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Psychosocial functioning and the cortisol awakening response: Meta-analysis, P-curve analysis, and evaluation of the evidential value in existing studies
Open accessAbstract
Cortisol levels rise immediately after awakening and peak approximately 30-45 minutes thereafter. Psychosocial functioning influences this cortisol awakening response (CAR), but there is considerable heterogeneity in the literature. The current study used p-curve and metaanalysis on 709 findings from 212 studies to test the evidential value and estimate effect sizes of four sets of findings: those associating worse psychosocial functioning with higher or lower cortisol increase relative to the waking period (CARi) and to the output of the waking period (AUCw). All four sets of findings demonstrated evidential value. Psychosocial predictors explained 1%-3.6% of variance in CARi and AUCw responses. Based on these effect sizes, cross-sectional studies assessing CAR would need a minimum sample size of 617-783 to detect true effects with 80% power. Depression was linked to higher AUCw and posttraumatic stress to lower AUCw, whereas inconclusive results were obtained for predictor-specific effects on CARi. Suggestions for future CAR research are discussed.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This study combined p-curve and meta-analysis on 709 findings from 212 studies and found evidential value for all four sets of associations between worse psychosocial functioning and higher/lower CARi and AUCw. Effects were small, explaining about 1%–3.6% of variance, with depression linked to higher AUCw and posttraumatic stress to lower AUCw.
Key findings
- All four sets of findings showed evidential value: worse psychosocial functioning with higher CARi (k = 37, p = .001), lower CARi (k = 42, p < .001), higher AUCw (k = 19, p = .008), and lower AUCw (k = 19, p = .006).
- Effect sizes were small: p-curve-derived estimates were r = .08 for higher CARi, r = .09 for lower CARi, r = .09 for higher AUCw, and r = .19 for lower AUCw; meta-analytic estimates were r = .09, r = .12, r = .08, and r = .10, respectively. Psychosocial predictors explained approximately 1% of variance in CARi and up to 3.6% in lower AUCw.
- Predictor-specific results: depression was linked to higher AUCw (r = .07, p < .001), posttraumatic stress to lower AUCw (r = .08, p = .03), and fatigue/burnout/exhaustion was most strongly associated with lower CARi (r = .09, p = .003, with trend-level publication bias p = .07). Other predictor-specific effects were nonsignificant, but p-curves could not rule out evidential value.
- Power analysis indicated cross-sectional studies would need a minimum sample size of 617–783 to detect true effects with 80% power; approximately 11% of studies had at least this sample size, 58% had N < 100, and 28% had N < 50.
Methods
- The study updated Chida and Steptoe (2009), searching Medline, PsycINFO, Pubmed, and Web of Science for “cortisol,” “awakening,” and “response”; inclusion required English, peer-reviewed articles with at least one psychosocial functioning measure and one CAR measure, excluding medical conditions and biological predictors. The final sample combined 159 new articles with 54 prior articles, yielding 709 findings from 212 articles.
- P-curve analyses tested evidential value for four sets of significant findings and estimated effect sizes; random-effects meta-analyses estimated aggregate correlations using Fisher’s z, with Egger’s test for publication bias. Predictor-specific p-curves and meta-analyses examined seven psychosocial predictor categories.
- Study quality was scored 0–8 based on control for age, gender, smoking, medications, weekday/weekend, waking time, protocol adherence, and clear collection instructions; data were double-checked, with >90% agreement on a 15-article subset.
Limitations
- Stated: only published literature was included, so unpublished findings and conference abstracts were excluded and true effects may be smaller than reported.
- Stated: the study tested only bivariate correlations for CARi and AUCw, not more dynamic CAR measures such as flexibility; only linear effects were examined despite some quadratic effects; alternate conceptualizations of psychosocial predictors are possible; the time window of predictors was not assessed; and strict inclusion of healthy participants limits generalization to medically compromised populations.
- Evident from the text: the study was underpowered to detect moderation and some predictor-specific effects, and some sets had relatively few independent significant findings (e.g., k = 19 for AUCw sets).
