Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan
Open accessAbstract
Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981-2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann-Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen's slope quantification resulted in (0.025 °C) rise in temperature, (- 2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year-1. Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 °C, 1.2 °C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas. Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4.
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Water stress must be interpreted in relation to demand, because scarcity is shaped by reduced supply and by rising withdrawals from agriculture, industry, and urban growth.
“The literature also emphasizes that water stress must be interpreted in relation to demand, because scarcity is shaped not only by reduced supply but also by rising withdrawals from agriculture, industry, and urban growth (Ashraf et al., 2021).”
From Climate Security, Water Governance, and Resilience How Climate-Induced Water Stress and Migration Challenge State Capacity (2026) · cites this paper as Ashraf et al., 2021
The Results and discussion sections on on-farm adaptation and empirical modeling link declining rainfall and increased agricultural groundwater extraction to water scarcity in Balochistan; they also mention population growth as a non-climatic factor. Our copy does not establish rising industrial or urban water withdrawals, or explicitly frame water stress as a measure relative to demand. The claim therefore extends beyond what this source supports. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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Cites
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Cardinal Masters in Public Administration, L. U. T., & Zulqarnain, F. (2026) · International Journal of Scientific Interdisciplinary Research · doi:10.63125/28gejw48 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ashraf, M., Arshad, A., Patel, P. M., Khan, A., Qamar, H., Siti-Sundari, R., Ghani, M. U., Amin, A., & Babar, J. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Balochistan (PK)
- China Agricultural University (CN)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- TERI University (IN)
- Ayub Agriculture Research Institute (PK)
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Ashraf, Muhammad
- Arshad, Adnan
- Venue
- Natural Hazards
- Published
- 2021-07-23
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 2127-2151
- ISSN
- 0921-030X (ISSN-L)
- 1573-0840
- PMC
- PMC8300988
- OpenAlex
- W3183580065
- Cited by
- 55
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 4.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Natural Hazards (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lanzhou University Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Defense Medical College
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Agricultural risk and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- drought risk, climate change impacts, farmer livelihoods, coping strategies, adaptation strategies, agricultural vulnerability, rainfall decline, temperature rise, crop diversification, water management, climate-smart agriculture, drought early warning, Balochistan, rural households
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