General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: A randomized, controlled trial
Abstract
Many criminologists doubt that the dosage of uniformed police patrol causes any measurable difference in crime. This article reports a one-year randomized trial in Minneapolis of increases in patrol dosage at 55 of 110 crime “hot spots,” monitored by 7,542 hours of systematic observations. The experimental group received, on average, twice as much observed patrol presence, although the ratio displayed wide seasonal fluctuation. Reductions in total crime calls ranged from 6 percent to 13 percent. Observed disorder was only half as prevalent in experimental as in control hot spots. We conclude that substantial increases in police patrol presence can indeed cause modest reductions in crime and more impressive reductions in disorder within high crime locations.
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Many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention on persistent high-activity crime places.
“A number of researchers have argued that many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these persistent high‐activity crime places (Braga & Weisburd, 2010; Sherman & Weisburd, 1995; Weisburd, 1997).”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Sherman & Weisburd, 1995
Substantial evidence shows proactive policing can have meaningful effects on crime, especially when it is focused at crime hot spots.
“There is now substantial evidence that proactive policing can have meaningful effects on crime, especially when it is focused at crime hot spots—small areas, such as street segments that produce a substantial part of the crime problem (4–6).”
From Reforming the police through procedural justice training: A multicity randomized trial at crime hot spots (2022) · cites this paper as [6]
The Minneapolis Hot Spots study found modest but statistically significant reductions in total crime calls for service ranging from 6% to 13%.
“Modest, but statistically significant reductions in total crime calls for service ranging from 6% to 13%”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd (1995)
The patrol treatment in the Minneapolis Hot Spots experiment was disrupted during summer months due to a peak in the overall calls for service received by the Minneapolis Police Department and a shortage of officers due to vacations; this situation was further complicated by changes in the computerized calls for service system implemented in the fall.
“The patrol treatment in the Minneapolis Hot Spots experiment (Sherman & Weisburd, 1995, pp. 638–639) was disrupted during summer months due to a peak in the overall calls for service received by the Minneapolis Police Department and a shortage of officers due to vacations; this situation was further complicated by changes in the computerized calls for service system implemented in the fall.”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Sherman & Weisburd, 1995
Many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention on these deviant places.
“A number of researchers have argued that many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these deviant places (Sherman and Weisburd 1995; Weisburd and Green 1995a).”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
Based on observations of trained researchers, the treatment hot spots in the Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol study received twice as much police patrol presence compared to control hot spots.
“Based on the observations of trained researchers, the treatment hot spots received twice as much police patrol presence when compared to the control hot spots (Sherman and Weisburd 1995).”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
Using analysis of variance models, the Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol authors reported that the police patrol treatment generated between 6% and 13% statistically-significant reductions in calls for service in treatment hot spots relative to control hot spots.
“Using a series of analysis of variance models, the authors reported that the police patrol treatment generated between 6% and 13% statistically-significant reductions in calls for service in treatment hot spots relative to calls for service in control hot spots.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
The Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol authors conducted a sensitivity analysis with varying comparison dates to account for the lack of dosage during the summer months.
“The authors conducted a sensitivity analysis with varying comparison dates to account for the lack of dosage during the summer months.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
Analyses of systematic social observation data in the Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol study suggested that observed disorder was only half as prevalent in treatment hot spots relative to control hot spots.
“Analyses of systematic social observation data on disorderly behavior in the hot spots collected by trained researchers suggested that observed disorder was only half as prevalent in treatment hot spots relative to control hot spots.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
The Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol study authors noted that there was some breakdown in the treatment applied during summer months due to officer vacations and peak calls for service.
“The study authors noted that there was some breakdown in the treatment applied during summer months due to officer vacations and peak calls for service to the police department.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Sherman and Weisburd 1995
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CAN HOT SPOTS POLICING REDUCE CRIME IN URBAN AREAS? AN AGENT‐BASED SIMULATION*
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Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Terrorist Attacks by ETA 1970 to 2007
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Lum, C. M., & Nagin, D. S. (2016) · Crime and Justice · doi:10.1086/688462 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Ariel, B., Weinborn, C., & Sherman, L. W. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-016-9260-4 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
“Despite the impressive growth of this line of research since the original hot spots policing experiment (Sherman and Weisburd 1995), there are nevertheless major pieces missing from the puzzle—for instance, the police engagement necessary to exert a deterrent threat, which is the focus of our experiment.”
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Citizens' perceptions of aggressive traffic enforcement strategies
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A Geographic Approach to Racial Profiling
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Sherman, Lawrence W.
- Venue
- Justice Quarterly
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 1995-12
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 625-648
- ISSN
- 0741-8825 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-9109
- OpenAlex
- W2137258537
- Cited by
- 1,029
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 66 · 2019: 72 · 2018: 57 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 61 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 51 · 2012: 50
- FWCI
- 25.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Justice Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Keywords
- police patrol, crime hotspots, general deterrence, crime reduction, disorder, seasonal variation, Minneapolis
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