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Claims the paper makes
61 Own result · 44 Not checked yet · 26 Own interpretation · 13 No basis given · 10 Own method · 1 Sources not found
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Posttraumatic stress predictors also contained evidential value”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Predictor-Specific Effects
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, p-curve analysis revealed that the findings associating worse psychosocial functioning with lower AUCw had evidential value (k = 19; p = .006; see Figure 2d).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning with Lower AUCw
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All four sets of findings demonstrated evidential value.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There was no difference in mean study quality among those findings associating worse psychosocial functioning to higher CARi (M = 6.00, SD = 1.70), lower CARi (M = 6.08, SD = 1.73), higher AUCw (M = 6.14, SD = 1.49), or lower AUCw (M = 6.38, SD = 1.20), F (3,203) = 0.25, p = .83.”
- Also stated in: § Evidential Value of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR · hedged
“Analysis revealed that study quality among different CAR measures and different predictor types was similar”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Quality of the Study as a Potential Source of Variance
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Evidential Value of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR · hedged
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The p-curve-derived estimate of effect size for this set of findings was r = .09.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Evidential Value of Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning to Lower CARi
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a cross-sectional study would need a minimum sample size of 617-783 to detect true effects with 80% power.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Psychosocial predictors explained 1%-3.6% of variance in CARi and AUCw responses.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For findings examining total cortisol output, those associating worse psychosocial functioning to greater AUCw has a similar effect size (r = .09 from the p-curve-derived estimate and .08 from the meta-analytic estimate).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similar to CARi findings, p-curve analysis revealed that the findings associating worse psychosocial functioning with higher AUCw had evidential value (k = 19; p = .008; see Figure 2c).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning with Higher AUCw
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When using traditional meta-analytic techniques (n = 275), the overall effect size was r =.12, CI = [0.10, 0.15], p < .001.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Evidential Value of Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning to Lower CARi
plaincorrelationaln = 275 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 33
- Probably not a substantial claim. 38
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Approximately 22% of the significant findings in this set involved general life stress, 18% positive psychosocial traits, 16% anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect, 14% posttraumatic stress, 11% job stress, 10% depression, and 9% fatigue/burnout/exhaustion.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning with Lower AUCw
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Approximately 37% of the significant findings in this set involved general life stress, 15% depression, 14% anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect, 12% positive psychosocial traits, 11% job stress, 8% posttraumatic stress, and 3% fatigue/burnout/exhaustion.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning with Higher CARi
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, findings associating worse psychosocial functioning to lower AUCw had a larger effect, with approximately 3.6% of variance being accounted for (r = .19 from the p-curve-derived estimate and .10 from the meta-analytic estimate).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The average number of sampling days was just over two days.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Study Characteristics and Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In total, 159 articles met criteria for the updated literature review.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Sources and Study Selection
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table 1 reveals that studies were, on average, of medium to high quality, although quality scores varied considerably.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Study Characteristics and Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, the current study included 709 findings from 212 articles.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Sources and Study Selection
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of 32 authors contacted, 19 responded, and 17 provided additional data.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Sources and Study Selection
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most frequently assessed psychosocial predictors were those assessing general life stress, depression, positive psychosocial traits, and anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Study Characteristics and Quality
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Approximately 33% of the significant findings in this set involved general life stress, 23% positive psychosocial traits, 17% depression, 9% anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect, 7% posttraumatic stress, 6% fatigue/burnout/exhaustion, and 5% job stress.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Evidential Value of Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning to Lower CARi
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Approximately 24% of the significant findings in this set involved depression, 19% general life stress, 17% positive psychosocial traits, 16% anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect, 12% job stress, 7% fatigue/burnout/exhaustion, and 5% posttraumatic stress.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning with Higher AUCw
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results did not differ with these approaches; thus, reported results include all effect sizes.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the current study, approximately 11% of the studies had at least this sample size; approximately 58% had a sample size less than 100, and 28% had a sample size less than 50.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite not being statistically significant, the direction of the correlations revealed that job stress and anxiety/neuroticism/negative affect were positively correlated with CARi and AUCw, whereas general life stress and positive psychosocial traits were negatively correlated with CARi and AUCw.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Predictor-Specific Effects
