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Cited by 50Family Dynamics and RelationshipsReproductive Health and ContraceptionMarriage and Family Dynamics

Cohort trends in premarital first births: what role for the retreat from marriage?

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England, Paula, Wu, Lawrence L., Shafer, Emily Fitzgibbons·2013·Demography
DOI 10.1007/s13524-013-0241-1PMC PMC4682872
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Abstract

We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting cohort trends in (1) the age-specific risk of a premarital conception taken to term; (2) the age-specific risk of first marriages not preceded by such a conception, which will influence women's years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) whether a premarital conception is resolved by entering a first marriage before the resulting first birth (a "shotgun marriage"). For women born between 1920-1924 and 1945-1949, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to increases in premarital conceptions. For women born between 1945-1949 and 1960-1964, increases in premarital first births were primarily attributable to declines in responding to premarital conceptions by marrying before the birth. Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not preceded by conceptions-a finding that holds for both whites and blacks. These results cast doubt on hypotheses concerning "marriageable" men and instead suggest that increases in premarital first births resulted initially from increases in premarital sex and then later from decreases in responding to a conception by marrying before a first birth.

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  • Particularly in higher resourced countries, there has been a trend towards uncoupling marriage and childbearing, with more births occurring outside of legal marriages, fewer marriages as a result of premarital conception, and married couples waiting longer after marriage for childbearing.

    “particularly in higher resourced countries, there has been a trend towards uncoupling marriage and childbearing, with more births occurring outside of legal marriages, fewer marriages as a result of premarital conception, and married couples waiting longer after marriage for childbearing”

    From Becoming a sexual being: The “elephant in the room” of adolescent brain development (2017) · cites this paper as England et al., 2013

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  1. Hamilton BE Martin JA Ventura SJ 2010 Births: Preliminary data for 2009 National Vital Statistics Reports 59(3) Hyattsville, MD National Center for Health Statistics 25073731

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Authors
England, P., Wu, L. L., & Shafer, E. F.
Affiliations
  • New York University (US)
  • Portland State University (US)
Corresponding author
England, Paula
ORCID
Venue
Demography
Publisher
Duke University Press
Published
2013-09-26
Volume
50
Issue
6
Pages
2075-2104
ISSN
  • 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
  • 1533-7790
DOI
10.1007/s13524-013-0241-1
PMC
PMC4682872
OpenAlex
W2043755868
Cited by
50
References
67
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 1
FWCI
12.72
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations
  • Demography (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD29550, R01HD029550)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Marriage and Family Dynamics
Keywords
age at marriage, premarital conception, premarital sex, cohort trends, racial differences, women's reproductive behavior
MeSH terms
Birth Order, Female, Humans, Illegitimacy, Male, Marriage, Sexual Behavior, Statistics as Topic, United States, Cohort Studies

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