The DOI matches its Crossref record; 57 of the 57 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts
Open accessAbstract
Generic early-warning signals such as increased autocorrelation and variance have been demonstrated in time-series of systems with alternative stable states approaching a critical transition. However, lag times for the detection of such leading indicators are typically long. Here, we show that increased spatial correlation may serve as a more powerful early-warning signal in systems consisting of many coupled units. We first show why from the universal phenomenon of critical slowing down, spatial correlation should be expected to increase in the vicinity of bifurcations. Subsequently, we explore the applicability of this idea in spatially explicit ecosystem models that can have alternative attractors. The analysis reveals that as a control parameter slowly pushes the system towards the threshold, spatial correlation between neighboring cells tends to increase well before the transition. We show that such increase in spatial correlation represents a better early-warning signal than indicators derived from time-series provided that there is sufficient spatial heterogeneity and connectivity in the system.
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Cites
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems
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Self-citationEarly-warning signals for critical transitions
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854
Self-citationNonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering
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Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation
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Self-citationNonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry and Engineering
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Spatial pattern and ecological analysis
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Self-citationThresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states
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Cited by
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854
Self-citationAnticipating Critical Transitions
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1225244 · Cited by 2,208
Self-citationCritical Slowing Down as a Personalized Early Warning Signal for Depression
Wichers, M., Groot, P. C., & Psychosystems, E. G. (2016) · Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics · doi:10.1159/000441458 · Cited by 399
Scheffer, M. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/467411a · Cited by 238
Self-citationResilience in Clinical Care: Getting a Grip on the Recovery Potential of Older Adults
Gijzel, S. M. W., Whitson, H. E., van de Leemput, I. A., Scheffer, M., van Asselt, D., Rector, J. L., Olde Rikkert, M. G. M., & Melis, R. J. F. (2019) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.16149 · Cited by 92
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Dakos, V., van Nes, E. H., Donangelo, R., Fort, H., & Scheffer, M.
- Venue
- Theoretical Ecology
- Published
- 2009-11-11
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 163-174
- ISSN
- 1874-1738 (ISSN-L)
- 1874-1746
- OpenAlex
- W2159806788
- Cited by
- 339
- References
- 57
- FWCI
- 10.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Dakos, V., van Nes, E. H., Donangelo, R., Fort, H., & Scheffer, M. (2010). Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theoretical Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0060-6
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