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“AUCw was positively associated with depression but negatively associated with PTSD.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Predictor-Specific Effects
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As with CARi, the other associations were not statistically significant, but p-curves could not rule out the possibility that they contain evidential value.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Predictor-Specific Effects
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Findings associating depression, posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and fatigue demonstrated evidential value, and evidential value could not be ruled out for other psychosical predictors.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Conclusion
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Notably, there were too few studies with a sufficient number of days to compare the p-curves of those with theoretically insufficient and sufficient sampling frames for reliability, and almost none of the studies reported the empirical reliability of their CAR measurement.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The modal number of sampling days in the studies reviewed was one (range = 1 to 9).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, a potential problem with meta-analysis is the file drawer problem, where studies are “filed away” unpublished if they fail to find statistically significant relationships.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Rosenthal et al., 1979 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Over time, this practice artificially inflates Type I error and may make it appear that relationships exist when in reality they do not (Rosenthal et al., 1979).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Rosenthal et al., 1979 source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“but positively correlated in another (Mommersteeg et al., 2006)”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Mommersteeg et al., 2006 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“p-curve analysis is based on the mathematical principle that if the null hypothesis is true, the probability of a p-value falling within a range of possible values is the same for all bins of the same size (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014a, 2014b, 2015).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014a, 2014b, 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Chida and Steptoe (2009) described seven different types of psychosocial predictors: job stress, general life stress (non-work-related), depression, anxiety (including neuroticism and negative affect), fatigue/burnout/exhaustion, posttraumatic stress, and positive psychosocial traits.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chida & Steptoe, 2009 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Cortisol is a steroid hormone involved in glucose regulation and metabolism that is frequently labeled a stress hormone because its levels change markedly in response to stressors (see Sapolsky, 2004 for a review).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Sapolsky, 2004
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this case, a curve of all the significant p-values within a set of findings (i.e., a p-curve) will be flat.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Cortisol levels rise steeply immediately after awakening in the morning and peak approximately 30-45 minutes thereafter; from there, they slowly decrease throughout the day.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Cortisol levels rise immediately after awakening and peak approximately 30-45 minutes thereafter.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Pruessner, 1997 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
In the paper
“The CAR is responsive to stress perception and anticipation of daily stressors, making it particularly interesting to psychologists (Fries, Dettenborn, & Kirschbaum, 2009).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Fries, Dettenborn, & Kirschbaum, 2009
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It may be that worse psychosocial functioning over time blunts the overall output of the CAR system while keeping the dynamic component intact.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Data abstraction for the articles in the current study was done by one of the first three authors (IB, CH, EH) and double-checked by another of these authors.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Abstraction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Prentice and Miller (1992) argue that small effects are impressive when the dependent variable is not expected to be easily influenced by the independent variable.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Prentice and Miller (1992) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it may be that true effects exist but that the current study was underpowered to detect them.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Predictor-Specific Effects
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, correlations obtained with small sample sizes are unstable and can result in Type I error.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A randomly selected subset of 15 articles were independently coded by all three authors, and there was high corroboration on the data that were extracted (>90% agreement on each variable).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Abstraction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On one hand, underpowered studies may fail to find significant effects when in reality they exist; in those instances, the resources spent for that study are lost and Type II error appears in the literature or, more likely, contribute to the file drawer problem.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“again leaving open the possibility that true effects exist but that the current study was underpowered to detect them.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Predictor-Specific Effects
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This point estimate can then be compared to a meta-analytic point estimate to assess for systematic bias in the literature.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Chida and Steptoe (2009) described seven categories of psychosocial predictors that have been associated with the CAR: job stress, general life stress, depression, anxiety, fatigue/burnout/exhaustion, posttraumatic stress, and positive psychosocial traits.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chida and Steptoe (2009) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This heterogeneity is partially the result of methodological and operationalization inconsistencies across studies and potential measure-dependent and/or predictor-specific associations (Chida & Steptoe, 2009; Stadler et al., 2016).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chida & Steptoe, 2009 source
