Anticipating Critical Transitions
Open accessAbstract
All Change: Research on early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems such as ecosystems, climate, and global finance systems recently has been gathering pace. At the same time, studies on complex networks are starting to reveal which architecture may cause systems to be vulnerable to systemic collapse. Scheffer et al. (p. 344 ) review how previously isolated lines of work can be connected, conclude that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and highlight how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The text we found for this paper looks like another document, so the self-check wasn’t run.
Cites
Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory
Kuznetsov, Y. A. (2004) · Applied mathematical sciences · doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3978-7 · Cited by 5,580 · see citing works
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854 · see citing works
Self-citationUnderstanding the complexity of economic, ecological and social systems
Holling, C. S. (2001) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-001-0101-5 · Cited by 4,087 · see citing works
Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., & Holling, C. S. (2004) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35.021103.105711 · Cited by 3,847 · see citing works
Self-citationConfronting the coral reef crisis
Bellwood, D. R., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., & Nyström, M. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02691 · Cited by 3,430 · see citing works
The nested assembly of plant–animal mutualistic networks
Bascompte, J., Jordano, P., Melián, C. J., & Olesen, J. M. (2003) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1633576100 · Cited by 2,497 · see citing works
Self-citationApproaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere
Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., et al. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11018 · Cited by 1,966 · see citing works
Self-citationStability of Ecological Communities and the Architecture of Mutualistic and Trophic Networks
Thébault, É., & Fontaine, C. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1188321 · Cited by 1,826 · see citing works
Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states
May, R. M. (1977) · Nature · doi:10.1038/269471a0 · Cited by 1,763 · see citing works
Network structure and biodiversity loss in food webs: robustness increases with connectance
Dunne, J., Williams, R. J., & Martinez, N. D. (2002) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00354.x · Cited by 1,728 · see citing works
Systemic risk in banking ecosystems
Haldane, A. G., & May, R. M. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09659 · Cited by 1,480 · see citing works
Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems
Rietkerk, M., Dekker, S. C., de Ruiter, P. C., & van de Koppel, J. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1101867 · Cited by 1,418 · see citing works
Critical Transitions in Nature and Society
Scheffer, M. (2009) · doi:10.1515/9781400833276 · Cited by 1,394 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions
Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1210657 · Cited by 1,268 · see citing works
Self-citationDakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Ellison, A. M., Guttal, V., Ives, A. R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D. A., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041010 · Cited by 1,077 · see citing works
Self-citationSpatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems
Kéfi, S., Rietkerk, M., Alados, C. L., Pueyo, Y., Papanastasis, V. P., El-Aich, A., & de Ruiter, P. C. (2007) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06111 · Cited by 1,065 · see citing works
Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change
Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Brovkin, V. A., Petoukhov, V. K., & Held, H. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0802430105 · Cited by 1,036 · see citing works
Self-citationAngeli, D., Ferrell, J. E., & Sontag, E. D. (2004) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0308265100 · Cited by 1,007 · see citing works
Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition
Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A. (2006) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x · Cited by 973 · see citing works
Self-citationEarly Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
Carpenter, S. R., Cole, J. J., Pace, M. L., Batt, R. D., Brock, W. A., Cline, T. J., Coloso, J. J., Hodgson, J. R., Kitchell, J. F., Seekell, D. A., et al. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1203672 · Cited by 903 · see citing works
Self-citationFragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons
Levin, S. A. (1999) · Cited by 878 · see citing works
Self-citationElements of Applied Bifurcation Theory
Kuznetsov, Y. A. (1995) · Applied mathematical sciences · doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-2421-9 · Cited by 818 · see citing works
May, R. M., Levin, S. A., & Sugihara, G. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/451893a · Cited by 797 · see citing works
Self-citationCritical transitions in nature and society
Scheffer, M. (2009) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.47-1380 · Cited by 759 · see citing works
Self-citationTurning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it
Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0811729106 · Cited by 716 · see citing works
