Cited by 110Air Quality and Health ImpactsClimate Change and Health ImpactsIndoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 9 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Acute effects of ambient ozone on mortality in Europe and North America: results from the APHENA study

Open access

Abstract

The "Air Pollution and Health: A Combined European and North American Approach" (APHENA) project is a collaborative analysis of multi-city time-series data on the association between air pollution and adverse health outcomes. The main objective of APHENA was to examine the coherence of findings of time-series studies relating short-term fluctuations in air pollution levels to mortality and morbidity in 125 cities in Europe, the US, and Canada. Multi-city time-series analysis was conducted using a two-stage approach. We used Poisson regression models controlling for overdispersion with either penalized or natural splines to adjust for seasonality. Hierarchical models were used to obtain an overall estimate of excess mortality associated with ozone and to assess potential effect modification. Potential effect modifiers were city-level characteristics related to exposure to other ambient air pollutants, weather, socioeconomic status, and the vulnerability of the population. Regionally pooled risk estimates from Europe and the US were similar; those from Canada were substantially higher. The pooled estimated excess relative risk associated with a 10 µg/m 3 increase in 1 h daily maximum O 3 was 0.26 % (95 % CI, 0.15 %, 0.37 %). Across regions, there was little consistent indication of effect modification by age or other effect modifiers considered in the analysis. The findings from APHENA on the effects of O 3 on mortality in the general population were comparable with previously reported results and relatively robust to the method of data analysis. Overall, there was no indication of strong effect modification by age or ecologic variables considered in the analysis.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The APHENA study pooled multi-city time-series data from Europe, the US, and Canada and found that short-term ambient ozone exposure was associated with increased all-cause mortality. Pooled risk estimates were similar for Europe and the US but substantially higher for Canada, with little consistent evidence of effect modification by age or other city-level factors.

Key findings

  • The pooled estimated excess relative risk associated with a 10 µg/m³ increase in 1 h daily maximum O₃ was 0.26% (95% CI, 0.15%, 0.37%) using natural splines with 8 df per year.
  • Warm-season effects were higher than annual effects: for all-cause non-accidental mortality, all ages, per 10 µg/m³ increase in average lags 0–1 O₃, excess risks were 0.25% (95% CI, 0.10%, 0.40%) in Europe, 0.95% (95% CI, 0.65%, 1.2%) in Canada, and 0.57% (95% CI, 0.35%, 0.79%) in the US.
  • There was little consistent effect modification by age or other modifiers. In the US, temperature had a strong negative modifying effect, with the percent increase in mortality per 10 µg/m³ O₃ ranging from 0.27% to 0.00% between the 25th and 75th percentiles of temperature.
  • The exposure–response analysis did not support a threshold for O₃ and total mortality in any of the three centers.

Methods

  • Two-stage multi-city time-series analysis: first-stage city-specific log-linear Poisson regression models with overdispersion, controlling for seasonality using natural splines or penalized splines with 3, 8, or 12 df per year, temperature smooths, day-of-week, and holiday effects.
  • Main year-round O₃ analysis included 23 European cities, 50 US cities, and 12 Canadian cities; warm-season analysis used all 86 US cities. Exposure was daily 1 h maximum O₃; outcomes included all-cause mortality excluding external causes, overall and by age (<75 and ≥75 years).
  • Second-stage Bayesian hierarchical models pooled city-specific effects and assessed effect modification by city-level variables; threshold analyses used a grid from 0 to 75 µg/m³ in 5 µg/m³ increments and compared AIC values.

Limitations

  • Stated: data came from multiple countries and had not been collected under a uniform protocol across Europe and North America; European data came from 24 countries with varying collection methods, and a fully harmonized database was not possible, leaving differing measurement error structures as potential contributors to heterogeneity.
  • Stated: effect-modification analyses were limited by the restricted number of variables measured with sufficient commonality; the only socioeconomic indicator available across the full dataset was unemployment rate, and data were unavailable on health status, diabetes, housing characteristics, or air pollution source mix.
  • Stated: identifying a threshold is exceedingly difficult because the O₃–mortality association is inherently small and would likely require far more data than APHENA could assemble. Evident from the text: Canadian estimates were based on smaller cities with wider confidence intervals, Canadian O₃ concentrations were lowest and covered the narrowest range, and Canadian PM₁₀ was measured only every sixth day, making two-pollutant estimates not directly comparable.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s11869-012-0180-9

Cites

16 of 16 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 9 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

Show all 24 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 24
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 4
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
26 of 26
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In the second-stage model, city-specific effects βc are normally distributed around an overall effect and are independent observations with variances equal to the between-cities variance and the squared standard error of βc.

    “For the second stage of the analysis, we assumed the city-specific effects βc to be normally distributed around an overall effect.”
    “These models assumed that city-specific effects βc were a sample of independent observations from a normal distribution with the same mean and with variances equal to the between-cities variance and the squared standard error of βc.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The smooth function of time serves as a proxy for any time-dependent outcome predictors or confounders with long-term trends and seasonal patterns not explicitly included in the model.

    “The smooth function of time serves as a proxy for any time-dependent outcome predictors or confounders with long-term trends and seasonal patterns not explicitly included in the model.”
2 of 2

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Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • European city count is smaller than the reported country count

    Minor

    The paper says the European data came from 24 countries, but it reports only 23 European cities in the analysis. Twenty-three cities cannot represent 24 countries.

  • UK conurbation count differs from the cited study title

    Minor

    The discussion attributes a result to a study of 14 UK conurbations, but the cited Pattenden et al. reference identifies its study as covering 15 British conurbations.

2 of 2

Citations

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Show all 16 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Health Effects Institute (2003) Revised analyses of time-series studies of air pollution and health. Health Effects Institute, Cambridge
  2. Health Effects Institute (2010) Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA): coordinated studies of short-term exposure to air pollution and daily mortality in four cities. HEI research report 154. Health Effects Institute, Boston
  3. World Health Organization (2006) Air quality guidelines: global ppdate 2005—particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. World Health Organization, Copenhagen

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Items 101–110 of 110

Metadata

Authors
Peng, R. D., Samoli, E., Pham, L., Dominici, F., Touloumi, G., Ramsay, T., Burnett, R. T., Krewski, D., Le Tertre, A., Cohen, A., Atkinson, R. W., Anderson, H. R., Katsouyanni, K., & Samet, J. M.
Affiliations
  • Johns Hopkins University (US)
  • National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • University of Ottawa (CA)
  • Health Canada (CA)
  • Health Effects Institute (US)
  • St George's, University of London (GB)
  • University of Southern California (US)
Corresponding author
Peng, Roger D.
Venue
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health
Published
2012-08-15
Volume
6
Issue
2
Pages
445-453
ISSN
  • 1873-9318 (ISSN-L)
  • 1873-9326
OpenAlex
W2002527279
Cited by
110
References
16
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 3
FWCI
3.77
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Air Quality Atmosphere & Health (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R21ES022585, R01ES019560)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
Keywords
ozone, ambient air pollution, mortality, excess relative risk, effect modification, air pollution and health

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