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Preliminary Development of a Clinical Prediction Rule for Determining Which Patients With Low Back Pain Will Respond to a Stabilization Exercise Program
Abstract
Objective To develop a clinical prediction rule to predict treatment response to a stabilization exercise program for patients with low back pain (LBP).Design A prospective, cohort study of patients with nonradicular LBP referred to physical therapy (PT).Setting Outpatient PT clinics.Participants Fifty-four patients with nonradicular LBP.Intervention A standardized stabilization exercise program.Main outcome measure Treatment response (success or failure) was categorized based on changes in the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire scores after 8 weeks.Results Eighteen subjects were categorized as treatment successes, 15 as treatment failures, and 21 as somewhat improved. After using regression analyses to determine the association between standardized examination variables and treatment response status, preliminary clinical prediction rules were developed for predicting success (positive likelihood ratio [LR], 4.0) and failure (negative LR, .18). The most important variables were age, straight-leg raise, prone instability test, aberrant motions, lumbar hypermobility, and fear-avoidance beliefs.Conclusions It appears that the response to a stabilization exercise program in patients with LBP can be predicted from variables collected from the clinical examination. The prediction rules could be used to determine whether patients with LBP are likely to benefit from stabilization exercises.
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“Likewise, determining the optimal dose for maximal treatment success (response) is still a matter of debate [12,13].”
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“The optimal dose-response-relationship for the utmost treatment success is, thus, still unknown.”
From Dose-response-relationship of stabilisation exercises in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain: a systematic review with meta-regression (2020) · cites this paper as [10]
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Sørensen, P. H., Bendix, T., Manniche, C., Korsholm, L., Lemvigh, D., & Indahl, A. (2010) · BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · doi:10.1186/1471-2474-11-212 · Cited by 73
“However, some further selection criteria have been elaborated since we started,[68] and therefore it could be that more accurate selection of patients for this treatment might have given different results.”
ResultHenry, S. M., Dillen, L. R. V., Ouellette-Morton, R. H., Hitt, J. R., Lomond, K. V., DeSarno, M., & Bunn, J. Y. (2014) · The Spine Journal · doi:10.1016/j.spinee.2014.03.024 · Cited by 69
Motor control or graded activity exercises for chronic low back pain? A randomised controlled trial
Macedo, L. G., Latimer, J., Maher, C. G., Hodges, P. W., Nicholas, M., Tonkin, L., McAuley, J. H., & Stafford, R. (2008) · BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · doi:10.1186/1471-2474-9-65 · Cited by 69
“Around 60–80% of the population will at some time exhibit low back pain [2-5] and of these 70 to 80% will have at least one recurrence [6].”
George, S. Z., Bialosky, J. E., & Donald, D. A. (2005) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2005.35.9.580 · Cited by 68
Melloh, M., Röder, C., Elfering, A., Theis, J., Müller, U., Staub, L., Aghayev, E., Zweig, T., Barz, T., Kohlmann, T., et al. (2008) · BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · doi:10.1186/1471-2474-9-81 · Cited by 69
Clinical prediction rules in the physiotherapy management of low back pain: A systematic review
Haskins, R., Rivett, D. A., & Osmotherly, P. G. (2011) · Manual Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.math.2011.05.001 · Cited by 71
“Stabilisation exercise e failure Prone instability test, aberrant movement, hypermobility, FABQ physical activity subscale > 8 (4 variables) Hicks et al., 2005 Derivation n ¼ 54, LBP þ/ leg pain, referred to outpatient physiotherapy clinics, mean 42.4 years old, 57% female, mean 41 days of…”
BackgroundInfluentialSaper, R. B., Sherman, K. J., Delitto, A., Herman, P. M., Stevans, J. M., Paris, R., Keosaian, J. E., Cerrada, C. J., Lemaster, C. M., Faulkner, C. L., et al. (2014) · Trials · doi:10.1186/1745-6215-15-67 · Cited by 69
“Stabilization participants receive exercises to strengthen core trunk muscles (Table 5) [69].”