Self-citationEcological networks : Linking structure to dynamics in food webs
Pascual, M., & Dunne, J. A. (2006) · Cited by 715 · see citing works
Self-citationLundberg, J., & Moberg, F. (2003) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-002-0150-4 · Cited by 648 · see citing works
Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse
Dai, L., Vorselen, D., Korolev, K. S., & Gore, J. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1219805 · Cited by 628 · see citing works
Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species
Hsieh, C., Reiss, C. S., Hunter, J. R., Beddington, J. R., May, R. M., & Sugihara, G. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature05232 · Cited by 616 · see citing works
Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments
Drake, J. M., & Griffen, B. D. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09389 · Cited by 580 · see citing works
Slow Recovery from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift
van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2007) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/516845 · Cited by 557 · see citing works
Self-citationChanging skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems
Guttal, V., & Jayaprakash, C. (2008) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01160.x · Cited by 495 · see citing works
Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system
Veraart, A. J., Faassen, E. J., Dakos, V., van Nes, E. H., Lürling, M., & Scheffer, M. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10723 · Cited by 468 · see citing works
Self-citationNonequilibrium phase transitions in coordinated biological motion: critical fluctuations
Kelso, J. A. S., Scholz, J. P., & Schöner, G. (1986) · Physics Letters A · doi:10.1016/0375-9601(86)90359-2 · Cited by 463 · see citing works
Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management
deYoung, B., Barange, M., Beaugrand, G., Harris, R., Perry, R. I., Scheffer, M., & Werner, F. (2008) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.008 · Cited by 426 · see citing works
Self-citationA universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds
Wissel, C. (1984) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/bf00384470 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
Kuehn, C. (2011) · Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena · doi:10.1016/j.physd.2011.02.012 · Cited by 412 · see citing works
Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change
Adger, W. N., Eakin, H. C., & Winkels, A. (2008) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1890/070148 · Cited by 375 · see citing works
Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts
Dakos, V., van Nes, E. H., Donangelo, R., Fort, H., & Scheffer, M. (2009) · Theoretical Ecology · doi:10.1007/s12080-009-0060-6 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Self-citationTipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
Ditlevsen, P., & Johnsen, S. J. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl044486 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems
Bestelmeyer, B. T., Ellison, A. M., Fraser, W. R., Gorman, K. B., Holbrook, S. J., Laney, C., Ohman, M. D., Peters, D. P. C., Pillsbury, F. C., Rassweiler, A., et al. (2011) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es11-00216.1 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Lenton, T. M., Livina, V., Dakos, V., van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0304 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Self-citationIMPLICATIONS OF SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY FOR CATASTROPHIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS
van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-0550 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Self-citationMeasuring Resilience in Stochastic Systems
Ives, A. R. (1995) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.2307/2937138 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Causes and projections of abrupt climate‐driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic
Beaugrand, G., Edwards, M., Brander, K., Luczak, C., & Ibáñez, F. (2008) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Allometric degree distributions facilitate food-web stability
Otto, S. B., Rall, B. C., & Brose, U. (2007) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06359 · Cited by 286 · see citing works
Scholz, J. P., Kelso, J. A. S., & Schöner, G. (1987) · Physics Letters A · doi:10.1016/0375-9601(87)90038-7 · Cited by 260 · see citing works
Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems
PASCUAL, M., & GUICHARD, F. (2004) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2004.11.012 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Self-citationPrediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant?
McSharry, P., Smith, L. A., & Tarassenko, L. (2003) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/nm0303-241 · Cited by 242 · see citing works
Kleinen, T., Held, H., & Petschel‐Held, G. (2003) · Ocean Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s10236-002-0023-6 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system
Livina, V., & Lenton, T. M. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl028672 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Self-citationPotential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr
Livina, V., Kwasniok, F., & Lenton, T. M. (2010) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-6-77-2010 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Self-citationFood web models: a plea for groups.
