Ozone, heat and mortality: acute effects in 15 British conurbations
Abstract
Background: Acute associations between mortality and ozone are largely accepted, though recent evidence is less conclusive. Evidence on ozone–heat interaction is sparse. We assess effects of ozone, heat, and their interaction, on mortality in Britain. Methods: Acute effects of summer ozone on mortality were estimated using data from 15 conurbations in England and Wales (May–September, 1993–2003). 2-day means of daily maximum 8-h ozone were entered into case series analyses, controlling for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm, natural cubic splines of temperature, and other factors. Heat effects were estimated, comparing adjusted mortality rates at 97.5th and 75th percentiles of 2-day mean temperature. A separate model employed interaction terms to assess whether ozone effects increased on ‘hot days’ (where 2-day mean temperature exceeded the whole-year 95th percentile). Other heat metrics, and non-linear ozone effects, were also examined. Results: Adverse ozone and heat effects occurred in nearly all conurbations. The mean mortality rate ratio for heat effect across conurbations was 1.071 (1.050–1.093). The mean ozone rate ratio was 1.003 per 10 μg/m 3 ozone increase (95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). On ‘hot days’ the mean ozone effect reached 1.006 (1.002–1.009) per 10 μg/m 3, though ozone–heat interaction was significant in London only. On substituting maximum for mean temperature, the overall ozone effect reduced to null, though evidence remained of effects on hot days, particularly in London. An estimated ozone effect threshold was below current guidelines in ‘mean temperature’ models. Conclusion: While heat showed robust effects on summer mortality, estimates for ozone depended upon the modelling of temperature. However, there was some evidence that ozone effects were worse on hot days, whichever temperature measure was used.
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Coordinated multi-city studies in four major Asian cities and 14 UK conurbations reported 0.38% and 0.30% increases in all-natural cause mortality, respectively, associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in an 8-h average ozone.
“Coordinated multi-city studies in four major Asian cities and 14 UK conurbations reported 0.38 % and 0.30 % increases in all-natural cause mortality, respectively, associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in an 8-h average ozone (Health Effects Institute 2010; Pattenden et al. 2010).”
From Acute effects of ambient ozone on mortality in Europe and North America: results from the APHENA study (2013) · cites this paper as Pattenden et al. 2010
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- Authors
- Pattenden, S., Armstrong, B., Milojevic, A., Heal, M. R., Chalabi, Z., Doherty, R., Barratt, B., Kovats, R. S., & Wilkinson, P.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Pattenden, Sam
- Venue
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2010-08-25
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 699-707
- ISSN
- 0007-1072 (ISSN-L)
- 1351-0711
- 1470-7926
- OpenAlex
- W2171187825
- Semantic Scholar
- b44a62a13dec2ea89e0596357cecfe084249f058
- Cited by
- 108
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 4.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/E008763/1, NE/E008593/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
- Keywords
- ozone, heat, acute mortality, hot days, particulate matter, air pollution health effects, summer mortality, urban agglomerations
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Air Pollutants, Child, Child, Preschool, England, Environmental Exposure, Environmental Monitoring, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Ozone, Seasons, Temperature, Urban Health, Wales, Age Distribution, Particulate Matter, Young Adult, Epidemiological Monitoring
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