]; for details see, e.g., Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSelf-citation

Authors: Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T.
Affiliations: Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care (CA)
Venue: Law and Human Behavior
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 2005-10
Volume: 29
Issue: 5
Pages: 615-620
ISSN: 0147-7307 (ISSN-L)
1573-661X
DOI: 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7
OpenAlex: W2060774914
Cited by: 1,608
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 60 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 151 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 137 · 2018: 112 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 64 · 2013: 58 · 2012: 51
FWCI: 11.55
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Law and Human Behavior (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
Keywords: effect size, Cohen's d, diagnostic accuracy, prediction accuracy, forensic psychology, follow-up study
MeSH terms: Forecasting, Humans, ROC Curve, Risk Assessment

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Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.

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