Allesina, S., & Pascual, M. (2009) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01321.x · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Self-citationExploratory Data Analysis Using Fisher Information
Frieden, B. R., & Gatenby, R. A. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-84628-777-0 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Critical slowing down at a bifurcation
Tredicce, J. R., Lippi, G. L., Mandel, P., Charasse, B., Chevalier, A., & Picqué, B. (2004) · American Journal of Physics · doi:10.1119/1.1688783 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Solé, R. V., Manrubia, S. C., Luque, B., Delgado, J., & Bascompte, J. (1996) · Complexity · doi:10.1002/cplx.6130010405 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citationCorrelations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance
Gorban, A. N., Smirnova, E. V., & Tyukina, T. (2010) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.03.035 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Scaling Effects and Spatio-Temporal Multilevel Dynamics in Epileptic Seizures
Meisel, C., & Kuehn, C. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0030371 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique
Thompson, J. M. T., & Sieber, J. (2010) · IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics · doi:10.1093/imamat/hxq060 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Forecasting a class of bifurcations: Theory and experiment
Lim, J., & Epureanu, B. I. (2011) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.83.016203 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Symbolic time series analysis and dynamic regimes
Brida, J. G., & Punzo, L. F. (2003) · Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/s0954-349x(02)00050-4 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
INCREASED SPATIAL VARIANCE ACCOMPANIES REORGANIZATION OF TWO CONTINENTAL SHELF ECOSYSTEMS
Litzow, M. A., Urban, J. D., & Laurel, B. J. (2008) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/07-0998.1 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Stabilization of unstable states, relaxation, and critical slowing down in a bistable system
Kramer, J., & Ross, J. R. (1985) · The Journal of Chemical Physics · doi:10.1063/1.449571 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Hewitt, J., & Thrush, S. F. (2010) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08626 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Applications of Fisher Information to the Management of Sustainable Environmental Systems
Mayer, A. L., Pawlowski, C. W., Fath, B. D., & Cabezas, H. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-84628-777-0_7 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Matsumoto, G., & Kunisawa, T. (1978) · Journal of the Physical Society of Japan · doi:10.1143/jpsj.44.1047 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Criticality in earthquakes. Good or bad for prediction?
Ramos, O. (2009) · Tectonophysics · doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.11.007 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
Sornette, D., & Woodard, R. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-4-431-53853-0_6 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Tracking Traders' Understanding of the Market Using e-Communication Data
Saavedra, S., Duch, J., & Uzzi, B. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0026705 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Buzzwords on their way to a tipping‐point: A view from the blogosphere
Neuman, Y., Nave, O., & DOLEV, E. (2010) · Complexity · doi:10.1002/cplx.20347 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
(2005) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195188165.002.0002 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527 · see citing works
Self-citationAn agenda for sustainability transitions research: State of the art and future directions
Köhler, J., Geels, F. W., Kern, F., Markard, J., Onsongo, E., Wieczorek, A., Alkemade, F., Avelino, F., Bergek, A., Boons, F., et al. (2019) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2019.01.004 · Cited by 2,800 · see citing works
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., & McDowell, N. G. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es15-00203.1 · Cited by 2,653 · see citing works
Universal resilience patterns in complex networks
Gao, J., Barzel, B., & Barabási, A.-Ĺ. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature16948 · Cited by 1,227 · see citing works
Food system resilience: Defining the concept
Tendall, D. M., Joerin, J., Kopainsky, B., Edwards, P., Shreck, A., Le, Q. B., Kruetli, P., Grant, M., & Six, J. (2015) · Global Food Security · doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2015.08.001 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
Folke, C. (2016) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09088-210444 · Cited by 982 · see citing works
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J. J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., et al. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2108146119 · Cited by 799 · see citing works
“tems bring their own sources of fragility, particularly if networks are relatively homogeneous, with a few dominant nodes highly connected to everyone else (83).”