BackgroundNagrale, A. V., Patil, S. P., Gandhi, R. A., & Learman, K. (2012) · Journal of Manual & Manipulative Therapy · doi:10.1179/2042618611y.0000000015 · Cited by 69
Clinical Observation of Standing Trunk Movements: What Do the Aberrant Movement Patterns Tell Us?
Biely, S. A., Silfies, S. P., Smith, S. S., & Hicks, G. E. (2014) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2014.4988 · Cited by 66
Self-citationThe Hip’s Influence on Low Back Pain: A Distal Link to a Proximal Problem
Reiman, M. P., Weisbach, P. C., & Glynn, P. E. (2009) · Journal of Sport Rehabilitation · doi:10.1123/jsr.18.1.24 · Cited by 65
Physical Therapy Utilization of Graded Exposure for Patients With Low Back Pain
George, S. Z., & Zeppieri, G. (2009) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2009.2983 · Cited by 67
Subclassification of low back pain: a cross-country comparison
Billis, E. V., McCarthy, C. J., & Oldham, J. A. (2007) · European Spine Journal · doi:10.1007/s00586-007-0313-2 · Cited by 64
“[46] utilized a prediction rule for identifying patients likely to respond to a stabilization exercise programme.”
MethodManual physical assessment of spinal segmental motion: Intent and validity
Abbott, J. H., Flynn, T. W., Fritz, J. M., Hing, W. A., Reid, D. A., & Whitman, J. M. (2007) · Manual Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.math.2007.09.011 · Cited by 64
Cleland, J. A., Fritz, J. M., & Brennan, G. P. (2007) · European Spine Journal · doi:10.1007/s00586-007-0511-y · Cited by 64
Prognostic factors for recovery from postpartum pelvic girdle pain
Vøllestad, N. K., & Stuge, B. (2009) · European Spine Journal · doi:10.1007/s00586-009-0911-2 · Cited by 63
“2 for the final multivariate model as some authors have done previously [15].”
ResultJavadian, Y., Behtash, H., Akbari, M., Taghipour‐Darzi, M., & Zekavat, H. (2012) · Journal of Back and Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation · doi:10.3233/bmr-2012-0321 · Cited by 62
“[14].”
InfluentialSung, W., Abraham, M., Plastaras, C. T., & Silfies, S. P. (2015) · The Spine Journal · doi:10.1016/j.spinee.2015.04.010 · Cited by 62
“A detailed description of the clinical tests and criteria used in the CPR can be 7 found in the appendix of the Hicks et al (2005) study [39].”
InfluentialFluoroscopic Video to Identify Aberrant Lumbar Motion
Teyhen, D. S., Flynn, T. W., Childs, J. D., Kuklo, T. R., Rosner, M. K., Polly, D. W., & Abraham, L. D. (2007) · Spine · doi:10.1097/01.brs.0000259206.38946.cb · Cited by 60
Association Between Directional Preference and Centralization in Patients With Low Back Pain
Werneke, M. W., Hart, D. L., Cutrone, G., Oliver, D., McGill, M. T., Weinberg, J. R., Grigsby, D., Oswald, W., & Ward, J. (2010) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2011.3415 · Cited by 59
Metadata
- Authors
- Hicks, G. E., Fritz, J. M., Delitto, A., & McGill, S. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Maryland, Baltimore (US)
- University of Utah (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- University of Waterloo (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Hicks, Gregory E.
- Venue
- Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2005-09
- Volume
- 86
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1753-1762
- ISSN
- 0003-9993 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2124409697
- Cited by
- 621
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 24 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 45 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 50
- FWCI
- 22.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation › Musculoskeletal pain and rehabilitation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Spine and Intervertebral Disc Pathology
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation › Medical Practices and Rehabilitation
- Keywords
- low back pain, stabilization exercises, clinical prediction rules, treatment response prediction, physiotherapy, Oswestry Disability Index, straight leg raise, fear-avoidance beliefs, age
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Exercise Therapy, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pain Measurement, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Severity of Illness Index, Cohort Studies, Confidence Intervals, Treatment Outcome, Low Back Pain, Physical Therapy Modalities
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