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Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.
Abstract
In order to facilitate comparisons across follow-up studies that have used different measures of effect size, we provide a table of effect size equivalencies for the three most common measures: ROC area (AUC), Cohen's d, and r. We outline why AUC is the preferred measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology or psychiatry, and we urge researchers and practitioners to use numbers rather than verbal labels to characterize effect sizes.
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“The magnitude of the effects of these risk domains ranged from small (i.e., r= 0.099 for “low IQ/learning difficulties”) to large (i.e., r= 0.553 for “having a negative school attitude”) based on the criteria of Rice and Harris (2005) for interpreting effect sizes.”
From Risk Factors for School Absenteeism and Dropout: A Meta-Analytic Review (2019) · cites this paper as Rice and Harris (2005)
In the citing paper
“The AUC of 0.62 is also a moderate effect size [14], but is less than that for deadly violence (but this difference was not statistically significant).”
From The Domestic Abuse, Stalking and Harassment and Honour-Based Violence (DASH) Risk Assessment Instrument in Predicting Deadly or Persistent Domestic Abuse (2025) · cites this paper as [14]
In the citing paper
“The AUC of 0.67 for deadly violence is regarded as a “moderate” effect size [14].”
From The Domestic Abuse, Stalking and Harassment and Honour-Based Violence (DASH) Risk Assessment Instrument in Predicting Deadly or Persistent Domestic Abuse (2025) · cites this paper as [14]
In the citing paper
“AUC values of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.71 indicate small, medium, and large effects (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
From Strategies for monitoring mentoring relationship quality to predict early program dropout (2022) · cites this paper as Rice & Harris, 2005
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“AUC also has a plain language interpretation because it is conceptually and mathematically similar to the common language effect size or CL ( McGraw & Wong, 1992; see also Delaney & Vargha, 2002).”
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“When interpreting predictive accuracy, Rice and Harris (2005) recommend using AUC in forensic psychology or psychiatry over other methods (e.g., regression), in part for ease of communication and comparison of results, but also to provide clear metrics of accuracy.”
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Ludwig, C., & Busnel, C. (2017) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-017-0604-3 · Cited by 23
Lee, S. C., & Hanson, R. K. (2017) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854817711477 · Cited by 35
“According to Rice and Harris (2005), AUCs of .56 would be considered small, .64 would be moderate, and .71 would be large.”
BackgroundField validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders
Jeandarme, I., Pouls, C., Laender, J. D., Oei, T., & Bogaerts, S. (2017) · doi:10.1080/1068316x.2016.1258467 · Cited by 23
“AUC values of .56 or above represent a small effects, .64 or above a moderate effect and .71 or above a large effect (Rice & Harris, 2005), although other authors promote more conservative interpretations with AUC below .60 indicating low accuracy, between .60 and .70 marginal accuracy, between .70…”
ResultA More Consistent Application of the RNR Model
Hamilton, Z. K., Campagna, M. F., Tollefsbol, E., van Wormer, J. G., & Barnoski, R. (2017) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854816678032 · Cited by 23
“Underlined figures indicate domains possessing moderate effect sizes (AUC > 0.63; see Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialDevelopment and Validation of a Disease-Specific Questionnaire for Basal Joint Arthritis
Noback, P., Lombardi, J. M., Seetharaman, M., Lee, D. H., Strauch, R., & Rosenwasser, M. (2016) · Journal of wrist surgery · doi:10.1055/s-0036-1593612 · Cited by 23
O'Shea, L., & Dickens, G. (2016) · Clinical Psychology Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/cpsp.12146 · Cited by 23
“AUC values were converted to Cohen’s d values according to the tables provided by Rice and Harris (2005); Cohen’s d values are a commonly used measure of effect size well suited to random effects models (Yang, et al., 2010).”
Edens, J., & Ruiz, M. (2009) · International Journal of Forensic Mental Health · doi:10.1080/14999010903358771 · Cited by 23
“These AUC values 1The VPI incorporates results from both ANT and AGG subscales in computing this index, thus resulting in nonindependent variables. are in a range that would be identified as “medium” based on Cohen’s rough guidelines (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
The Misuse of AUC: What High Impact Risk Assessment Gets Wrong
Kwegyir-Aggrey, K., Gerchick, M., Mohan, M., Horowitz, A., & Venkatasubramanian, S. (2023) · Conference on Fairness, Accountability and Transparency · doi:10.1145/3593013.3594100 · Cited by 22
“The report characterizes an AUC of .70 or higher as indicative of “a strong model fit,” referencing Rice and Harris [2005], using AUC to validate model performance at the population level, and also as a benchmark to validate performance across different racial groups.”