BackgroundSelf-citationCritical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression
van de Leemput, I. A., Wichers, M., Cramer, A. O. J., Borsboom, D., Tuerlinckx, F., Kuppens, P., van Nes, E. H., Viechtbauer, W., Giltay, E. J., Aggen, S. H., et al. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312114110 · Cited by 773 · see citing works
Self-citationβ-Diversity, Community Assembly, and Ecosystem Functioning
Mori, A. S., Isbell, F. I., & Seidl, R. (2018) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.04.012 · Cited by 738 · see citing works
Soil microbiota as game-changers in restoration of degraded lands
Coban, O., Deyn, G. B. D., & van der Ploeg, M. J. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abe0725 · Cited by 724 · see citing works
“The transition between states is a consequence of nonlinear feedbacks initiated by “disruptive” perturbation (16)—for example, from a healthy ecosystem to a collapsed one, or from one type of ecosystem to another.”
BackgroundOur future in the Anthropocene biosphere
Folke, C., Polasky, S., Rockström, J., Galaz, V., Westley, F. R., Lamont, M., Scheffer, M., Österblom, H., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., et al. (2021) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8 · Cited by 770 · see citing works
Self-citationRobustness and resilience of complex networks
Artime, O., Grassia, M., Domenico, M. D., Gleeson, J. P., Makse, H. A., Mangioni, G., Perc, M., & Radicchi, F. (2024) · Nature Reviews Physics · doi:10.1038/s42254-023-00676-y · Cited by 690 · see citing works
Jusup, M., Holme, P., Kanazawa, K., Takayasu, M., Romić, I., Wang, Z., Geček, S., Lipić, T., Boris Podobnik, A., Wang, L., et al. (2022) · Physics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2021.10.005 · Cited by 662 · see citing works
Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement
Lawrence, M. F., Homer-Dixon, T. F., Janzwood, S., Rockström, J., Renn, O., & Donges, J. F. (2024) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2024.1 · Cited by 626 · see citing works
“Unfortunately, complex systems that feature both high connectivity and high homogeneity among system elements can be especially prone to rapid, discontinuous change (Scheffer et al., 2012), much as closely planted agricultural monocrops are susceptible to devastation by pathogens.”
BackgroundCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Preiser, R., Biggs, R., Vos, A. D., & Folke, C. (2018) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-10558-230446 · Cited by 614 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal structure of cell fate decisions in murine neural crest
Soldatov, R., Kaucka, M., Kastriti, M. E., Petersen, J., Chontorotzea, T., Englmaier, L., Akkuratova, N., Yang, Y., Häring, M., Dyachuk, V., et al. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aas9536 · Cited by 546 · see citing works
Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., & van Nes, E. H. (2015) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054242 · Cited by 541 · see citing works
Self-citationA Clinical Frailty Index in Aging Mice: Comparisons With Frailty Index Data in Humans
Whitehead, J. C., Hildebrand, B. A., Sun, M., Rockwood, M. R. H., Rose, R. A., Rockwood, K. J., & Howlett, S. E. (2013) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glt136 · Cited by 514 · see citing works
Complexity theory and financial regulation
Battiston, S., Farmer, J. D., Flache, A., Garlaschelli, D., Haldane, A. G., Heesterbeek, H., Hommes, C., Jaeger, C. C., May, R. M., & Scheffer, M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad0299 · Cited by 512 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal Groundwater Sustainability, Resources, and Systems in the Anthropocene
Gleeson, T., Cuthbert, M. O., Ferguson, G., & Perrone, D. (2020) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-055251 · Cited by 508 · see citing works
Beyond the “at risk mental state” concept: transitioning to transdiagnostic psychiatry
McGorry, P. D., Hartmann, J. A., Spooner, R., & Nelson, B. (2018) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20514 · Cited by 488 · see citing works
Eco-evolutionary dynamics in an urbanizing planet
Alberti, M. (2014) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.11.007 · Cited by 476 · see citing works
Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems
Dearing, J. A., Wang, R., Zhang, K., Dyke, J. G., Haberl, H., Hossain, M. S., Langdon, P. G., Lenton, T. M., Raworth, K., Brown, S. A., et al. (2014) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.012 · Cited by 460 · see citing works
Self-citationAssessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
Puma, M. J., Bose, S., Chon, S. Y., & Cook, B. I. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems
Fedele, G., Donatti, C. I., Harvey, C. A., Hannah, L., & Hole, D. G. (2019) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.001 · Cited by 452 · see citing works
Cascading regime shifts within and across scales
Rocha, J., Peterson, G., Bodin, Ö., & Levin, S. A. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aat7850 · Cited by 453 · see citing works
Self-citationResilience in ecology: Abstraction, distraction, or where the action is?
