License plate reader (LPR) police patrols in crime hot spots: an experimental evaluation in two adjacent jurisdictions
Open accessAbstract
This randomized controlled experiment tests whether license plate readers (LPR) deter crime generally, and automobile crime more specifically in crime hot spots. The limited intervention tested here reflects one current likely use of LPR at the time of this publication. We use a place-based block randomized experiment. Our subjects were 30 hot spots in two jurisdictions, 15 which were assigned to experimental conditions. The treatment involved targeted police patrols using a "sweep and sit" approach with license plate readers in these hot spots, also applying the Koper Curve timing principle. We examine effects of the intervention during and in a 30-day period post-intervention, controlling for pre-intervention levels of crime, seasonal factors, and jurisdiction. Our findings indicate that, when small numbers of LPR patrols are used in crime hot spots in the way we have tested them here, they do not seem to generate either a general or offense-specific deterrent effect. While we did not find significant findings of this intervention, a number of limitations and caveats to this study must be considered in conjunction with these findings. The authors suggest how already acquired LPRs might be used in ways that might increase their effectiveness in crime hot spots.
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For the LPR Patrols in Crime Hot Spots in Two Adjacent Jurisdictions (Lum et al., 2011), no threats to the integrity of the treatment were reported.
“No threats to the integrity of the treatment reported”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Lum et al. (2011)
The Experimental fidelity section reports that 20 assigned patrols were not completed in Fairfax County and 44 were not completed in Alexandria, partly because the experiment ended early for one officer. Although the authors conclude that implementation was generally proper, they do report these departures from the assigned treatment; the claim that no threats to treatment integrity were reported is therefore too categorical. Our copy provides no page number for this section. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOne study included both a large and small city in the designated study area (1.5%): Lum et al. (2011) evaluated the impact of license plate reader technology in crime hot spots in two adjacent jurisdictions located in Alexandria City and the eastern portion of Fairfax County (VA).
“One study included both a large and small city in the designated study area (1.5%): Lum et al. (2011) evaluated the impact of license plate reader technology in crime hot spots in two adjacent jurisdictions located in Alexandria City and the eastern portion of Fairfax County (VA).”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Lum et al. (2011)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn some included studies, prospective hot spot methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) and risk terrain modeling (RTM) were used to analyze and map crime concentrations.
“In some studies, prospective hot spot methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) and risk terrain modeling (RTM) were used to analyze and map crime concentrations (Carter et al., 2021;Gerell, 2016;Lum et al., 2011;Mazeika, 2014).”
From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Lum et al., 2011
Qualitative analyses of crime hot spots based on specific criteria or journey-after-crime analyses, as well as quantitative methods such as the Local Moran's I statistic or point-pattern analyses, were commonly employed in the included studies.
“Qualitative analyses of crime hot spots based on specific criteria or journey-after-crime analyses, as well as quantitative methods such as the Local Moran's I statistic or point-pattern analyses, were commonly employed (spatial and temporal analysis of crime or STAC) (Carter et al., 2021;Gerell, 2016;Lum et al., 2011;Mazeika, 2014).”
From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Lum et al., 2011
Despite the potential benefits of new technologies like LPR systems or predictive algorithms, officers were sometimes skeptical about adopting these new tools.
“Consequently, despite the potential benefits of new technologies like LPR systems (Lum et al., 2011) or predictive algorithms (Ratcliffe et al., 2020), officers were sometimes skeptical about adopting these new tools.”
From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Lum et al., 2011
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Hot spots policing and crime reduction: an update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 · Cited by 352 · see citing works
Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime
Braga, A. A., Turchan, B., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.1046 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing
Khalfa, R., & Hardyns, W. (2024) · Evaluation Review · doi:10.1177/0193841x231204588 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
- Authors
- Lum, C., Hibdon, J., Cave, B., Koper, C. S., & Merola, L.
- Affiliations
- George Mason University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lum, Cynthia
- Venue
- Journal of Experimental Criminology
- Published
- 2011-08-16
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 321-345
- ISSN
- 1572-8315 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-3750
- OpenAlex
- W2003373130
- Cited by
- 71
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 24.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Experimental Criminology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Keywords
- crime hotspots, police patrol, crime deterrence, targeted policing
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