Limited evidence for probability matching as a strategy in probability learning tasks
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Recent work has questioned how often probability matching happens in probability learning tasks.
“Recent work has questioned how often probability matching happens in probability learning tasks, where participants learn probabilities over numerous trials(Montag, 2021;Saldana et al., 2022).”
From Probability matching and statistical naïveté (2025) · cites this paper as Montag, 2021
Cites
PROBABILISTICALLY REINFORCED CHOICE BEHAVIOR IN PIGEONS<sup>1</sup>
Shimp, C. P. (1966) · Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior · doi:10.1901/jeab.1966.9-443 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
The smart potential behind probability matching
Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J. (2008) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2008.09.007 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Rational variability in children's causal inferences: the sampling hypothesis
Denison, S., Bonawitz, E., Gopnik, A., & Griffiths, T. L. (2013) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2012.10.010 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Probability matching and strategy availability
J. Koehler, D., & James, G. (2010) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/mc.38.6.667 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
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Probability matching and statistical naïveté
Barlow, M., Doan, T., Friedman, O., & Denison, S. (2025) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/jdm.2025.10014 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Montag, J. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Corresponding author
- Jessica L. Montag
- ORCID
- Jessica L. Montag
- Venue
- Psychology of Learning and Motivation
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Published
- 2021
- Pages
- 233-273
- ISSN
- 0079-7421 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3147503656
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 13.06
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- The Psychology of learning and motivation/The psychology of learning and motivation (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation
- National Science Foundation (1123788)
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01 HD047425, T32 HD049899)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Child and Animal Learning Development
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- probability matching, probability learning, probability maximization, children versus adults, reinforcement learning, language learning, cognitive development, behavioral variability
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