Standish, R. J., Hobbs, R. J., Mayfield, M. M., Bestelmeyer, B. T., Suding, K. N., Battaglia, L. L., Eviner, V. T., Hawkes, C. V., Temperton, V. M., Cramer, V. A., et al. (2014) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.06.008 · Cited by 425 · see citing works
Metagenomics meets time series analysis: unraveling microbial community dynamics
Faust, K., Lahti, L., Gonze, D., de Vos, W. M., & Raes, J. (2015) · Current Opinion in Microbiology · doi:10.1016/j.mib.2015.04.004 · Cited by 415 · see citing works
Ecological Impacts of Alien Species: Quantification, Scope, Caveats, and Recommendations
Kumschick, S., Gaertner, M., Vilà, M., Essl, F., Jeschke, J., Pyšek, P., Ricciardi, A., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T., Dick, J., et al. (2015) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biu193 · Cited by 411 · see citing works
Biodiversity at risk under future cropland expansion and intensification
Kehoe, L., Romero-Muñoz, A., Polaina, E., Estes, L., Kreft, H., & Kuemmerle, T. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0234-3 · Cited by 395 · see citing works
General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events
Carpenter, S., Arrow, K., Barrett, S., Biggs, R., Brock, W., Crépin, A., Engström, G., Folke, C., Hughes, T., Kautsky, N., et al. (2012) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su4123248 · Cited by 370 · see citing works
Self-citationMoving From Static to Dynamic Models of the Onset of Mental Disorder
Nelson, B., McGorry, P. D., Wichers, M., Wigman, J. T. W., & Hartmann, J. (2017) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.0001 · Cited by 378 · see citing works
Poudel, R., Jumpponen, A., Schlatter, D., Paulitz, T. C., Gardener, B. B. M., Kinkel, L. L., & Garrett, K. A. (2016) · Phytopathology · doi:10.1094/phyto-02-16-0058-fi · Cited by 373 · see citing works
Sivapalan, M., & Blöschl, G. (2015) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2015wr017896 · Cited by 353 · see citing works
A complex network perspective on clinical science
Hofmann, S. G., Curtiss, J., & McNally, R. J. (2016) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691616639283 · Cited by 366 · see citing works
Stability, robustness, vulnerability and resilience of agricultural systems. A review
Urruty, N., Tailliez, D., & Huyghe, C. (2016) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-015-0347-5 · Cited by 382 · see citing works
Cell Fate Decision as High-Dimensional Critical State Transition
Mojtahedi, M., Skupin, A., Zhou, J., Castaño, I. G., Leong-Quong, R. Y. Y., Chang, H. H., Trachana, K., Giuliani, A., & Huang, S. (2016) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.2000640 · Cited by 346 · see citing works
Foundations of complexity economics
Arthur, W. B. (2021) · Nature Reviews Physics · doi:10.1038/s42254-020-00273-3 · Cited by 362 · see citing works
Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals
Scheffer, M., Bolhuis, J. E., Borsboom, D., Buchman, T. G., Gijzel, S. M. W., Goulson, D., Kammenga, J. E., Kemp, B., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1810630115 · Cited by 357 · see citing works
Self-citationAnatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem
Nyström, M., Jouffray, J.-B., Norström, A. V., Crona, B., Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Carpenter, S. R., Bodin, Ö., Galaz, V., & Folke, C. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1712-3 · Cited by 343 · see citing works
Self-citation(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 382 · see citing works
Xiong, W., Li, R., Ren, Y., Liu, C., Zhao, Q., Wu, H., Jousset, A., & Shen, Q. (2017) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2017.01.010 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Feasible alternatives to green growth
D’Alessandro, S., Cieplinski, A., Distefano, T., & Dittmer, K. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0484-y · Cited by 344 · see citing works
Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries
Hughes, T. P., Carpenter, S., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., & Walker, B. (2013) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Self-citationA Framework for Resilience-Based Governance of Social-Ecological Systems
Garmestani, A. S., & Benson, M. (2013) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-05180-180109 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G., & Swingedouw, D. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1511451112 · Cited by 332 · see citing works
Self-citationGrand Challenges for Archaeology
