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Cited by 40Global Cancer Incidence and ScreeningSmoking Behavior and CessationLung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment

Lung cancer incidence trends in Uruguay 1990–2014: An age-period-cohort analysis

Alonso, Rafael, Piñeros, Marion, Laversanne, Mathieu, Musetti, Carina, Garau, Mariela, Barrios, Enrique, Bray, Freddie·2018·Cancer Epidemiology
DOI 10.1016/j.canep.2018.04.012
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Abstract

Background Uruguay, a country with one of the highest lung cancer rates worldwide, initiated a series of comprehensive anti-smoking measures in 2005. We assess the tobacco control policies in the context of cohort-driven lung cancer incidence trends over a 25-year period, providing baseline predictions to 2035. Methods Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Uruguay, an age-period-cohort analysis of trends 1990-2014 was performed. The NORDPRED package was used to predict the annual number of new cases of lung cancer and incidence rates up to 2035. Results In men, age-standardised (world) rates declined from a peak of 165.6 in 1995 to 103.1 by 2014, translating to a 70% reduction in the risk of lung cancer in men born in 1970 relative to the early-1940s. In females, rates increased steadily from 18.3 in 1991 to 30.0 by 2014, with successive increases in risk among generations of women born 1940-1960. There is however evidence of a decline in observed rates in women born recently. Extrapolations of the trends indicate an 8% reduction in the mean number of new lung cancer cases in men by 2035, but a 69% increase in women. Conclusion Despite observed and predicted reductions in lung cancer incidence in Uruguayan men, rates among women are set to continue to increase, with a large rise in the annual number of female lung cancer diagnoses expected before 2035. There are signals of a diminishing risk among recent generations of women born after 1960. The current analysis provides important baseline information in assessing the future impact of the recent tobacco control initiatives in Uruguay.

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Crossref · 10.1016/j.canep.2018.04.012

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  • Among men, a diminution in smoking prevalence, followed by a peak and decline in lung cancer rates in the same generations, was first reported in several high-income countries where smoking was first established, with a 20-25 year lag.

    “Among men, a diminution in smoking prevalence, followed by a peak and decline in lung cancer rates in the same generations, was first reported in several high-income countries where smoking was first established (e.g., the United Kingdom and the United States), with steep increase, peak, and subsequent decline in the lung cancer rates mirroring those of smoking prevalence albeit a 20-25 years lag.”

    From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [16]

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Authors
Alonso, R., Piñeros, M., Laversanne, M., Musetti, C., Garau, M., Barrios, E., & Bray, F.
Affiliations
  • Comisión Honoraria de Lucha contra el cáncer (UY)
  • Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
Corresponding author
Alonso, Rafael
ORCID
Venue
Cancer Epidemiology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-08
Volume
55
Pages
17-22
ISSN
1877-7821 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.canep.2018.04.012
OpenAlex
W2804239158
Cited by
40
References
27
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 2
FWCI
1.80
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Cancer Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
International Agency for Research on Cancer (ICR-GICR16434469)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
Keywords
lung cancer incidence, incidence trends, tobacco control, sex differences in lung cancer, cohort effects, age-standardized incidence rate, incidence projections, Uruguay
MeSH terms
Smoking Prevention, Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Middle Aged, Registries, Uruguay, Cohort Studies, Incidence

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