MethodLong Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend
Hanson, R. K., Lee, S. C., & Thornton, D. (2022) · Sexual abuse. A Journal of Research and Treatment · doi:10.1177/10790632221139166 · Cited by 22
“Following Cohen ’ s (1988) conventions for Cohen ’ s d, AUC values of .56, .64, and .71 are considered small, moderate, and large, respectively (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
Kundu, A., Fu, R., Grace, D., Logie, C. H., Abramovich, A., Baskerville, N. B., Yager, C., Schwartz, R. M., Mitsakakis, N., Planinac, L. C., et al. (2022) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2022.06.013 · Cited by 24
Prediction is Local: The Benefits of Risk Assessment Optimization
Hamilton, Z. K., Kigerl, A., & Kowalski, M. A. (2021) · Justice quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2021.1894215 · Cited by 22
“The AUC value magnitude is represented in four effect size ranges (see Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundInfluentialBraun, S. S., Roeser, R. W., & Mashburn, A. J. (2020) · Pilot and Feasibility Studies · doi:10.1186/s40814-020-00718-7 · Cited by 29
Czyz, E. K., Yap, J. R. T., King, C. A., & Nahum-Shani, I. B. (2020) · Assessment · doi:10.1177/1073191120939168 · Cited by 29
“Hence, risk factors were selected for further investigation if their model’s AUC was at least medium in magnitude (i.e., AUC ≥ 0.64; see Pencina et al., 2012; Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSpivak, B., Mcewan, T., Luebbers, S., & Ogloff, J. (2020) · Policing and Society: An International Journal of Research and Policy · doi:10.1080/10439463.2020.1757668 · Cited by 22
Huysse, J. L. V., Smith, K. N., Mammel, K. A., Prohaska, N., & Rienecke, R. (2020) · International Journal of Eating Disorders · doi:10.1002/eat.23248 · Cited by 22
“Most AUC values were in the 0.6–0.7 range, which can be considered similar to a moderate effect size (Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundInfluentialInformation leakage in the Response Time‐Based Concealed Information Test
Lukács, G., & Ulrich Ansorge, A. (2019) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.3565 · Cited by 26
“…between guilty and informed innocent conditions, we calculated AUCs (a diagnostic efficiency measure, for binary classification, that takes into account the distribution of all predictor values; Rice & Harris, 2005; Zou, O'Malley, & Mauri, 2007) for receiver operating characteristics (ROCs).”
MethodService Planning Instrument (SPIn)
Jones, N., & Robinson, D. (2017) · doi:10.1002/9781119184256.ch9 · Cited by 22
The Extra-Examination Time Granting Policy: A Reconceptualization
Cahan, S., Nirel, R., & Alkoby, M. (2016) · Journal of Psychoeducational Assessment · doi:10.1177/0734282915616537 · Cited by 16
“Because X is binary in this case, rXG is directly obtained from r d d n n n XG G G = + +( )2 1 2 2 1 2 n , (1) where dG (Cohen, 1988) is the standardized mean GS difference between the LD and non-LD groups (see Rice & Harris, 2005).”
BackgroundResting-state EEG microstate features for Alzheimer’s disease classification
Yang, X.-L., Fan, Z., Li, Z.-W., & Zhou, J.-Y. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0311958 · Cited by 21
Roy, K. C., Barman, J., & Biswas, B. (2024) · Groundwater for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1016/j.gsd.2024.101101 · Cited by 21
Are mental disorders associated with recidivism in men convicted of sexual offenses?
Biedermann, L., Eher, R., Rettenberger, M., Gaunersdorfer, K., & Turner, D. (2023) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/acps.13547 · Cited by 21
Rollo, S., Fraser, B. J., Seguin, N., Sampson, M., Lang, J. J., Tomkinson, G. R., & Tremblay, M. S. (2021) · Sports Medicine · doi:10.1007/s40279-021-01537-3 · Cited by 29
Ankle Sprains Risk Factors in a Sample of French Firefighters: A Preliminary Prospective Study.
Vaulerin, J., Chorin, F., Emile, M., d'Arripe-Longueville, F., & Colson, S. (2020) · Journal of sport rehabilitation · doi:10.1123/jsr.2018-0284 · Cited by 21
Hales, S., & Gannon, T. A. (2021) · Sexual Abuse · doi:10.1177/10790632211051682 · Cited by 30
“…between SAs and NSAs at better-than-chance level; area under the curve (AUC) = .77, p < .001, 95% CI [.68, .85], corresponding to a large Cohen’s d effect size of approximately 1.04 (Rice & Harris, 2005).2 Study 2 Study 2 was pre-registered as a replication of Study 1 with minor modifications.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialIdentifying epilepsy psychiatric comorbidities with machine learning
Glauser, T., Santel, D., Delbello, M., Faist, R., Toon, T., Clark, P. O., McCourt, R., Wissel, B. D., & Pestian, J. (2019) · Acta Neurologica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/ane.13216 · Cited by 21
Metadata
- Authors
- Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T.
- Affiliations
- Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care (CA)
- Venue
- Law and Human Behavior
- Published
- 2005-10
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 615-620
- ISSN
- 0147-7307 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-661X
- OpenAlex
- W2060774914
- Cited by
- 1,608
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 60 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 151 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 137 · 2018: 112 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 64 · 2013: 58 · 2012: 51
- FWCI
- 11.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Law and Human Behavior (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Keywords
- effect size, Cohen's d, diagnostic accuracy, prediction accuracy, forensic psychology, follow-up study
- MeSH terms
- Forecasting, Humans, ROC Curve, Risk Assessment
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