Kintigh, K., Altschul, J. H., Beaudry, M. C., Drennan, R. D., Kinzig, A. P., Kohler, T. A., Limp, W. F., Maschner, H. D. G., Michener, W. K., Paüketat, T. R., et al. (2014) · American Antiquity · doi:10.7183/0002-7316.79.1.5 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Evidence suggests potential transformation of the Pacific Arctic ecosystem is underway
Huntington, H. P., Danielson, S. L., Wiese, F. K., Baker, M. R., Boveng, P. L., Citta, J. J., Robertis, A. D., Dickson, D. M. S., Farley, E. V., George, J. C., et al. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0695-2 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Roy, P. S., Ramachandran, R. M., Paul, O., Thakur, P. K., Ravan, S. A., Behera, M. D., Sarangi, C., & Kanawade, V. P. (2022) · Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1007/s12524-022-01569-w · Cited by 348 · see citing works
Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology
Buitenwerf, R., Rose, L., & Higgins, S. I. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2533 · Cited by 317 · see citing works
Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio‐temporal scales: approaches and challenges
Reyer, C., Brouwers, N., Rammig, A., Brook, B. W., Epila, J., Grant, R. F., Holmgren, M., Langerwisch, F., Leuzinger, S., Lucht, W., et al. (2015) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12337 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation
Rietkerk, M., Bastiaansen, R., Banerjee, S., van de Koppel, J., Baudena, M., & Doelman, A. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abj0359 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
Deconstructing and Reconstructing Resilience: A Dynamic Network Approach
Kalisch, R., Cramer, A. O. J., Binder, H., Fritz, J., Leertouwer, I., Lunansky, G., Meyer, B., Timmer, J., Veer, I. M., & van Harmelen, A. (2019) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691619855637 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
Balke, T., Herman, P. M. J., & Bouma, T. J. (2014) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12241 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
The sudden collapse of pollinator communities
Lever, J. J., van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., & Bascompte, J. (2014) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12236 · Cited by 293 · see citing works
Self-citationA social-ecological systems approach for environmental management
Virapongse, A., Brooks, S., Metcalf, E. C., Zedalis, M., Gosz, J., Kliskey, A. D., & Alessa, L. (2016) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.02.028 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
Stewardship of global collective behavior
Bak-Coleman, J. B., Alfano, M., Barfuss, W., Bergstrom, C. T., Centeno, M. A., Couzin, I. D., Donges, J. F., Galesic, M., Gersick, A. S., Jacquet, J., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2025764118 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Gaertner, M., Biggs, R., Te Beest, M., Hui, C., Molofsky, J., & Richardson, D. M. (2014) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12182 · Cited by 311 · see citing works
Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change
Schindler, D. E., & Hilborn, R. W. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1261824 · Cited by 286 · see citing works
Short term fluctuations of wind and solar power systems
Anvari, M., Lohmann, G. M., Wächter, M., Milan, P., Lorenz, E., Heinemann, D., Tabar, M. R. R., & Peinke, J. (2016) · New Journal of Physics · doi:10.1088/1367-2630/18/6/063027 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Spectrum of controlling and observing complex networks
Yan, G. F., Tsekenis, G., Barzel, B., Slotine, J.-J. E., Liu, Y., & Barabási, A.-Ĺ. (2015) · Nature Physics · doi:10.1038/nphys3422 · Cited by 282 · see citing works
Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change
Heinrich, V., Dalagnol, R., Cassol, H., Rosan, T. M., de Almeida, C. T., Silva, C. H. L., Campanharo, W. A., House, J. I., Sitch, S. A., Hales, T. C., et al. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22050-1 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Lenton, T. M. (2013) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102511-084654 · Cited by 281 · see citing works
Self-citationDeep learning for early warning signals of tipping points
Bury, T. M., Sujith, R. I., Pavithran, I., Scheffer, M., Lenton, T. M., Anand, M., & Bauch, C. T. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2106140118 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
“This information is important to know for both theoretical and practical purposes, since tipping points in many systems can lead to undesirable collapse (14).”