- Not checked yetcites Stadler et al., 2016
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If more than one significant relationship was reported from the same sample, or if samples were partially overlapping (i.e., females only in one effect, and males and females in another), the effect with the largest sample size was chosen for inclusion in the p-curve.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Methods > Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If indeed the CARi represents an adaptive response to stressors, this may be the most adaptive pattern for those high in psychosocial stress: it would allow them to maintain dynamic flexibility in the CAR system without having chronically high levels of cortisol output overall.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Likewise, some enumerative measures of immune functioning like monocyte counts, T-lymphocyte counts, and granulocyte counts have small to moderate correlations (r's < .10) with acute time-limited stress and chronic stress, although correlations are larger for other measueres of immunity like immunoglobulin and cytokine levels (r's between .10 and .30; Segerstrom & Miller, 2004).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Segerstrom & Miller, 2004 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, a limitation of the current study is that it used strict inclusion criteria of healthy participants and as such, results cannot generalize to medically compromised populations.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the directionality of the discrepancy suggests that the published literature is systematically underestimating the true effects (i.e., the p-curve estimate is larger than the meta-analysis estimate).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Testing for Systematic Bias in the Literature
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, the current study finds reliable evidence that psychosocial functioning influence the CAR, and provides the most thorough estimate of effect sizes by predictor and CAR measure to date.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Conclusion
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, in the greater context of psychoneuroendocrinological research, the CAR may not be the most sensitive biological marker for chronic stress, but still sensitive enough that continuing to study the relationships is a worthwhile endeavor.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It suggests that the CAR may promote adaptive physiological responses to complex social stimuli, and may have implications for when, how, and why the CAR evolved”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A third limitation is that the current study only examined linear effects, despite some studies describing quadratic effects (Gustafsson et al., 2010).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Gustafsson et al., 2010 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This corroborates meta-analytic results from Chida and Steptoe (2009).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Predictor-Specific Effects
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chida and Steptoe, 2009 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some of the seven categories are theoretically ambiguous and frequently co-occur in the real world (e.g., depression and anxiety).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the articles and findings reported in the current study were all from the published literature; poster abstracts, conference proceedings, and unpublished data were not included.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it may be that the true CAR effects are smaller than those reported in the current study.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second limitation is that the study only tested bivariate correlations among psychosocial predictors and levels of CARi and AUCw, but other more dynamic measures of the CAR are possible.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, despite the recent controversies surrounding questionable research practices in psychology and other disciplines, evidence from this study suggests that the associations of psychosocial functioning and the CAR represent true effects with evidential value.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Testing for Systematic Bias in the Literature
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: In most cases, researchers will p-hack until the p-value falls just below .05.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“results from the current study suggest that large samples are needed to minimize the likelihood that Type I and II error rates make their way into the literature.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Conclusion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“Recently published guidelines provide concrete and clear recommendations for researchers (Stadler et al., 2016)”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Conclusion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Stadler et al., 2016
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A fifth limitation is that the time window of psycholosocial predictors was not assessed.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is particularly refreshing news because the potential for researchers to engage in p-hacking and other questionable research practices is high in CAR research, as there are a number of design decisions, analytical techniques, and ambiguities with operational definitions which can be modified post-hoc.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Testing for Systematic Bias in the Literature
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, p-curve analysis testing against evidential value were non-significant in all cases, suggesting that the extant literature is underpowered to detect effects if they exist.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Predictor-Specific Effects
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A fourth limitation is that alternate conceptualizations of psychosocial predictors besides the seven categories reported are possible.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Limitations
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For example, diurnal cortisol levels demonstrate small to moderate correlations with depression (r = .18; Burke et al., 2005) and chronic stress (Miller, Chen, and Zhou, 2007), and these relationships depend on a number of measurement, appraisal, and contextual variables (Miller, Chen, and Zhou, 2007).”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
What the sources say
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
There are no norms for the CAR.
