The DOI matches its Crossref record; 119 of the 119 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Seasonal crop yield forecast: Methods, applications, and accuracies
Abstract
Abstract The perfect knowledge of yield before harvest has been a wish puzzling human being since the beginning of agriculture because seasonal forecast of crop yield plays a critical role in decision making for different stakeholders—from farmers to policy makers to governments for food security, to commodities traders. Different methods have been used to forecast yield with different levels of granularity, accuracy and timing. This chapter presents a critical review of the current seasonal crop yield forecasting methods found in the scientific literature. Extensive research has been conducted on crop yield forecast, particularly for wheat, maize, rice, barley, and soybean. Yield forecast are mainly based on field surveys, statistical regressions between historical yield and in-season variables (agrometeorological, or remotely sensed data), crop simulation models, or on integration between statistical modeling with dynamic process-based crop simulation models. A low number of studies rely on field surveys as a means to forecast yield, but they remain the main methods of yield forecast and estimation in several countries (i.e., USA). This chapter aims to report results found in peer-review journals for different crops, methods, geographies, and accuracies, and to end with a critical perspective on the advantage and disadvantage of the different methods currently employed by researchers and stakeholders.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1204531 · Cited by 4,546
Light scattering by leaf layers with application to canopy reflectance modeling: The SAIL model
Verhoef, W. (1984) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/0034-4257(84)90057-9 · Cited by 2,028
A review of vegetation indices
Bannari, A., Morin, D., Bonn, F., & Huete, A. R. (1995) · Remote Sensing Reviews · doi:10.1080/02757259509532298 · Cited by 1,671
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., & Döll, P. (2010) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2008gb003435 · Cited by 1,561
Application of vegetation index and brightness temperature for drought detection
Kogan, F. N. (1995) · Advances in Space Research · doi:10.1016/0273-1177(95)00079-t · Cited by 1,414
A crop phenology detection method using time-series MODIS data
Sakamoto, T., Yokozawa, M., Toritani, H., Shibayama, M., Ishitsuka, N., & OHNO, H. (2005) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2005.03.008 · Cited by 929
Remote sensing of weather impacts on vegetation in non-homogeneous areas
Kogan, F. N. (1990) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431169008955102 · Cited by 802
Forecasting crop yield using remotely sensed vegetation indices and crop phenology metrics
Bolton, D. K., & Friedl, M. A. (2013) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.01.007 · Cited by 785
Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change
Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S. M., Schlenker, W., & Sobel, A. (2013) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/ret016 · Cited by 662
In‐Season Prediction of Potential Grain Yield in Winter Wheat Using Canopy Reflectance
Raun, W. R., Solie, J. B., Johnson, G. V., Stone, M. L., Lukina, E. V., Thomason, W. E., & Schepers, J. S. (2001) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.2134/agronj2001.931131x · Cited by 511
Cited by
Rashid, M., Bari, B. S., Yusup, Y., Kamaruddin, M. A., & Khan, N. (2021) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2021.3075159 · Cited by 369
Machine learning for large-scale crop yield forecasting
Paudel, D., Boogaard, H., de Wit, A., Janssen, S., Osinga, S., Pylianidis, C., & Athanasiadis, I. N. (2021) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103016 · Cited by 357
Predicting crop yields and soil‐plant nitrogen dynamics in the US Corn Belt
Archontoulis, S. V., Castellano, M. J., Licht, M. A., Nichols, V., Baum, M., Huber, I., Martinez‐Feria, R., Puntel, L., Ordóñez, R. A., Iqbal, J., et al. (2020) · Crop Science · doi:10.1002/csc2.20039 · Cited by 166
Metadata
- Authors
- Basso, B., & Liu, L.
- Venue
- Advances in Agronomy
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Published
- 2019
- Pages
- 201-255
- ISSN
- 0065-2113 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2905983018
- Cited by
- 320
- References
- 119
- FWCI
- 37.53
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Seasonal crop yield forecast: Methods, applications, and accuracies. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/bs.agron.2018.11.002
- The paper
- Basso, B., & Liu, L. (2019). Seasonal crop yield forecast: Methods, applications, and accuracies. Advances in Agronomy. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.agron.2018.11.002
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.