BackgroundSelf-citationTurning ecology and evolution against cancer
Korolev, K. S., Xavier, J. B., & Gore, J. (2014) · Nature reviews. Cancer · doi:10.1038/nrc3712 · Cited by 282 · see citing works
Transnational Corporations as ‘Keystone Actors’ in Marine Ecosystems
Österblom, H., Jouffray, J.-B., Folke, C., Crona, B., Troell, M., Merrie, A., & Rockström, J. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127533 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
Spatial variation in determinants of agricultural land abandonment in Europe.
Levers, C., Schneider, M., Prishchepov, A., Estel, S., & Kuemmerle, T. (2018) · Science of the Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.326 · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change
Anthony, K. R. N., Marshall, P. A., Abdulla, A., Beeden, R., Bergh, C., Black, R., Eakin, C. M., Game, E. T., Gooch, M., Graham, N. A. J., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12700 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Loss of secondary‐forest resilience by land‐use intensification in the <scp>A</scp> mazon
Jakovac, C. C., Peña‐Claros, M., Kuyper, T. W., & Bongers, F. (2015) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12298 · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Viewing forests through the lens of complex systems science
Filotas, É., Parrott, L., Burton, P. J., Chazdon, R. L., Coates, K. D., Coll, L., Haeussler, S., Martin, K., Nocentini, S., Puettmann, K. J., et al. (2014) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es13-00182.1 · Cited by 261 · see citing works
How critical is brain criticality?
O’Byrne, J., & Jerbi, K. (2022) · Trends in Neurosciences · doi:10.1016/j.tins.2022.08.007 · Cited by 260 · see citing works
Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?
Brook, B. W., Ellis, E. C., Perring, M. P., Mackay, A. W., & Blomqvist, L. (2013) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.01.016 · Cited by 261 · see citing works
Franzke, C. L. E., Ciullo, A., Gilmore, E., Matias, D. M., Nagabhatla, N., Orlov, A., Paterson, S. K., Scheffran, J., & Sillmann, J. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fd · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic
Bergstrom, D. M., Wienecke, B. C., van den Hoff, J., Hughes, L., Lindenmayer, D. B., Ainsworth, T. D., Baker, C. M., Bland, L. M., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Brooks, S. T., et al. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15539 · Cited by 261 · see citing works
Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities
Dakos, V., & Bascompte, J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1406326111 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, X., Li, D., Ma, M., Szymanski, B. K., Stanley, E., & Gao, J. (2022) · Physics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2022.04.002 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Dalege, J., Borsboom, D., van Harreveld, F., & van der Maas, H. L. J. (2017) · Social Psychological and Personality Science · doi:10.1177/1948550617709827 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis
Homer-Dixon, T., Walker, B., Biggs, R., Crépin, A.-S., Folke, C., Lambin, E. F., Peterson, G. D., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Steffen, W., et al. (2015) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-07681-200306 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Self-citationAn Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications
Siegenfeld, A. F., & Bar-Yam, Y. (2020) · Complexity · doi:10.1155/2020/6105872 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
“they assume that the total impact of a set of factors is equal to the sum of the impacts of each individual factor, an assumption that often breaks down for complex systems, which may possess feedback loops, abrupt transitions (tipping points), and other highly nonlinear behaviors [57–64].”
BackgroundDynamic versus static biomarkers in cancer immune checkpoint blockade: unravelling complexity
Lesterhuis, W. J., Bosco, A., Millward, M., SMALL, M. P., Nowak, A. K., & Lake, R. (2017) · Nature Reviews Drug Discovery · doi:10.1038/nrd.2016.233 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking "why, what and how?"