“because there are no norms for the CAR”
The paper relies on this without support.
Small sample sizes, often under 100 participants, are typical of the CAR literature.
“small sample sizes (N < 100) that are characteristic of the literature.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The psychosocial-functioning and CAR literature has more than doubled in the past six years.
“The literature on psychosocial functioning and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) has more than doubled in the last six years”
The paper relies on this without support.
Meta-analyses can be biased by Type 1 error.
“but meta-analyses can be biased by Type 1 error.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The p-curve-derived estimate can be considered a less biased measure for gauging effect size.
“To the extent that the p-curve-derived estimate can be considered a less biased measure for gauging effect size”
The paper relies on this without support.
Psychosocial predictors influence the CAR.
“Psychosocial predictors are thought to influence the CAR”
The paper relies on this without support.
There are not enough findings in the extant literature to detect moderation effects.
“there are not enough findings in the extant literature”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is no theoretical framework for making predictions about moderation.
“nor is there a theoretical framework for making predictions about moderation”
The paper relies on this without support.
In most cases, researchers will p-hack until the p-value falls just below .05.
“In most cases, researchers will p-hack until the p-value falls to just under .05.”
The paper relies on this without support.
A solid theoretical framework exists for the seven psychosocial predictor categories.
“Nevertheless, solid theoretical scaffolding exists for the seven categories”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Trait psychosocial tendencies can predict trait like allostatic responses to a small extent, such as accounting for variance (less than 5%) in the cortisol awaking response (Boggero et al., 2017), serving as a piece of the foundation for understanding how stress becomes embedded in long term health.”
From More than a feeling: A unified view of stress measurement for population science (2018) · cites this paper as Boggero et al., 2017
Statistics that don’t add up
Each reported p-value recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
“F (3,203) = 0.25, p = .83”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Quality of the Study as a Potential Source of Variance
Reported p = .83 · recomputed p = .861
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Doesn’t add upF(3, 203) = 0.25reported p = .83 · recomputed p = .861
“F (3,203) = 0.25, p = .83”
- ConsistentF(6, 693) = 0.87reported p = .52 · recomputed p = .516
“F (6, 693) = 0.87, p = .52”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Results > Evidential Value of Findings Associating Worse Psychosocial Functioning to Lower CARi
“The p-curve-derived estimate of effect size for this set of findings was r = .09.”
§ Psychosocial Functioning and the Cortisol Awakening Response: Meta-analysis, P-curve Analysis, and Evaluation of the Evidential Value in Existing Studies > Discussion > Effect Sizes of Findings Associating Psychosocial Predictors to the CAR, and Implications for Power Analysis
“r = .08 for higher CARi and .11 for lower CARi using p-curve-derived estimate”
Citations
Cites
Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test
Egger, M., Smith, G. D., Schneider, M., & Minder, C. (1997) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.315.7109.629 · Cited by 56,722
The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results.
Rosenthal, R. (1979) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.86.3.638 · Cited by 9,068
Molecular Mechanisms of Depression: Perspectives on New Treatment Strategies
Lang, U. E., & Borgwardt, S. (2013) · Cellular Physiology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1159/000350094 · Cited by 8,526
Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797611417632 · Cited by 6,567
Psychological stress and the human immune system: a meta-analytic study of 30 Years of inquiry
Segerstrom, S. C., & Miller, G. E. (2004) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.130.4.601 · Cited by 3,334 · cited 1×
“…counts, and granulocyte counts have small to moderate correlations (r's < .10) with acute time-limited stress and chronic stress, although correlations are larger for other measueres of immunity like immunoglobulin and cytokine levels (r's between .10 and .30; Segerstrom & Miller, 2004).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMiller, G. E., Chen, E., & Zhou, E. S. (2007) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.25 · Cited by 2,467 · cited 2×
“For example, diurnal cortisol levels demonstrate small to moderate correlations with depression (r = .18; Burke et al., 2005) and chronic stress (Miller, Chen, and Zhou, 2007), and these relationships depend on a number of measurement, appraisal, and contextual variables (Miller, Chen, and Zhou,…”
BackgroundP-curve: A key to the file-drawer.
