Cited by 209Functional Brain Connectivity StudiesStatistical Methods in EpidemiologyArtificial Intelligence in Healthcare

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When Optimism Hurts: Inflated Predictions in Psychiatric Neuroimaging

Whelan, Robert, Garavan, Hugh·2014·Biological Psychiatry

DOI 10.1016/j.biopsych.2013.05.014

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Abstract

The ability to predict outcomes from neuroimaging data has the potential to answer important clinical questions such as which depressed patients will respond to treatment, which abstinent drug users will relapse, or which patients will convert to dementia. However, many prediction analyses require methods and techniques, not typically required in neuroimaging, to accurately assess a model's predictive ability. Regression models will tend to fit to the idiosyncratic characteristics of a particular sample and consequently will perform worse on unseen data. Failure to account for this inherent optimism is especially pernicious when the number of possible predictors is high relative to the number of participants, a common scenario in psychiatric neuroimaging. We show via simulated data that models can appear predictive even when data and outcomes are random, and we note examples of optimistic prediction in the literature. We provide some recommendations for assessment of model performance.

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Authors: Whelan, R., & Garavan, H.
Affiliations: University of Vermont (US)
Corresponding author: Garavan, Hugh
ORCID: Whelan, Robert
Garavan, Hugh
Venue: Biological Psychiatry
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2014-05
Volume: 75
Issue: 9
Pages: 746-748
ISSN: 0006-3223 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.biopsych.2013.05.014
OpenAlex: W1979450493
Cited by: 209
References: 40
Citations by year: 2026: 13 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 6
FWCI: 7.09
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Biological Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Functional Brain Connectivity Studies
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
Keywords: optimism bias, overfitting, model evaluation, psychiatric neuroimaging, outcome prediction, high-dimensional predictors, regression models, depression treatment response, recurrence prediction, conversion to dementia
MeSH terms: Brain, Computer Simulation, Humans, Regression Analysis, ROC Curve, Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted, Neuroimaging

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When Optimism Hurts: Inflated Predictions in Psychiatric Neuroimaging

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