Blair, P., & Buytaert, W. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-443-2016 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Tipping points in the dynamics of speciation
Nosil, P., Feder, J. L., Flaxman, S. M., & Gompert, Z. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-016-0001 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Beyond linear mediation: Toward a dynamic network approach to study treatment processes
Hofmann, S. G., Curtiss, J. E., & Hayes, S. C. (2020) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2020.101824 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
The emergence of global systemic risk
Centeno, M. A., Nag, M., Patterson, T. S., Shaver, A., & Windawi, A. J. (2015) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112317 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review
Catalán, J., Pla‐Rabès, S., Wolfe, A. P., Smol, J. P., Rühland, K. M., Anderson, N. J., Kopáček, J., Stuchlı́k, E., Schmidt, R., Koinig, K. A., et al. (2013) · Journal of Paleolimnology · doi:10.1007/s10933-013-9681-2 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications
Siegenfeld, A. F., & Yaneer Bar-yam, A. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 236 · see citing works
The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems
Mcleod, E., Anthony, K. R. N., Mumby, P. J., Maynard, J. A., Beeden, R., Graham, N. A. J., Heron, S. F., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., Jupiter, S. D., MacGowan, P., et al. (2018) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.034 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
Unification of Neuronal Spikes, Seizures, and Spreading Depression
Wei, Y., Ullah, G., & Schiff, S. J. (2014) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0516-14.2014 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Realizing resilience for decision-making
Grafton, R. Q., Doyen, L., Béné, C., Borgomeo, E., Brooks, K., Chu, L., Cumming, G. S., Dixon, J., Dovers, S. R., Garrick, D. E., et al. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0376-1 · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Regime shifts in a social-ecological system
Lade, S. J., Tavoni, A., Levin, S. A., & Schlüter, M. (2013) · Theoretical Ecology · doi:10.1007/s12080-013-0187-3 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Self-citationFramework for understanding marine ecosystem health
Tett, P., Gowen, R., Painting, S. J., Elliott, M., Forster, R. M., Mills, D. K., Bresnan, E., Capuzzo, E., Fernandes, T. F., Foden, J., et al. (2013) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps10539 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Drought-induced vegetation shifts in terrestrial ecosystems: The key role of regeneration dynamics
Martínez‐Vilalta, J., & Lloret, F. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.009 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Contributions of Quaternary botany to modern ecology and biogeography
Birks, H. J. B. (2019) · Plant Ecology & Diversity · doi:10.1080/17550874.2019.1646831 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China’s Loess Plateau
Wu, X., Wei, Y., Fu, B., Wang, S., Zhao, Y., & Moran, E. F. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc0276 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services
Rocha, J., Yletyinen, J., Biggs, R., Blenckner, T., & Peterson, G. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0273 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
Zemek, R. M., de Jong, E., Chin, W. L., Schuster, I. S., Fear, V. S., Casey, T. H., Forbes, C., Dart, S., Leslie, C., Zaitouny, A., et al. (2019) · Science Translational Medicine · doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.aav7816 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Grand challenges for archaeology
Kintigh, K., Altschul, J. H., Beaudry, M. C., Drennan, R. D., Kinzig, A. P., Kohler, T. A., Limp, W. F., Maschner, H. D. G., Michener, W. K., Paüketat, T. R., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1324000111 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Geometry of quantum phase transitions
Carollo, A. C. M., Valenti, D., & Spagnolo, B. (2019) · Physics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2019.11.002 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
Lenton, T. M. (2020) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0123 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., & Vandermeer, J.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Spatial Ecology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Post Office Box 140, 4400AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
- Princeton University (US)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2012-10-19
- Volume
- 338
- Issue
- 6105
- Pages
- 344-348
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2153268540
- Cited by
- 2,208
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 170 · 2025: 174 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 197 · 2021: 200 · 2020: 185 · 2019: 196 · 2018: 151 · 2017: 154 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 120 · 2014: 118 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 8.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- NIOZ Publications (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1144683)
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005474/1)
- Division of Environmental Biology (1144683)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- tipping points, complex systems, early warning indicators, ecological networks, financial markets, system collapse
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Forecasting, Humans, Risk Assessment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review