Simonsohn, U., Nelson, L. D., & Simmons, J. P. (2014) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: General · doi:10.1037/a0033242 · Cited by 1,500 · cited 6×
“These alternatives were differentiated by testing the set of findings against a null of 33% power as outlined by Simonsohn et al. (2014); if significant, findings could be assumed to lack evidential value; otherwise, evidential value could not be confirmed or denied.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPruessner, J. C., Wolf, O. T., Hellhammer, D. H., Buske-Kirschbaum, A., von Auer, K., Jobst, S., Kaspers, F., & Kirschbaum, C. (1997) · Life Sciences · doi:10.1016/s0024-3205(97)01008-4 · Cited by 1,450
Beyond Power Calculations: Assessing Type S (Sign) and Type M (Magnitude) Errors
Gelman, A., & Carlin, J. (2014) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691614551642 · Cited by 1,343
Steptoe, A., Hamer, M., & Chida, Y. (2007) · Brain, Behavior, and Immunity · doi:10.1016/j.bbi.2007.03.011 · Cited by 1,278
Cited by
Sorted by citations
More than a feeling: A unified view of stress measurement for population science
Epel, E. S., Crosswell, A. D., Mayer, S. E., Prather, A. A., Slavich, G. M., Puterman, E., & Mendes, W. B. (2018) · Frontiers in Neuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.yfrne.2018.03.001 · Cited by 1,077
“Trait psychosocial tendencies can predict trait like allostatic responses to a small extent, such as accounting for variance (less than 5%) in the cortisol awaking response (Boggero et al., 2017), serving as a piece of the foundation for understanding how stress becomes embedded in long term health.”
BackgroundStress and Health: A Review of Psychobiological Processes
O'Connor, D. B., Thayer, J. F., & Vedhara, K. (2021) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-062520-122331 · Cited by 948
“More recently, Boggero et al. (2017), using a combination of meta-analysis and P-curve analysis, also found divergent findings with depression being linked to higher CAR and posttraumatic stress being linked to lower CAR.”
ResultThe Stressful Personality: A Meta-Analytical Review of the Relation Between Personality and Stress
Luo, J., Zhang, B., Cao, M., & Roberts, B. W. (2022) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1177/10888683221104002 · Cited by 233
Asarnow, L. D. (2019) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2019.12.002 · Cited by 121
Tobias Stalder, A., LUPIEN, S. J., Kudielka, B. M., Adam, E. K., Pruessner, J. C., Wüst, S., Dockray, S., Smyth, N., Evans, P. D., Kirschbaum, C., et al. (2022) · Psychoneuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2022.105946 · Cited by 115
Metadata
- Authors
- Boggero, I. A., Hostinar, C. E., Haak, E. A., Murphy, M. L. M., & Segerstrom, S. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Kentucky (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Boggero, Ian A.
- Venue
- Biological Psychology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-10
- Volume
- 129
- Pages
- 207-230
- ISSN
- 0301-0511 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5673546
- OpenAlex
- W2754000831
- Semantic Scholar
- e07eb5c5d22ab346723510f19f1edf0ceb96d3ca
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 252
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 8
- FWCI
- 0.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Biological Psychology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- UKnowledge (University of Kentucky) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (F31-AG048692, K02-AG033629)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Behavioral Neuroscience › Stress Responses and Cortisol
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Adrenal Hormones and Disorders
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Keywords
- cortisol awakening response, psychosocial functioning, depression, post-traumatic stress, circadian rhythm, evidentiary value, p-curve, sample size determination, effect size
- MeSH terms
- Circadian Rhythm, Humans, Hydrocortisone, Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System, Pituitary-Adrenal System, Saliva, Social Adjustment, Stress, Psychological, Wakefulness
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-09, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-09 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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