The smart potential behind probability matching
Open accessAbstract
Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of people's well-documented misperception of randomness. People search for patterns even in random sequences, which results in probability matching at the outcome level. Previous studies have supported this by the finding that distracting people with a secondary verbal working memory task presumably prevents the pattern search, resulting in more maximizing behavior that is considered more rational. The current paper demonstrates with two experiments that there is actually truth in both accounts. For some participants, probability matching indeed seems to be the result of a cognitive shortcut, a simple "win-stay, lose-shift" strategy, and in one experiment identified these as participants low in working memory capacity. For others, however, a potentially smart pattern search strategy underlies probability matching. These probability matchers (who still look irrational in the absence of patterns) actually have a higher chance of finding a pattern if one exists. Contrary to the almost uniformly negative perception of probability matching, we therefore conclude that there can be a potentially smart strategy behind probability matching.
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Choice in experiential learning: True preferences or experimental artifacts?
Ashby, N. J. S., Konstantinidis, E., & Yechiam, E. (2017) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.010 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Gaschler, R., Marewski, J. N., Wenke, D., & Frensch, P. A. (2014) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01388 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
da Silva, C. F., Victorino, C. G., Caticha, N., & Baldo, M. V. C. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-15587-z · Cited by 12 · see citing works
A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making
da Silva, C. F., & Baldo, M. V. C. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0034371 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Compete, coordinate, and cooperate: How to exploit uncertain environments with social interaction.
Schulze, C., & Newell, B. R. (2015) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0000096 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
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Limited evidence for probability matching as a strategy in probability learning tasks
(2021) · Psychology of Learning and Motivation · doi:10.1016/bs.plm.2021.02.005 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Pigeons, Humans, and the Monty Hall Dilemma
Herbranson, W. T. (2012) · Current Directions in Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0963721412453585 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
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Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices.
Weiss‐Cohen, L., Newall, P. W. S., & Ayton, P. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/xap0000358 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Evaluating the Bayesian causal inference model of intentional binding through computational modeling
Tanaka, T. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-53071-7 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Striving for perfection and falling short: The influence of goals on probability matching
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Dissociating Attention and Eye Movements in a Quantitative Analysis of Attention Allocation
Heyman, G. M., Montemayor, J., & Grisanzio, K. A. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00715 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Developmental perspectives on phonological typology and sound change
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- Authors
- Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J.
- Affiliations
- Max Planck Institute for Human Development (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
- Venue
- Cognition
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008-12
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 416-422
- ISSN
- 0010-0277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2091318897
- Cited by
- 223
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 29 · 2012: 17
- FWCI
- 5.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nbn-resolving.de
- Locations
- Cognition (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- probability matching, pattern search, win-stay lose-shift strategy, working memory capacity, cognitive shortcuts, decision-making, rationality
- MeSH terms
- Choice Behavior, Cognition, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Female, Humans, Male, Memory, Memory, Short-Term, Mental Processes, Pattern Recognition, Visual, Photic Stimulation, Probability Learning, Visual Perception, Young Adult
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